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Ben Bailey

@benfb

Sr. Data Engineer at Workleap // I write about baseball at cubofcoffee.com and other things at benbailey.me // Hampshire College alumn

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29.05.2023
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Latest posts by Ben Bailey @benfb

Ah, got him mixed up with others. Thanks!

02.03.2026 06:04 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Wouldn't be surprised if Ryan Rolison ends up with Little's 40-man roster spot before an opt-out date

01.03.2026 21:50 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Good example of a veteran Spring Training outing for Colin Rea--threw all his pitches a couple of times, mostly used his fastball, velo was already around where it was last year

22.02.2026 21:17 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

The Cardinals have had several guys near the top of the 4S cut leaderboard for a few years and acquired two this year in Fitts and Dobbins, too. Lots of relative cut in the NL Central

13.02.2026 20:46 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Let's Find an Optionable Starting Pitcher Even after signing Kyle Wright to a minor league deal, it feels like the Cubs are still looking for more starting pitching. This can either come in the form of free agents with guaranteed MLB deals, o...

As the Cubs continue to search for pitching depth, I put together 1000 words on optionable starting pitchers around the league that could be available and fit some traits the Cubs have looked for cubofcoffee.com/lets-find-an...

11.02.2026 15:58 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Big fan of the various pitchers on MiLB deals the Cubs have managed to bring in this offseason. No one should expect another Brad Keller, but there are a lot of fun options

11.02.2026 00:15 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

It’s very funny that Cubs fans spent a lot of last year complaining about how Collins and Durbin weren’t as good as their top line numbers and the Brewers traded both

09.02.2026 20:22 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

If the Giants were reportedly willing to give up Josuar Gonzalez for a second baseman with a 106 wRC+ projection who hasn't played 2B much in the majors, have I got the player for them (with twice the team control!)

24.01.2026 19:12 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

It’s a good thing the Cubs have so many players participating in the WBC so fans can actually watch their players in March

23.01.2026 06:19 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
2026 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs The 2026 Cubs look a lot like the 2025 Cubs, which is pretty good.

The 2026 ZiPS projections for the Chicago Cubs are now up on @fangraphs.com.

blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-zips-pr...

21.01.2026 18:10 πŸ‘ 30 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Kyle Tucker is an excellent baseball player and fixes the Dodgers' biggest weakness, while being one of the less pleasant to watch great players I've seen

16.01.2026 03:06 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Though then the Cubs would need to backfill the backup infielder role, and may be left without a 2B in 2027, if they believe in the pitcher they get back in a trade, it could be easier to replace a 2B than an SP (despite what the 2027 FA are)

14.01.2026 22:49 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Probably wishful thinking, but with the Red Sox signing a starter and having a franchise record luxury tax payroll, I wonder if they might look more for a pre-arb bat than a later-arb bat like Donovan or Paredes (or Hoerner). Wonder if a framework built around Early for Shaw makes some sense…

14.01.2026 22:49 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

The vs. righties lineup feels pretty easy to draw up. Harder to nail the one vs. lefties because there’s more platoon flexibility (Shaw, Swanson, Hoerner, C, Suzuki, Bregman all better vs. L, Ballesteros, PCA, Busch, Happ all better vs. R) and not sure how much they’ll use Austin yet.

14.01.2026 05:40 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Tentatively, vs. R:

1B Busch
3B Bregman
LF Happ
RF Suzuki
CF Crow-Armstrong
2B Hoerner
DH Ballesteros
C Kelly
SS Swanson

(Wouldn’t be surprised if PCA and Ballesteros swap)

Vs. L:

2B Hoerner
3B Bregman
LF Happ
RF Suzuki
1B Busch/Austin
C Kelly
CF Crow-Armstrong
DH Austin/Shaw
SS Swanson

14.01.2026 05:40 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

A little surprised that we got a Passan tweet that mentioned two possibilities of moves (and not a done deal) and neither has happened yet.

13.01.2026 22:03 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Dansby should switch his number to 1

11.01.2026 17:31 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Four takeaways in wake of Alex Bregman’s five-year, $175 million deal with Cubs What's next for the Cubs, Scott Boras' winning strategy, Cody Bellinger's demands and the Red Sox's pursuit of Bo Bichette.

(From www.nytimes.com/athletic/696...)

11.01.2026 06:14 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Maybe the most surprising thing about the Bregman deal is that the Cubs finally were willing to include deferrals again

11.01.2026 06:13 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Might not age well, but hey, about time

11.01.2026 03:51 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Some great discussion from Jordan and Lance on Cabrera’s arsenal here. Can’t wait to see what the Cubs do with it

09.01.2026 23:21 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The Cubs seem high on Ballesteros’ ability to immediately hit, their lack of other SP prospects besides Wiggins, and the likely growing pains always pointed to Owen Caissie being the best prospect traded for a starter. The Marlins just had success with a similar skill set in Kyle Stowers as well.

07.01.2026 21:28 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Pitch movement (horizontal) leaderboard strikes again

07.01.2026 20:30 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Edward Cubrera

07.01.2026 17:09 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Lining up with the market’s, similar to at the trade deadline, and they need to figure out how to compensate for that while improving their amateur pitching development.

02.01.2026 23:22 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

So the Cubs can improve their SP development, or go out of their comfort zone in either direction on contract terms, or (most likely what they’ll attempt) focus on making sure their evaluations on the mid tier SP FAs are as accurate as possible, but it seems clear that their SP value isn’t…

02.01.2026 23:22 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Partially because they have one good pitching prospect who they’re probably hesitant to move. This leaves you in a situation where to get starters you’re often playing in the 2-4 year, 20-22M AAV range of the market, which tends to be a risky area. You have to really nail the evaluation there…

02.01.2026 23:22 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Which often come from players with QOs causing their markets to collapse and often have several opt outs, which the Cubs seem to not be interested in this offseason (King, Imai). The other way to get high end pitching is via trade, but the Cubs haven’t been able to find a match there…

02.01.2026 23:22 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I didn’t love Imai’s profile as a pitcher, so I’m not too upset the Cubs missed out on him. The issue for the Cubs, though, is that if they don’t like giving out long-term (5+ year) deals for SP (which often include deferrals, the alternatives are often short-term, high-AAV deals…

02.01.2026 23:22 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Projections are more useful than last year's numbers, but here are the average 2025 ERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP of the four relievers the Cubs have signed to MLB deals this offseason, weighted by total batters faced:

ERA: 3.11
xERA: 3.09
FIP: 3.35
xFIP: 3.83

23.12.2025 23:45 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0