Soccer Betting (Neil Mac)

My bets for today

whop.com/neil-macs-so...

Heidenheim vs Chelsea

Nkunku on pens, 2.4 to score here

1.42 goals per 90 in Europe this season
1.09 xG per 90

Today's picks

Sturm Graz vs Girona
Girona at 2.1 - 2 units

Double: Villa +0.5 AH & PSV at 1.99 - 3 units

Celtic vs Club Brugge
Celtic Over 1.5 Team Goals at 1.92 - 2 units

Dinamo Zagreb vs Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund -0.75 AH at 1.89 - 2 units

Saturday's Tips

Paraguay dead on their feet, can't counter despite some huge holes in the Bolivian defence

Bolivia look like they should have been priced 1.2 today

Today's action

Austria - Slovenia - 2 units

Austria - Slovenia
Under 2.5 Total Goals at 2.03

England vs Ireland
Over 2.75 Total Goals at 1.92 2.5 units

Finland vs Greece
Both teams to score: Yes at 2.00 2 units

Double
Belgium ML + France +0.5 AH at 2.28 2 units

Türkiye vs Wales
BTTS: Yes at 1.91

- Wales shouldn't fear Türkiye, they racked up 1.95xG and 15 attempts on goal when they met at Cardiff
- Türkiye with 9 competitive games in last 12 months, 1.88xG p90, 1.4xGA p90
- Only 2 clean sheets from Türkiye in that sample (Wales & Montenegro)

Montenegro games over the last 12 months have averaged 3.1 combined xG per match while Iceland's averages have been even higher

Georgia +0.5 + Over 1.5 Goals in Montenegro/Iceland at 1.95
- Georgia will be desperate to avoid defeat to hold onto their position
- In the last meeting they played out a close game, with home advantage I give the edge to Georgia
- Georgia with a healthy +0.83xGD at home over the last 12 months

For what it's worth, I think the bet for Tyson-Paul later is over 5.5 rounds at 1.83

This is an exhibition with 14oz gloves so I don't see a KO

Good chance there's an agreement for Paul to take it easy on the old man too.

Colombia +0.25 AH

San Marino vs Gibraltar
San Marino +0.25 AH at 1.8 (shortened since I posted this morning)

🌍 AFCON ⚽

Angola vs Ghana

Ghana Draw no Bet at 2.08