I’m still fascinated by what the canary in the coal mine will be. We probably won’t know for a couple more quarters after it happens but what gets the hopium to fully drain out of the market?
Bit of a tough one, but if could perhaps rub the crystal ball, what do you think the first piece (or maybe pieces to make it a little easier) of hard data that really gets the ball rolling downhill?
I think we need another flush to below 4500 plus the 10-year >4.75 as the strike price before there’s serious talks. Where are you right now in terms of the strike price? I’m watching the NY Rs in the house as well as some of the other Moderates. Think the Senate has a higher strike price.
What a fascinating echo chamber of replies.
Private credit >>> AAA subprime MBS??? Big Short 2 coming to theaters in 2032…
Couldn’t agree more. The fact that there is such interest in the expansion of a secondaries market should be a massive red flag. Since when did a GP want to give away returns unless what is being held is crap?
Up until now, I have cared less about all of the crazy and bad policy. Baked in to the election outcome. This is such bad politics. I’m not progressive at all and this status quo to preserve the lesser of two evils/“wait and see” is so bleh. Let Elon and DJT run amok. Voters will decide in 2026
80k in student loans, 3 months out of college and Lehman (my employer at the time) goes bankrupt on my birthday as I sit hungover in my 400 sq ft apartment. I went to the bar and drank with my future best men until 4:00 am. Couldn’t document a thing and wouldn’t want it any other way.
They planned for a deceleration in fundraising (hence many moving towards inorganic growth in the insurance space and more control of the capital allocation timing) but there definitely was (is) hubris around “we can exit in any market environment.” As Rowan says, “illiquidity for excess return.”
Secondaries marketplace is about to get real
…. But he will definitely figure it out by the second year.
My default has always been chaos in the executive and legislative and this amuse bouche pre-inauguration seems to booster chaos. But 1) chaos means there will be some chunky/impactful “good” and “bad” outcomes. And 2) our gaze is currently turned away from the other 9 people’s outsized power.
Is it me or is there a little bit of his tone (and in substance) that is “I got us this far but good luck to us all figuring out what the next 12 months looks like” (with a general hand wave at the White House and Capitol)?
What’s your gut on probability for a cut in the Dec meeting right now?
Just got a “but mommy does it this way…” today. We are thinking of dividing and conquering subjects.
