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21.02.2026 19:18
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US President Donald Trump has other options to impose tariffs after the Supreme Court said his use of a 1977 emergency law is invalid. Here's what to know
Is... is everything a lie?
Powell addressed the American people in a video message on Sunday night.
Closing out 2025 with unemployment creeping up... www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...
While markets are mellowing a bit, three major stock indexes closed at record highs on Thursday.
Plus: Farm drones, holiday shopping, and a recap of the week’s economic headlines.
Today on Marketplace.
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism jumped 9.1% to 47.9 in Dec, rebounding after the gov’t shutdown and beating expectations (44.1). Still below the neutral 50 line for a 4th month, signaling cautious sentiment. www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/202...
Dollar Index slipped to 99.3, a 2-week low, as weak data and dovish Fed commentary boost expectations for a final 2025 rate cut. Markets now price an 87% chance of a cut next week.
The S&P 500 is down 0.2% this month, on track for its first monthly decline since April.
US data showed soft September retail sales and a sharp ADP hiring slowdown, reinforcing signals of cooling demand. Fed officials Waller and Williams voiced support for a year-end cut, and markets now price an ~87% chance of a 25 bps reduction next month.
US 10-year yield falls below 4% as markets sharply boost Fed cut odds—now ~85% for December vs. ~39% last week, with more cuts priced through 2026. Reports Kevin Hassett may be the next Fed Chair and solid data + expected FDIC SLR relief are also lifting Treasuries.
Consumer Sentiment Index from 1970 to date
Tech layoffs, continued inflation and tariff woes...Consumer sentiment is now at all time low.
President Trump’s use of broad powers to impose his signature tariffs faced a barrage of skeptical questions at the Supreme Court on Wednesday that signal it may be ready to intervene
Is there an AI bubble? If so, tech valuations could be teetering on the edge. Our own indicators have entered into unprecedented levels of overvaluation. Despite this, the attitude still seems to be: as long as the music keeps playing, keep dancing. www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Trump has asked the US Supreme Court to let him oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
If we had our way, the focus would be on tamping down on forward-looking guidance instead. They're more often wrong than right and make management nervous about missing the mark, leading to questionable short-term decision making. (www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...)
There are pros and cons to this. Perhaps looking to Europe, which eliminated quarterly reporting reqts 10 years ago, sheds the most light. Most companies didn't change anything because investors still demanded increased transparency.
WWJPD? That stands for: What Will Jay Powell Do? As in, that’s what all the Fed-watchers and economists are wondering as unemployment claims climb.
Today on Marketplace.
For more info on how jobs data has been used to predict recessions, and the data we use in our models: www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/sahm-...
As many market indicators point towards a potential catalyzing event toward correction, jobs data will continue to be critical to watch. But if the market decides the govt itself is no longer a trustworthy data source, then we enter more perilous territory. thehill.com/business/545...
More info here, including some different ways to assess the data: www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/margi... (e.g. as a % of total market value, the amount of debt doesn't look too out of the ordinary) (3/3)
When margin debt increases, the overall level of risk in the market increases too. If the stock market tumbles, the value of the collateral falls, and investors need to sell the stocks to pay the loan (a "margin call"). At scale, this theoretically could kick off a pretty wild feedback loop. (2/3)
Let’s do a deeper dive into Margin Debt:
Right now it's at its second-highest point ever. (This is the amount of money borrowed to invest in the market.) With interest rates as high as they are now, this is pretty bullish behavior. (1/3)
Rates holding steady...For how long? More are betting that it'll be a while longer yet. "Interest-rate futures showed traders pared back the probability of a September rate cut to about 40%, from around 60% prior to the decision."
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Just bumping this as a reminder...
It remains a bit of a head-scratcher that the admin continues to jawbone the Fed for cuts while touting the economy’s strength. It’s a mixed message: “Everything’s great! Now hit the panic button.” Certainly an unconventional approach…
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
More than 90% of the economists polled by the Financial Times were either somewhat concerned or very concerned about the safe-haven role of US dollar denominated assets over the next five to 10 years https://on.ft.com/3GesC6U
The US strikes Iran and the Senate is teetering on the edge of voting for a bill that will add trillions to the national debt tally. The market? Hitting new highs.
Our latest data and analysis dropped today: www.currentmarketvaluation.com/members/dash...
“Naming a ‘shadow’ Fed Chair is dollar-negative...conflicting signals between the official Chair and a perceived ‘shadow’ figure will increase market confusion, lead to mixed policy expectations, and erode the Fed’s image as a non-partisan institution.” 👀
Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management: "...the current environment of persistent uncertainty is ripe ground for a policy mis-step. The wisest decision for the Fed is to simply stand still...". And stand still they did. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...