I kinda think this is the case because Iran can define an end to American bombing as a victory, and that's more valuable to them than continuing escalations with their neighbors
maybe Israel would keep the war going, but then Iran would still have the Hormuz option, proven effective
this does not materially change the larger story but to the best of my knowledge, this is not true. (Newcastle has used a plane owned by the same company that supplied the Gulfstream jets that transported Khashoggi's killers but not those planes) sportingintelligence832.substack.com/p/here-we-go...
I would try even more tbh
and that's the best case scenario!
Iran can't really do anything but endure, so I would expect they will claim their endurance is a victory while rebuilding an even more hard-line and oppressive version of the regime
I can't tell if this is a bot or just a deranged person but either way I'm gonna block them and recommend same
right
you can't destroy the capacity of a state / quasi state actor to affect shipping routes off its coast without an enormously costly war
you can prevent the destruction of your capacity to fuck up shipping lanes just by refusing to give up unless someone commits to a drawn out war
betting markets are probably pricing this higher than their models have it because the futures markets involve very long lockups and relatively limited sharp money, but I certainly wouldn't say 20 percent is too high and that's really fucking high
because it's a matter of objectives. the US objective (destroy the Houthis capacity to disrupt shipping) was far more expansive and difficult to achieve then the Houthis objective (not have their capacity destroyed)
nah it's because you can't win using just missiles
As someone who routinely mocks permabullish clickbait oil forecasts, I want to be exceptionally clear:
Crude WILL go to $200/bbl, en route higher, unless traffic through the Strait resumes.
Not clickbait, but rather brutal physics and necessary economic incentives.
it's like these people didn't have group chats smh
I am pretty confident Iran is clearly going to give him nothing, they've made a bet on outlasting the US and Israel and I think they have to see that bet working right now
the best reasonable outcome is that Trump figures out a way to claim victory and end the war despite having achieved nothing at all
it will be fucking stupid, it definitionally has to be fucking stupid, but it's the best reasonable outcome at this point
this website sucks sometimes
this reads like someone trying to build their brand as a left-liberal presidential candidate but with limited understanding of left-lib economic policy discourse
and Van Hollen, a paradigmatic party insider whose foreign policy stances opened up a progressive lane for him, fits that description
WHY DO PERSIAN JEWS LIVE IN LA
WHAT HAPPENED TO IRAN'S JEWS THAT THEYRE SUCH A SMALL PART OF IRAN'S POPULATION
so yes the Van Hollen plan taxes the rich, but it does so to redistribute those gains primarily to people with middle-to-upper incomes, and in the form of tax cuts which weaken the broad base needed for any kind of social democracy
Christ, even Jabba's got abs
there is an aspect within which licensure also is censorship I think?
like there is a massive rulebook set up around "giving legal advice" which restricts speech for people in and adjunct to the legal profession
I think rules of speech are necessarily implicated in certain domains already pre-LLMs
So just to be clear the FA rule is that Emi Martinez is strictly forbidden from promoting betting companies except for every time he puts on an Aston Villa shirt
1.) Unemployment duration right now is *really* high. Near or above *peak* duration in pre-GFC recessions.
2.) We are spending less money than ever helping connect unemployed workers to jobs.
Bad!
www.theargumentmag.com/p/the-tinder...
It was me!
Some times payroll data is bad. It was bad this month.
But the idea that an economy with 4.4% unemployment, 80.7% prime age employment, and 2.4% inflation is "destroyed" is very silly.
no one knows what anyone is doing over there
its kinda funny that, as we are re-running the 80s (iran, dementia president, culture boring, etc), the big technology upending everyone's worldview is......Transformers......
and finally one more subscriber pod on PSG - Chelsea and why we just don't know what to expect from this match: www.patreon.com/posts/chelse...
and Part II for subscribers -- our takes on Barcelona - Newcastle and Man City - Real Madrid, and I finally do get to Staples' new reading of Paul and ancient Jewish restoration theology: www.patreon.com/posts/more-c...
new @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social this week, a two-parter
on the free side, Part I of our Champions League Round of 16 preview and the return of Bible History Corner on @jasonstaples.bsky.social book Paul and the Resurrection of Israel open.spotify.com/episode/0XMt...
"I didn't think the leopards would eat my face" -- nation states which leveraged their power in foreign elections on behalf of the leopards eating people's faces party apnews.com/article/iran...
yes I read theory www.jezebel.com/charlottesvi...
