Personally and in his politics, he’s definitely closer to Paxton. But it’s tricky because some of the people voting for him may be right wingers who’ve already decided they can’t vote for Paxton for moral reasons. So I don’t know how his vote breaks down.
i talked to the folks at nyt opinion about the primary last night and what's next: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/o...
Another shocker: Bo French and his "We Are All Rhodesians Now" Platform gets him a runoff berth with the incumbent. Little polling on this race but it had French way behind
Senate's done. Elsewhere, some really weird stuff. Pretty shocking result in R AG: Roy was talking tough about avoiding a runoff and he's more than 12 points down with Mayes Middleton in a really comfortable position. Did not see this coming at all.
Cancel that: Some Williamson polls open till 10, now, and there's a legal fight about Dallas ballots.
It will, though, give Cornyn better material to make his electability pitch to Texas Rs over the next two months. And he's a little bit closer to 50% than I expected:
Online, this was an extremely petty and mean-spirited campaign. Crockett was goaded into running by Rs, jumped in too late, and ran half a campaign. Among actual Texas voters, I don't think this is likely to leave any lasting scars.
I'm bad at math and can't responsibly call anything. But Talarico's gonna win, and I bet calls start coming soon after Dallas and Williamson end voting (in two minutes)
Talarico is winning several of south Texas counties that have been making Dems scared the last decade by about a 2-to-1 margin, something that Cornyn is likely to point to in his runoff. Up 15 in Bexar so far. Up 7 statewide.
I realized that after 12 years, I don't actually know who or where Ken Paxton's base is. When he did poorly in hometown DFW I was worried my strongest warrior had missed a step. But he's only 2.5 points shy now and I'm less impressed by Big John
Very early in TX-23, but runoff territory for Gonzales, who has been having Problems recently.
Christian Menefee, in Houston, has a chance at avoiding a runoff with Al Green, casualty of redistricting. Another incumbent down, maybe, sort of.
Im learning now that Ronny Jackson, Trump's former doctor, drew a primary challenge from a person named Chasity Wedgeworth. God bless.
Mealer ahead (she got a late trump endorsement) but she's gonna get a runoff with Briscoe Cain. Prove me wrong, Briscoe. nothing would make me prouder
Alright, lets do some downballot. Dan Crenshaw looks a lot like he's going to get turfed out by stalwart state rep. Steve Toth, one of the great That Guys we have on offer. One incumbent down.
Greg Abbott is perfectly safe in his primary, of course. but his handpicked comptroller won't even get a runoff. Dunked in the toilet. Abbott's pick for ag commissioner cleared the bar, though, most likely. RIP Sid Miller :(
Cornyn running a little bit stronger than I would have expected but doesn't seem realistic to hope for 50%. Middleton, though, maybe? Seems like the attacks on chip roy really hit home
(yes its a joke)
Talarico putting up Bashar Assad numbers in central Texas—winning Travis, Hays, Williamson by 50 points. Expect San Antonio to be good for him. Feels like an early-ish call is coming.
That's the worst news Crockett's gotten all night. She probably had to keep his margin under 20% there
Talarico is winning early vote in majority Hispanic counties that contain Laredo and Corpus Christi almost 2 to 1, which if it holds generally across south Texas is a massive boost (Webb here)
Early vote filtering in on TT/NYT counter is disproportionately from DFW area, which seems to be benefiting Crockett and Cornyn/Middleton. gonna be a while before we get better picture from across the state
if we all hit refresh at the same time it could jog them loose
Christopher Hooks @cd_hooks What to look for on election night in the #TXSen Dem primary: 1) Votes. The more each candidate gets, the better. And that's likely to determine the winner of the entire ballgame. 2) The map. Votes from outside Texas aren't likely to count at all-unless they were mailed in. •• • 12:56 PM • Mar 3, 2026 • 189.2K Views 38 * > 326 4.4K 139
Can’t believe you withhold this insight from the folks here
not liveblogging the tx primary tonight but gonna try to post stuff here
“I have instructed a large language model trained on sixty years of the most florid and overwrought Texas political writing (which is to say, my brain) to produce a guide to the man and his times.” This is peak @hooks.bsky.social in the best way possible www.texasmonthly.com/news-politic...
BRISCOE AGONISTES
get an early look at the piece some are calling an early frontrunner for the Pulitzer Prize for Texas political blogging (junior division) www.texasmonthly.com/news-politic...
…is that while X is a septic tank it remains an absolutely essential place to stay up with TX/national conservatives and news events, and I don’t have it in me to be seriously active on two different platforms. Life’s too short!!
I’ve gotten a couple of messages from folks who are asking in a friendly way why I’m still active on Twitter more than I am here. Just for the record, the answer…
