The intense upwelling of the last few weeks has collapsed as trade winds failed again. One possible reason is the Bermuda high is weak and positioned east than is needed to drive the pressure gradient that sets up wind-jet upwelling in the Gulf of Panama, although this idea needs further exploration
Upwelling Update 20th Feb. The thermocline remains close to the surface although wind strength has decreased
Data now in up 5th Feb 2026 and upwelling has returned with a vengeance! The thermocline is now close to the surface and we are hearing reports of surface waters as low as 16 degrees C in some parts of the Gulf.
Is this the strongest upwelling ever recorded? Interesting after last year's failure!
Our latest piece, just out
New data in! Now up to the 20th January. 2026 seems to be following a more normal trajectory than 2025, but it's too early to say for sure
We are closely tracking the 2026 upwelling season in collaboration with STRI's Marine Monitoring Program.
I will present periodic updates on how the thermocline is evolving through the year. So far, too early to say!
More info on data collection and analysis here: odealab.com/upwelling-up...
Our new paper is online! We found that 1) today's shark & ray diversity was already reached ~100Ma; 2) that the K/Pg extinction was not catastrophic; 3) that the max diversity was reached ~50Ma; and 4) that today's diversity is depleted compared to the past.
www.cell.com/current-biol...
New paper out today! "Fossil otolith assemblages reveal millennial-scale changes in reef fish biomass and trophic structure across the Isthmus of Panama"
🔓https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2024.0419
We used fossil fish otoliths to reconstruct community structure and energetics over millennia.
That's the one. Thanks a lot!
In 2025 the normally predictable upwelling in the Gulf of Panama failed to appear - the first time since our records began 40 years ago (www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2512056122I).
We are studying the gulf carefully to see what will happen in 2026. Will it also fail or was 2025 a one-off?
So excited to see this out! Metabarcoding shows fishes shift diets on degraded reefs; growth rates similar, condition diverged → species-specific coping strategies buff.ly/kGkEDpw @mattleray.bsky.social @nancyknowlton.bsky.social @odealab.bsky.social @sbac-manmetuni.bsky.social @stri_panama +others
Interested in Historical Ecology and Conservation Palaeobiology? 🪸🦀
Steve Pates and I are offering a PhD project on Unlocking Palaeo-Historical Biodiversity Data to Inform Ecological Baselines @es-ucl.bsky.social
@uclcber.bsky.social
🗓️ Apply by 19th January 2026
www.findaphd.com/phds/project...
This beautiful artwork made by Yun-Kae Kiang for the study illustrates the abundance of lanternfishes and other pelagic animals recovered at the Piña site. Love the cookie-cutter shark - we find a lot of their teeth at the site
We found that more than 96% of the otoliths recovered from the Piña site belonged to the family Myctophidae - the lanternfishes - demonstrating that the Miocene Caribbean waters were highly productive in contrast to the oligotrophic Caribbean today
Illustration of new species drawn by Natasha Hinojosa
We named 4 new fishspecies: Chiloconger aflorens, Dasyscopelus inopinatus, Malakichthys schwarzhansi, and Hoplostethus boyae. This one after Brigida de Gracia, Ngäbe fossil fish expert who has contributed greatly to understanding Panama's natural history. Her nickname is Boya, hence the species name
The site is remarkable for many reasons, but the density of otoliths in the sediments really stands out. They are so abundant they are clearly visible as you walk over the wave-cut platform...
With otolith master Chien-Hsiang Lin, we studied the remarkable fish fauna of the late Miocene Chagres formation in Caribbean Panama peerj.com/articles/201...
#ICRS is the premier conference for all things coral reef, and a great place to foster thinking and collaboration between ecologists, historical ecologists, and palaeontologists. Consider submitting your abstract to "Reefs through Time", hosted by some top-notch researchers #Coral #Paleobiology
In time for #FossilFriday, a new paper by Jansen Smith and many paleontologists (including me) on what questions the field may focus on in the coming decade
Identifying the Big Questions in paleontology: a community-driven project | Paleobiology | Cambridge Core - www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Wind-jet upwelling in the GOP. (A) Typical wind vectors and SST through the topographic low in the Isthmus of Panama showing reduced sea surface temperatures in the Gulf (Feb 4, 2019). (B) Daily satellite-derived SST 1985–2025. Dashed line shows the lowest 2025 SST (27.5 °C); gray arrow indicates anomalous 2025.
One of the most-viewed PNAS articles in the last week is “Unprecedented suppression of Panama’s Pacific upwelling in 2025.” Explore the article here: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
For more trending articles, visit ow.ly/Me2U50SkLRZ.
New paper! led by Chris Perry: Most W. Atlantic reefs in current state can't keep up with sealevel rise at 2°C+. If reefs could accrete at Holocene rates (like these in Enriquillo basin) they'd manage fine. Restoration pockets offer some local hope, but overall sobering news doi.org/10.1038/s415...
Here in the tropics, climate "disruption" can upend predictable processes that coastal communities rely on. There are many regionally-important upwelling zones across the tropics. All need better monitoring and climate predictions. Great collaboration with @mpic.de. OA! www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
More than 95% biomass of Panama's fisheries comes from the Pacific coast and the #1 largest export of Panama is sea food. Upwelling is economically critical for Panama and its people. Is this a one-off or a vision of the future? Photo: Steve Paton/STRI
It appears the culprit was dramatically reduced wind patterns—74% fewer northerly winds with much shorter duration when they did occur. Just not enough to kick-start the upwelling...
We analysed long term records of temperature and wind in collaboration with the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry using the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute's long term monitoring program data. Here's to institutional monitoring!
This seasonal upwelling is driven by the trade winds, and it brings cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface. Year on, year out it has predictably supported ocean life and fisheries for millennia. The cooling waters also protect coral reefs from heat stress. Photos: Natasha Hinojosa and Steve Paton
📊 new paper! The natural phenomenon of upwelling, which normally occurs every year in the Gulf of Panama, failed for the first time on record in 2025...
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
[most co-authors not on bluesky except @javsdiaz.bsky.social @jonscibulski.bsky.social]...
Just one more week (till 5 Sept) to apply for the postdoc position with me at UA Museums' Department of Museum Research and Collections. NSF-project together with Jill Leonard-Pingel, @odealab.bsky.social, and @sethf.bsky.social focused on marine ecosystems in Panama.
bsky.app/profile/pale...
Calling all Palaeontology PhD candidates and post-docs everywhere! No matter what your particular field of research or country of institution, please follow forms.gle/cLLkEjdLjPrT... and fill in my ANONYMOUS RESEARCH SURVEY – #Yourpalaeolife : investigating fieldwork by early career palaeontologists
