So the wait is over & the market "happy" (or no too unhappy) abt the Swiss proposal for UBS:
- full deduction of subs
- DTA/goodwill deduction
Will cost approx 25bn$ of addt'l capital requirement
BUT
Long time frame leaving time for optimization of capital within the group

$ litigation expenses

You've been eagerly waiting for it, holding your breath.... here it, the annual ShitBanksDoIndex

Positive trend resuming after the small spike in 2022 (which came from the US)

Nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki has won Poland’s presidential election, according to the country’s electoral commission, after a tight run-off vote against pro-EU rival and Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski.

(FT)

a bald man is sitting at a desk and giving a peace sign . ALT: a bald man is sitting at a desk and giving a peace sign .

"UAE-Based Suitors May Bid for UniCredit Russia" (Messagero)

"UAE-based"

Caltagirone will soon become the first human to be regulated under the Financial Conglomerate Directive (2002/87/EC)

Slightly weird statement from Intesa CEO

*INTESA CEO: IF UNICREDIT BIDS FOR GENERALI I'D TELL ORCEL STOP

I wonder how much the UBS franchise is worth to Netflix?

"A UBS Group AG client, who alleges his wealth adviser had an affair with his wife and tried to help her take control of family funds, can sue the broker but not the Swiss firm, a New York judge ruled." (for 10m$)

classic wirecard modus operandi

ahahaha

You can't make this up

*Executive at Collapsed Irish Nationwide Gets Four-Year Ban (BN)

So far, nothing special

But this is for what he did 20 YEARS AGO (2004-2008).

He gets a 4-year ban from the financial industry for making a bank bust in 2010

CBI investigated 15 years !

Insideparadeplatz isn't always correct - so careful - but they just make 2 big claims which directly contradict Julius Baer mgt:
- it was a whisteblower who told Finma about the pbms in risk controls
- the 130m loss is on just ONE client (management said the opposite on IR call)

A nice read to start your day: Bloomberg's "The Trump Family’s Money-Making Machine" detailing every single deal the Trump family has landed since starting the 2024 Presidential campaign.

Which one is your favourite?

I have a sweet spot for the Trump Digital Trading Cards

I'm reading the words "debt sustainability" in sell side resarch way too often these days - & no it's not only about the US.

Exports to US broken down by "executive orders buckets"

European bank M&A isn't exactly slowing down

KBC GROEP TO BUY 365.bank FOR EUR761M IN CASH

File under the "who would have guessed" folder

"Europe on Alert for Cheap Chinese Imports as Trump Tariffs Bite"

secure.ubs.com/minisites/gr...

Vulcan Salute Spock GIF ALT: Vulcan Salute Spock GIF

Quite the headline we've got here

"Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, will not hire more humans for now"

Afaik UBS is the 1st to publish this new template showing benefits of banks internal models & how much the new Basel 4 floor is going to bite.

What's fascinating imo is the counterparty credit risk: models are so aggressive that they reduce "risk" by 78%!

Archegos anyone?

The loss is part of the cost because it's paid by someone

yep

Summary of the German coalition's economic measures & potential GDP impact, by DB

However, the same legal questions (even worse probably) can be raised if the funds are used for SME funding, so let's see if DB & UCG do actually drop their lawsuits

Germany’s New Government to Use Legacy Bank Levy Funds for SMEs (€2bn) (BN)

The key is that the german banking association said it was "appropriate" bc there are lawsuits (including from DB & Unicredit) on the use of those funds after the gvt tried to transfer to Soffin in 2024

China PBOC Asks State Lenders to Cut Dollar Purchases: Reuters
(Bloomberg) -- China’s central bank has asked major state-owned banks to reduce US dollar purchases, Reuters reports

a man looking out a window with the words do you smell that on the bottom ALT: a man looking out a window with the words do you smell that on the bottom

One headline for the lovers of doom porn

JAAA ETF Daily Outflows $585.2 Million, Most since inception

That's the AAA CLO ETF

lots of people are saying this is >0 for Mexico ; more offshoring from US & others to Mexico could be a side effect of all this

And a last one for the MAGA crowd: Nike suppliers is >1 million people in Asia vs. 4k making goods in US !

Some details on who’s going to stop which exports – very interesting split (especially if you try to model loan losses 😊). Overall 30% drop in US imports of goods (with retaliation modelled as 50% of US). China is -85%, Vietnam -75%, Taiwan, Japan, Korea Thailand -50%, EU -40%.