Miguel Chanco

25% tourism decline ‘worst-case scenario’ War in the Middle East could seriously affect Thai tourism this year, with a 25% decline from the 2026 target being the worst-case scenario if the fighting extends beyond three months, prompting offic...

#Thailand's tourism industry can't catch a break huh? (www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...)

Millions of barrels of Russian oil are already close to India India is set to receive millions of barrels of Russian oil. A US waiver allows these purchases amid Middle East supply shortages. Tankers carrying Russian crude are heading towards Indian ports. This ...

Backstop: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy....

#India

My colleague, Meekita's, latest for #PantheonMacro - "#BNM maintains rates but is holding its breath on the Middle East" buff.ly/TKyBwxE

Thai inflation negative for 11th straight month Thailand’s nearly year-long stretch of falling consumer prices may now provide a buffer against potential energy-driven inflation spike, analysts say.

"If global oil prices remain in the range of $80 to $120 per barrel, he said, inflation this year could quicken to between 1% and 3%, he said." (www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...)

Lol. That is a huge range. Things will look very diff at 80 vs 90, vs 100, vs 110, vs 120... #Thailand

My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#India--for now--can afford to shrug off the global oil-price surge to date" buff.ly/tmEaJMY

India’s growth is structural, not cyclical India's economy is growing through investment and reforms, not just stimulus. Public spending on infrastructure is rising, boosting competitiveness. Tax stability and fewer regulations encourage inves...

Here's the "yes, but" to this: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... It really looks like from the data that government capex as a percentage of total government spending has hit a natural ceiling.

#India

My latest for #PantheonMacro - "Boost to Indonesian exports from oil spike still small compared to 2022" www.pantheonmacro.com/documents/em...

Most senators back Marcos’ fuel tax cut push amid tension in Middle East Sens. Erwin Tulfo and Juan Miguel Zubiri PRIB file photos MANILA, Philippines — Several senators have now signified their intent to give way to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s appeal for

This'll be the playbook for a lot of countries in #Asia, if things get much worse for an extended period of time: newsinfo.inquirer.net/2189841/2-se...

Indeed. That's why I'm not panicking.

India, Canada relaunch free trade talks after 2023 diplomatic chill India and Canada have officially begun talks for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. This marks a new chapter in their trade relations. Both nations aim to finalize the pact by the end of ...

Some good news from yesterday, yes there was some: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy....

#India

Large private banks aim to maintain high credit growth in 2026 VCBS believes that dynamic private banks are expected to continue leading credit growth with a projected loan portfolio expansion exceeding 20 per cent.

Sounds to me like a recipe for #SBV rate hikes: vietnamnews.vn/economy/1766.... Our core view is a 25bp increase in H2.

Poll: February inflation may have hit 13-mo high INQUIRER.net FILE PHOTO / Jerome Cristobal Consumer prices may have picked up at a faster clip in February, fueled by a quicker rise in the cost of key items such as food and oil, with the gains

FWIW, we're at 2.8%: business.inquirer.net/576860/poll-....

#Philippines

All Indonesian Major Fuel Retailers Increase Pump Prices All major fuel retailers raise gasoline and diesel prices from March 1; subsidized fuels unchanged.

Key line - "Subsidized fuels managed by Pertamina remain unchanged at Rp 10,000 per liter for Pertalite gasoline and Rp 6,800 per liter for Biosolar diesel." (jakartaglobe.id/business/all...)

#Indonesia

Israel-Iran war's 'Strait' fight can damage one of India's well-built firewalls Israel-Iran conflict India impact: India confronts fresh economic risks as conflict in West Asia intensifies. The killing of Iran's Supreme Leader and subsequent retaliation have heightened fears of ...

Too early to say that the mess in the Middle East will be a big inflation problem for #India: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... Worth remembering that pump prices have been effectively frozen since mid-2022, when global oil prices were much, much higher.

My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#India's new GDP more stable and carries greater credibility" buff.ly/vU6Zjxs

My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#BoT surprises with a cut, while also throwing its hands up in the air" buff.ly/OHTAipS

National conference convened to implement key Politburo resolutions Party General Secretary Tô Lâm attended and delivered a keynote address. Also present were State President Lương Cường, Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính, National Assembly Chairman Trần Thanh Mẫn, Perma...

We've been saying for some time this - fiscal policy - is probably where the push will come from if #Vietnam wants to force the 10% GDP growth target: vietnamnews.vn/politics-law...

WTO establishes panel on India-China dispute on PLI The World Trade Organisation has agreed to form a dispute panel. China filed a case against India concerning its automotive and renewable energy policies. Beijing claims India's incentive schemes disc...

Very rich, this, coming from #China: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... But, at the same time, kinda nice to see it going through the @wto for its dispute vs. #India.

My colleague, Meekita's, latest for #PantheonMacro - "Malaysian electronics exports still booming, thanks to AI demand" buff.ly/guYn0Br

My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#Thailand's scorching exports in January look like a one-off, for now" lnkd.in/eTmmn43t

Thai growth upgraded after strong Q4 Three bank-affiliated research centres have upgraded their forecasts for Thailand's economic growth this year to around 2%, supported by a stronger-than-expected performance in the final quarter of 20...

Still all - rightly - expecting a further slowdown this year versus last, though: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen.... FWIW, we're at 2.2%.

#Thailand

Rebased GDP series sharpens view of India’s economy - The Economic Times India’s new GDP base revision sharpens economic measurement by using updated data sources like MGT-7 filings, GST data, ASUSE and PLFS. It improves sectoral and regional allocation, expands double def...

Well, let's hope so: economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/et-c....

#India

Why nothing seems to change: A quiet diagnosis of the Philippine condition Many Filipinos today share an uneasy feeling: The world has changed, yet the Philippines appears to move in circles. While Singapore disciplined itself into efficiency, Taiwan transformed under

What a line - "The result is a paradox: The #Philippines became too resilient to be forced to reform, yet too compromised to progress decisively." (business.inquirer.net/575449/why-n...)

Anutin denies 300-seat coalition deal is finalised Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT), has dismissed reports that a 300-seat coalition in the House of Representatives has already been secured, insisting no formal...

The longer this apparent dithering goes on, the less economically constructive the BJT's 'landslide' win earlier this month will look: www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/pol...

#Thailand

Thailand is losing ground to Vietnam Vietnam's GDP is likely to catch up with Thailand's within two years unless the latter undertakes meaningful economic reforms, warn two academics.

Yup: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...

#Thailand

Indonesia Swallows US Poison Pill in New Trade Deal as Trump Isolates China The US has threatened to terminate the tariff deal if Indonesia makes a deal with a country that "jeopardizes" Washington

Old news, now, this: jakartaglobe.id/business/ind.... So, nothing to see here.

#Indonesia

Canada could sign trade deal with India 'within a year': Indian Envoy ahead of PM Mark Carney's visit India's High Commissioner to Canada, Dinesh Patnaik, has expressed optimism that India and Canada could conclude a comprehensive trade agreement within a year, despite past delays in negotiations, The...

Really all thanks to DJT, this: economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy.... How quickly have #India-#Canada ties been repaired over the last 12 months or so, huh, from a very low point when the latter was under Trudeau.

Meekita's latest on #Taiwan for #PantheonMacro. Long story short; non-electronic exports, while they showed some 'life' in January, probably won't be enough to cushion a big growth slowdown this year. buff.ly/uLXDN8j

Economy has 'left ICU', says finance chief Thailand's economy has now "left the intensive care unit [ICU]", reflected in fourth-quarter growth of 2.5%, which surpassed the earlier projection of 1.8% and lifted full-year 2025 growth to 2.4%, ab...

...still in a coma, though: www.bangkokpost.com/business/gen...

#Thailand

My latest for #PantheonMacro - "#Thailand's hot Q4 GDP thanks in large part to the interim government" buff.ly/auj1S7a