Irina Melnikova

Narrowed uncertainty in future global temperature and remaining carbon budget Global temperature projections and remaining carbon budget estimates for critical warming thresholds remain highly uncertain. Accounting for land-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks under high-emission scenarios, we refine these estimates to provide clearer guidance for limiting warming below 2°C and 3°C. These results support more effective mitigation planning and climate policy.

Online now: Narrowed uncertainty in future global temperature and remaining carbon budget

A new paper in #OneEarth on reducing future TCRE and remaining carbon budget uncertainty, accounting for both climate and carbon cycle feedbacks!
t.co/eG7HsbZNG2

Honored to serve as an #IPCC AR7 LA, and even more delighted to welcome our daughter just before #LAM1. Thanks to #WG1 TSU and the Ch. 9 team, I could join online. Looking ahead to exciting (and sleepless😅) days as a first-time mom and LA, and hoping to contribute in a small way to a better future ☺️

The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 is out!

Read it here: https://loom.ly/K4SAqQM

#ClimateAction #GlobalTippingPoints #ClimateScience #Sustainability #WCRP

Overshoot: Exploring the implications of meeting 1.5C climate goal ‘from above’ - Carbon Brief The first-ever international conference on the contentious topic of “overshoot” was held last week in...

NEW – Overshoot: Exploring the implications of meeting 1.5C climate goal ‘from above’ | @ceciliakeating.carbonbrief.org and @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org

Read here: buff.ly/HWteg9K

The Amazon is nearing a potential tipping point, driven by deforestation & climate change.

Join us for a webinar exploring the latest science on Amazon resilience & tipping metrics.

15 Oct 15:30-17:00 CEST
Register: https://loom.ly/MlgqNu4

🌍 The first international #OvershootConference kicked off at IIASA today with an inspiring plenary session that set the tone for an important week of dialogue on pathways beyond overshoot.

New starter pack with @ipcc.bsky.social #AR7 scientists (bureau, authors, REs)! Full list: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...
For SR cities scientists see separate starter pack!
@dianaurge.bsky.social @sherilee.bsky.social @siir-kilkis.bsky.social @janfuglestvedt.bsky.social
go.bsky.app/2FuXb3Y

We also confirm mechanisms of the Amazon dieback in terms of climate drivers, ecological processes and land-use change effects

We look at CMIP5 and CMIP6 Earth System models under high-emission scenarios that have extensions up to 23rd century - 9 out of 12 models project localized to large-scale rainforest dieback that starts already within the 21st century

Our new study in @commsearth.nature.com shows that Amazon dieback could begin within the 21st century in the absence of climate change mitigation

www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Happy to announce that I will be serving as a lead author for WG1 Chapter 9 "Earth system responses under pathways towards temperature stabilization, including overshoot pathways" of the upcoming IPCC 7th Assessment Report. Really hope I can do the work well!

Auditors can’t save carbon offsets The theory behind carbon offset projects is appealing: Instead of an organization cutting its own emissions, it can fund lower-cost carbon-reducing projects elsewhere to “offset” its emissions. The re...

A great editorial piece about the issues with carbon offsets:
Auditors can’t save carbon offsets | Science www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

The latter combined effect (cross-term) has the most complex representation, where changes in CO2 concentrations and temperatures interact to influence carbon sinks. See the comparison of gamma+cross term effects on land & ocean

This is because of existence of 3 feedback mechanisms: (1) the effect of changes in CO2 concentration on carbon sinks through CO2 fertilisation effects and the solubility pump (beta), (2) the effect of temperature changes on carbon sinks (gamma), and (3) a “combined effect”

We show that combined mitigation that addresses both types of gases can deliver faster and greater cooling than tackling CO2 alone

Our new study in #ESD explores impacts of CO2 and non-CO2 GHG concentration decrease on the climate and carbon cycle
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

Two future possibilities of the future warming stripes - rapid action or delayed action.

What will the future of the warming stripes be?

2024 could be the start of a stabilisation of global temperatures, or it might appear to be a cool year.

Which one of these stories becomes reality depends on our choices today, and every day until then.

We are likely to regret not acting sooner.