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Thomas Scherer

@tlscherer

Geopolitical risk at Bloomberg Economics. fp21.org acolyte for evidence and integrity in foreign policy. Loves (hates) conflict data. Also gaming, USWNT soccer, tubas, firetrucks. he/him

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Latest posts by Thomas Scherer @tlscherer

I wonder, with the benefits of hindsight, if anyone has any regrets about this?

10.03.2026 16:20 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

With the war justifications flying around, I often think about the 2010 Time Magazine cover with the article title "What Happens If We Leave Afghanistan" and the image of an Afghan woman whose nose had been cut off by the Taliban.

10.03.2026 16:17 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Billionaires Are Swaying Elections in All Corners of America

β€œFor every dollar donated by billionaires and their immediate families to a candidate or committee associated with Democrats, five dollars went to Republicans.” Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/u...

09.03.2026 16:39 πŸ‘ 23 πŸ” 17 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 3
Preview
Billionaires Are Swaying Elections in All Corners of America

β€œThe Times analysis found 300 billionaires and their families donated more than $3 billionβ€”19% of all contributionsβ€”in federal elections in 2024. The billionaire families gave an average total of $10 million each in 2024, roughly equal to what 100,000 typical political donors gave, combined.β€œ Gift:

09.03.2026 16:22 πŸ‘ 342 πŸ” 222 πŸ’¬ 14 πŸ“Œ 39

The killing of Iranian children during an illegal war is an impeachable offense (not to mention a grave crime) and Congress should really act like it.

15 Republicans in the Senate could end this nightmare before it somehow gets even worse.

07.03.2026 02:13 πŸ‘ 13013 πŸ” 3632 πŸ’¬ 474 πŸ“Œ 171

During the Syria crisis, CIA Director Petraeus brought President Obama a plan to arm Syrian rebels, supported by SecDef Panetta and SecState Clinton.

Obama asked whether such plans had worked before. The CIA conducted a review and found that they failed with one exception, the mujahedeen.

04.03.2026 13:13 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

C.I.A. Study of Covert Aid Fueled Skepticism About Helping Syrian Rebels www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/u...

04.03.2026 13:03 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

so the goal is regime chiang?

04.03.2026 02:46 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Great use of alt text here

27.02.2026 16:42 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

that's a dinosaur! it scares me!

@posters-madness.bsky.social

27.02.2026 14:41 πŸ‘ 112 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 0
A screenshot from Paul F. Tompkins' bluesky post, which has a video of a bird that looks like a wide-beaked pelican-duck on flamingo legs. Mr. Tompkins suggests the bird is unintelligent and asks whether such a bird is even necessary.

A screenshot from Paul F. Tompkins' bluesky post, which has a video of a bird that looks like a wide-beaked pelican-duck on flamingo legs. Mr. Tompkins suggests the bird is unintelligent and asks whether such a bird is even necessary.

Classify this bird? @audrelawdamercy.blacksky.app

27.02.2026 14:12 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

Has a poli sci journal ever taken such a stance? Is it even possible?
#polisci #IRsky πŸ—Ί

27.02.2026 14:01 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Cover of The Lancet:

@thelancet.com
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

27.02.2026 11:15 πŸ‘ 8158 πŸ” 3442 πŸ’¬ 158 πŸ“Œ 220

🧡 of 🧡s. My views on this are clear, longstanding, & tiresome to many I'm sure. But I'll never stop being deeply angry that Larry Summers dominated the entire National Conversationℒ️ on the economy during Joe Biden's presidency & was lauded for being so epically wrong & repeatedly ignoring the data.

25.02.2026 17:07 πŸ‘ 183 πŸ” 55 πŸ’¬ 13 πŸ“Œ 2
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I Caught POLITICO and the New York Times Laundering Pink Slime "News" How the sexist backlash to AOC and Gretchen Whitmer at the Munich Security Conference led me to a scammy "local news" outlet pushing a coordinated right-wing narrative

Interesting post about the coordinated anti-AOC smear campaign. It's 2016 again! Fake local news outlets on Facebook getting picked up until eventually it winds up in the Washington Post.

23.02.2026 21:38 πŸ‘ 6569 πŸ” 1978 πŸ’¬ 131 πŸ“Œ 116

"We know that this can be done, because it has been done. In his famous Madison Garden speech..FDR declared war on 'Government by organized money,' and he won that war...To say that a comparable project is impossible today is to say that democracy can’t be saved. And I’m not willing to accept that."

18.02.2026 21:03 πŸ‘ 48 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

If you are not interested enough to have found the arguably #1 liberal news podcast, I am skeptical that you are interested enough to attend a political conference.

18.02.2026 15:11 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Who is the 'opposition' in that sentence?

18.02.2026 15:05 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I don’t really know what I expect in posting this, but maybe some people see it and can learn from it.

I’ll call it β€œlessons from an unwilling immigration attorney.”

1/

11.02.2026 21:56 πŸ‘ 5250 πŸ” 2657 πŸ’¬ 85 πŸ“Œ 907

Every department needs an enforcer to protect their endowed chairs

12.02.2026 23:48 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Technology for civilian self-protection The capacity of citizens to self-protect against armed conflict has been transformed by the development of information and communications technologies. Cas

My article is currently open-access... Click away...

We map out the creative ways people nonviolently use phones to protect themselves in war zones...

Americans have now adopted some of these approaches too
academic.oup.com/ia/article/101/3/1043/8106131

10.02.2026 05:54 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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happening this morning in Minneapolis -- ICE agents drawing guns on observers. I reiterate again that it is only a matter of time before DHS kills more innocent people in Minnesota. Congress needs to shut this shit down right now.

03.02.2026 16:19 πŸ‘ 43242 πŸ” 19352 πŸ’¬ 2398 πŸ“Œ 1614
Preview
Marimar Martinez, shot by Border Patrol in Chicago, speaks out after Good, Pretti deaths: 'I am their voice' In a wide-ranging interview with the Chicago Sun-Times and WBEZ, Martinez discusses her shooting, the federal government’s failed attempt to prosecute her and the role she now sees for herself in a fi...

Marimar Martinez, shot 5 times by Border Patrol in Chicago, speaks out after Renee Good, Alex Pretti deaths

'I am their voice'

NEW w/ @adrianacardmag.bsky.social: chicago.suntimes.com/immigration/...

03.02.2026 13:22 πŸ‘ 8957 πŸ” 3055 πŸ’¬ 79 πŸ“Œ 128
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Trump’s fundraisers are now using the threat of dispatching ICE against citizens as an email engagement tactic.

28.01.2026 12:45 πŸ‘ 5703 πŸ” 2253 πŸ’¬ 269 πŸ“Œ 410

Kash Patel going to a big meeting of the intelligence chiefs in England and asking if they can go jet skiing instead of having a normal meeting is really doing a number on my ability to focus

22.01.2026 21:06 πŸ‘ 3151 πŸ” 510 πŸ’¬ 74 πŸ“Œ 73
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Terribly uncanny how relevant this is to today.

16.01.2026 17:35 πŸ‘ 11624 πŸ” 5280 πŸ’¬ 521 πŸ“Œ 371

I'm gonna say this with all the kindness in my heart: you aren't going to survive if you don't let your life have room for other things.

This is not a short term fight where we can just go 24/7 and then it will be over. We've got YEARS ahead of us. Take a break. Hydrate. Go bake something. Breathe.

14.01.2026 17:46 πŸ‘ 1512 πŸ” 390 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 56

Filled out their online contact form. Not great when the drop-down menu for the current health plan includes options for your 2023 or 2024 plan.

They then sent an email saying my "ID Card is on the way. Now let's get started." Step one, activate online account...which requires the ID card...

14.01.2026 20:43 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Switched to Dean Health Plan during open enrollment after the 2025 plan was discontinued. I paid Jan premium in Nov. Today is Jan 14. I still cannot seek medical care because I cannot create an online account because they have not sent me my insurance card.

14.01.2026 20:36 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Private health insurance continues to radicalize me.

14.01.2026 20:31 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0