@teraqerat
Research on Protests & Authoritarianism in Asia | Center for Conflict Studies Marburg | Coordinator BMBF project @postcolh.bsky.social | Principal Investigator DFG project @afpro.bsky.social More: tasyd.com teraqerat.substack.com
Politico reporting that the U.S. is preparing for possibly 100 days of war, or even until September. Most worrying quote:
“It seems like they woke up on Saturday morning and decided that they were going to start a war.”
www.politico.com/news/2026/03...
In meinem neuen Buch, das JETZT im Buchhandel ist, erzähle ich unter anderem, wie die Idee in die Welt kam, nur ein Krieg gegen den Iran werde den endgültigen Frieden im Nahen Osten bringen.
Schon Ende 2004 wurde das bei einer Tagung propagiert, an der ich teilnahm. Ehrengast: John Bolton.
If anyone from the state Department sees this, I, too, could be paid tens of thousands of dollars for insights such as "killing the leaders causes problems"
APNewsAlert: KARACHI, Pakistan (AP) — Police say at least 6 killed in clashes as people stormed US Consulate in Pakistan after #Iran's supreme leader killed.
FYI, we know alot about what the IRI wanted to do in case of a succession. Every autocratic succession is somewhat unpredictable though; even more so amid a war that seemingly has only begun.
Alot can happen still, and there is alot of uncertainty in the air.
Once again, the intelligence and ballistic capacity is impressive - being able to locate and kill Khamenei on the first day. But the strategic thinking on what to do next? If this is all there is to it, it does not bode well for the future.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
Lol this deep thinking has been the basis of all political science research since the Renaissance, but it applies to peaceful situations more than moments of crisis where elites coalesce more quickly due to external threats
About what will happen now in Iran (assuming they do not get killed next):
www.theguardian.com/us-news/live...
Sidenote: I am discussing the effectiveness of this attack, not the legality. There are different arguments and opinions on what this could achieve.
If you truly believe in the legality, then I would rather sell you some top quality snake oil than try to convince you otherwise.
Ich bin weder Aktivist noch Regierung und plädiere hier ja für Realitätsprüfung.
Das ist aber nicht was die Leute gesagt haben um die es hier geht.
And dont fall for moving goal posts like "if only ground troops" etc. The case against military Intervention was always based in the assumption that no one is willing to lead a sustained ground invasion. The case for invasion was made as "kill the top and people will rise up".
Its pretty clear: a) They were right (and sceptics like me were wrong) --> we should see regime change soon. b) they were wrong, and the regime survives.
But either way, it won't be speculation anymore; the discussion on military intervention is experiencing a real life test
Some in the Iranian opposition, most prominently proponents of Pahlavi, have argued that military intervention is all that is left for Iranians to rise up and topple the regime.
Now, with what looks like the most extensive strikes against Iran ever, would be time for them to prove their assertions.
Argument still holds up
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Here we go again
www.bbc.com/news/live/cn...
Similarities to Trump/U.S. rhetoric are striking. Air strikes to force negotiations.
www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblo...
www.npr.org/2026/02/26/g...
NEW PUBLICATION
“How the Media Cordon Sanitaire Crumbles: Lessons from Germany” now out in @prxjournal.bsky.social
🔓 doi.org/10.1080/2474736X.2026.2621808
I’m very happy that this paper is out – this project is particularly important to me.
a report on the pros and cons of the #Taliban ban of drugs from #Pakistan that shakes up #Afghanistan 's medicine market
f24.my/Bk89.BS
The policy workshop examines how different forms of resistance can counter processes of autocratisation. It focuses on artistic, journalistic, academic, and legal perspectives on practices of resistance under conditions of shrinking civic space.
NEUER TERMIN! INTERACTconversation "Iran in Bewegung"
19. Feb, 18:00 Uhr
@freieuniversitaet.bsky.social, Otto-von-Simson-Str. 26, L113
Mit: N.Foroutan @dezim-institut.de, @teraqerat.bsky.social, A.Zamirirad @swp-mea.bsky.social @swp-berlin.org
Details: www.interact.fu-berlin.de/News/convers...
Habe mal einige Gedanken aufgeschrieben zur politischen Lage im Iran. Spoiler: Gewinner gibt es kaum.
Meine Kollegin Raha aus dem Amnesty Iran Team hat ein Interview über unsere aktuellen Iran-Untersuchungen gegeben. Auch wenn es unrealistisch ist: Eine Überweisung an den Internationalen Strafgerichtshof im Wege des UN-Sicherheitsrats wäre möglich.
www.csmonitor.com/World/2026/0...
20 years of #protest #survey #data now available @gesis.org! 📝 The ipb has systematically processed and harmonized a collection of 31 protest surveys collected over 20 years at various #demonstrations in 🇩🇪 and 🇵🇱, on #peace, #climate, #trade, #migration, & more. For more information:
How the Shooting of Alex Pretti Unfolded www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
This in no Minnesota slander, it has always been super political, and BLM obv started there, too. But Trump escalating violence in a swing state in a midterm year rather than focus on NY / California?
Be honest: Who had "the revolution will begin in Minnesota" on their bingo card?
