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Frans Osinga

@osinga

Prof war studies Leiden Uni

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Latest posts by Frans Osinga @osinga

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πŸ”΄ Russian forces conducted a massive attack against Ukraine tonight, targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

07.03.2026 05:54 πŸ‘ 62 πŸ” 33 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2
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Iran’s regime maintains its grip, despite devastating losses Top officials have been heavily targeted, but experts and officials say the ruling structure in Tehran has remained surprisingly resilient.

β€œThere’s not a single sign of anything in the system breaking or defecting. Nothing. Zero,” said a senior European official. β€œThe control is complete.” www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

06.03.2026 12:20 πŸ‘ 65 πŸ” 28 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 2
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β—οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Zelensky: "We would like to "quietly" receive PAC-3 missiles from the countries and transfer drones to them for interception."

He noted that the Middle Eastern countries launched 800 PAC-3 missiles in three days, and Ukraine has never had so many in the entire war.

05.03.2026 14:03 πŸ‘ 330 πŸ” 91 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 8

Operation Epic Walkback.

06.03.2026 18:46 πŸ‘ 110 πŸ” 24 πŸ’¬ 18 πŸ“Œ 1
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Opinion | Trump’s Fantasy Is Crashing Down

Trump’s Fantasy Is Crashing Down www.nytimes.com/2026/03/06/o...

06.03.2026 15:57 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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β€œUnconditional surrender” was the Allies’ demand in WWII. They backed it up by occupying Germany, Italy and Japan.

Is Trump prepared to send hundreds of thousands of troops to occupy Iran, a nation of 93 million people, and to risk the resulting casualties? If not, this is simply bluster.

06.03.2026 15:13 πŸ‘ 453 πŸ” 122 πŸ’¬ 59 πŸ“Œ 10
Screen shot of CNBC story headlined, β€œTrump says no deal with Iran to end war without β€˜unconditional surrender'” published 6 March 2026 by Dan Mangan.

Screen shot of CNBC story headlined, β€œTrump says no deal with Iran to end war without β€˜unconditional surrender'” published 6 March 2026 by Dan Mangan.

In my research on Admiral King and his influence on JCS decision making in WWII, one thing that leapt out was his regret of a public announcement of unconditional surrender because of how it constrained the Allied approach to war termination.

One can only wonder that he would think of this.

06.03.2026 14:46 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

At a minimum, this should open up the spigots of US support to Ukraine so Russia loses the war it caused.

06.03.2026 15:25 πŸ‘ 142 πŸ” 46 πŸ’¬ 11 πŸ“Œ 2

🧡

06.03.2026 12:50 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Orwellian

06.03.2026 13:27 πŸ‘ 57 πŸ” 19 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 3
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Probably first major US loss of the conflict when it comes to ballistic missile defense. One of TPY-2 radars belonging to the THAAD battery deployed to Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan seems to have been struck. The full radar set goes over $200M.

06.03.2026 01:38 πŸ‘ 619 πŸ” 178 πŸ’¬ 16 πŸ“Œ 37

Without the radar that battery is temporarily out of the fight and that means the Patriot batteries deployed to the base will have higher burden placed on them. THAAD and PATRIOT are meant to work together, with THAAD acting as upper layer and PATRIOT as lower layer.

06.03.2026 01:38 πŸ‘ 128 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡°πŸ‡· The US and South Korea are discussing the possible deployment of Patriot missile defense systems to the Middle East amid the conflict in Iran, - Reuters.

Heavy transport aircraft have already arrived at Osan Air Base to transport Patriot systems to the Middle East.

06.03.2026 13:39 πŸ‘ 79 πŸ” 23 πŸ’¬ 11 πŸ“Œ 5

The US and South Korean militaries are discussing the possible relocation of some Patriot missile defense systems based in South Korea for use in the ongoing conflict with Iran.

06.03.2026 13:39 πŸ‘ 44 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

So far, I wd say Putin is winning the Gulf War. Oil prices are up, & the US has relaxed pressure on India to stop buying fm RU, so budget revenues will increase, making the war easier to fund. And UA will now be an even lower priority for US air defence munitions, so an easier target for RU strikes.

06.03.2026 11:41 πŸ‘ 88 πŸ” 38 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2

Yep

06.03.2026 11:41 πŸ‘ 44 πŸ” 19 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0
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Kubilius: EU must urgently boost missile production as demand soars Some 800 US-made missiles have been used in three days across the Middle East, more than Ukraine has made use of over the four winter months.

Some 800 US-made missiles have been used in three days across the Middle East, more than Ukraine has made use of over the four winter months. #EuropeNews

06.03.2026 11:31 πŸ‘ 32 πŸ” 20 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2
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Russia is providing Iran intelligence to target U.S. forces, officials say The targeting information has included the locations of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East, the officials said.

Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East, the first indication that another major U.S. adversary is participating in the war if if indirectly.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

06.03.2026 11:30 πŸ‘ 265 πŸ” 89 πŸ’¬ 18 πŸ“Œ 12

Former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO.

06.03.2026 09:39 πŸ‘ 63 πŸ” 42 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 3
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NEW: The US & Israeli combined force has advanced to the next phase of their campaign, which will focus on targeting Iranian defense industrial assets, especially missile production facilities. The IDF has continued strikes targeting Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure. isw.pub/IranUpdate03...

06.03.2026 06:07 πŸ‘ 135 πŸ” 35 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 3
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2/ The combined force continues to conduct airstrikes targeting key internal security sites in and around Tehran City as well as Kurdish-populated areas of northwestern Iran. These targets range from regional Law Enforcement Command (LEC) and IRGC headquarters to local police stations.

06.03.2026 06:07 πŸ‘ 70 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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3/ The combined forces have continued to strike the IRGC Ground Forces’ special forces and rapid response units in southwestern Iran. The combined force has not yet struck other IRGC or Artesh special forces bases or infrastructure at scale across the country. isw.pub/IranUpdate03...

06.03.2026 06:07 πŸ‘ 73 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Winning Iranians over, one dumb arse presser at a time…

06.03.2026 06:17 πŸ‘ 27 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of March 6, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

06.03.2026 06:53 πŸ‘ 253 πŸ” 48 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 3
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Exclusive: US investigation points to likely US responsibility in Iran school strike, sources say Military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school that killed scores of children on Saturday, two U.S. officials told Reu...

Reuters Exclusive

"U.S. military investigators believe it is likely that U.S. forces were responsible for an apparent strike on an Iranian girls' school."

"The strike would rank among the worst cases of civilian casualties in decades of U.S. conflicts in the ​Middle East."

06.03.2026 02:50 πŸ‘ 9902 πŸ” 5220 πŸ’¬ 620 πŸ“Œ 625

β€šWhat emerges is…the β€œstrike-as-strategy” paradox: the substitution of impressive tactical actions for comprehensive strategic design. Under Trump, this tendency is reinforced by a political culture that demands televised displays of military prowess.
…

06.03.2026 07:46 πŸ‘ 62 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

The Maduro raid will encourage the dangerous notion that daring operations and decapitation strikes can help conclude a major conflict. Capturing or killing an enemy leader, the theory goes, will trigger chaos and collapse resistance. History, however, suggests otherwise.β€˜

06.03.2026 07:46 πŸ‘ 49 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1

The U.S. denies Ukraine the arms to hit Russian launchers and arms factories.
Ukraine, a country struggling for its survival, develops its own countermeasures.
The U.S. government mocks Ukraine.
The U.S. goes to war unprepared.
Ukraine comes to rescue the U.S. without mockery or demands.

06.03.2026 05:10 πŸ‘ 448 πŸ” 146 πŸ’¬ 18 πŸ“Œ 3
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For the First Time, U.S. Sides With Russia and China in Ukraine Energy Dispute Washington opposed a resolution backed by many of its allies over the danger posed by attacks on Kyiv’s nuclear energy.

www.wsj.com/world/for-th...

05.03.2026 20:45 πŸ‘ 110 πŸ” 30 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 3
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$3.7 Billion: Estimated Cost of Epic Fury’s First 100 Hours Operation Epic Fury costs nearly $900 million per day, driven by the large expenditure of munitions. Because most of this is not in the budget, the Pentagon will soon need to ask for more money.

Operation Epic Fury costs nearly $900 million per day, driven by the large expenditure of munitions. Because most of this is not in the budget, the Pentagon will soon need to ask for more money.

Learn more from the CSIS Defense and Security Department: https://bit.ly/4bcz5uF

05.03.2026 17:43 πŸ‘ 76 πŸ” 37 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 4