Christian Franzke

Extreme ‘Day Zero’ water shortages may affect nearly 74% of drought‑prone regions by 2100, says research in @natcomms.nature.com. Study maps future water‑scarcity hotspots linked to climate change: spklr.io/633218YgiZ

#WaterScience #ClimateChange

Earth's future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution Abstract. Earth's climate response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions occurs on a variety of spatial scales. To assess climate risks on regional scales and implement adaptation measures, policymak...

This is a collaboration with colleagues from the Alfred Wegener Institute.

Read the paper here:
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

The high-resolution simulations show a substantial increase in regional information relative to the TCo319 experiment, especially over topographically complex terrain. Examples of enhanced regional information include changes in temperature, rainfall, winds, extreme events, tropical cyclones. 🧪

We used the coupled earth system model OpenIFS–FESOM2 with a 9 km atmospheric resolution and a 4–25 km ocean resolution. We conducted a control simulation and 4 coupled transient simulations for the 2000s, 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s. 🧪

Earth's future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution Abstract. Earth's climate response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions occurs on a variety of spatial scales. To assess climate risks on regional scales and implement adaptation measures, policymak...

New paper alert 🧪

Based on global km-scale coupled climate model simulation we just published in Earth System Dynamics:
Earth's future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution

#openaccess

esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

We present a wind reconstruction based on marine diatoms preserved in an Antarctic Peninsula ice core, to reconstruct westerly winds across the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. The poleward shift and acceleration of the westerly winds is unprecedented.
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Timing of the Recent Migration and Intensification of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds Southern Hemisphere Westerly wind reconstruction shows a clear trend since the 1960s, unprecedented in the context of the past 140 years The 1960s wind shift and acceleration is coincident with a...

New paper alert 🧪

Just out: Timing of the Recent Migration and Intensification of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds in GRL @agu.org with colleagues from @bas.ac.uk and Cambridge University

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

#openaccess

Our simulations also show clear evidence that extremes of vector density and EIR increase in the future by almost 100%, suggesting that major malaria epidemic outbreaks will become much more likely.

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We compute the Time Of Emergence of vector density and the infectious biting rate using 50 members of Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble simulations. This reveals that vector densit and EIR will rise significantly and permanently above the pre-industrial background variability.
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Time of Emergence and Future Projections of Extremes of Malaria Infections in Africa Anthropogenic causes have already increased the malaria burden and will increase it further in the next few decades Extremes of entomological inoculation rate are projected to increase, making in...

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Fresh from the press: Out new paper on #malaria in #Africa, Time of Emergence and #extremes

Read here: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

#openaccess

Rules all PIs should follow

For anyone who manages other researchers, I strongly suggest to read this list of rules that young reseachers think PIs should follow. If you think you don't need such improvements, well you are likely the one who needs to read this the most.

🧪 #science #research

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Evidence for preferred propagating terrestrial heatwave pathways due to Rossby wave activity - Nature Communications This study shows that terrestrial heatwaves either propagate or remain stationary along preferred pathways, influenced by Rossby wave activity. The results provide potential for heatwave predictabilit...

The detected propagation pathways are found to provide prior knowledge for occurrences of downstream heatwaves that can be used for identifying precursor signals. Our results provide potential predictability of terrestrial heatwaves.

Read the full paper here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

We examined the spatial propagation of terrestrial heatwaves using a complex network algorithm, and find four preferred propagation pathways of terrestrial heatwaves. Along each preferred pathway, heatwaves evolve in two ways: propagating along the pathway or being stationary

Evidence for preferred propagating terrestrial heatwave pathways due to Rossby wave activity - Nature Communications This study shows that terrestrial heatwaves either propagate or remain stationary along preferred pathways, influenced by Rossby wave activity. The results provide potential for heatwave predictabilit...

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Just out our new paper in Nature Communications on preferred propagating terrestrial heatwave pathways due to Rossby wave activity

#openaccess

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Second day at #egu25 🧪

So far attended sessions on wildfires and also health impacts today

I am positively surprised how many health sessions are at EGU

Title slide of my presentation

Gave my presentation on malaria and climate focusing on time of emergence and extremes

First time that I gave a PICO presentation @egu.eu #egu25 🧪

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First day at @egu.eu 2025
I start with a session on climate and health ITS2.4 PICO spot 2

Climate-driven systemic risk to the sustainable development goals Anthropogenic global warming affects all aspects of ecosystems and human life. Thus far, most climate impact studies have mainly focused on local impacts because climate-driven hazards – e.g., floods,...

Finally our essay on climate-driven systemic risk is out!
Here we argue for more research into integrated modeling frameworks, understanding and modeling of transmission pathways and systemic climate risk governance approaches.

#openaccess
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Read for yourself: journals.plos.org/climate/arti...

Wondering about what brilliant science we have published during February with the #EGUjournals? Check out the latest GeoRoundup, with all the #OpenAccess highlights on the #EGUblogs!

👉 Discover more here: egu.eu/5GIESL/

I would like to be added to the list.

This is me:
ibsclimate.org/people/%ed%8...

Quantifying CO2 forcing effects on lightning, wildfires, and climate interactions A model analysis shows interactions between climate, lightning, wildfires, and changes in the interactions with global warming.

Get the full paper here:
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

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#openaccess

Our results show that with every degree global warming the global mean area burned by fires each year will increase by 14%. This can have substantial effects on ecosystems, infrastructure and human health and livelihoods.

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Read the full press release here:
ibsclimate.org/news/models-...

Our new study on interactive climate-lightning-wildfire was just published in Science Advances

We show that the strongest anthropogenic trends in biomass burning are in southern and central equatorial Africa, Madagascar, Australia, parts of the Mediterranean and western North-America.

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Development of a Data‐Driven Lightning Scheme for Implementation in Global Climate Models Using lightning records spanning 29 years, we develop a climate-dependent lightning scheme applicable at the global scale Compared to established lightning schemes, spatio-temporal variability is...

Just out: paper on new lightning scheme in coupled climate models. While we use machine learning for developing the scheme, it is easy to implement in climate models
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#openaccess

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Fake papers are contaminating the world’s scientific literature, fueling a corrupt industry and slowing legitimate lifesaving medical research ‘Paper mills’ are contaminating the world’s scholarly output with fake papers that hinder research. Lifesaving biomedical fields are especially hard hit.

Big problem nowadays. I am editor at @eurogeosciences.bsky.social journals where we have public discussion periods as part of the peer review process.
Even if the manuscripts are rejected the reviewer reports are publicly available.

theconversation.com/fake-papers-...

I have a postdoc position available in my group on kilometer-scale global #climate modeling and #extremes

There are also opportunities to get involved in other ongoing projects at ICCP

Please contact me if you are interested

ibsclimate.org/jobs/postdoc...

Happy new year!

First sunrise of the new year from Yunsan mountain

A schematic showing three connected pillars (climate science, decision making, and impact science). From Sillmann et al., 2024, CC-BY-4.0.

In a new concept paper following the @wcrpclimate.bsky.social Open Science Conference, we examine links between climate science and decision making regarding extremes and risks. Enhancing these links requires better integration of climate sciences and impact sciences for actionable climate info. 1/3

End of semester grading session