Ben Curry

SOON

Donald Trump, options trader....

From the always brilliant OG blogger @driftglass.bsky.social:

Nobody knows what independents want, because “independent” as a modern political category is a textbook example of what Kurt Vonnegut defined in "Cat's Cradle" as a granfalloon:

"...a proud and meaningless association of human beings"

DEUTSCHE: ".. we have still not come across a single Software company that expects a negative revenue effect from AI in 2026. .. We think AI disruption worries have peaked. We upgrade Tech from Underweight to Neutral and turn overweight Software within Tech." $IGV

Anchoring is my favorite behavioral bias, because oil can be at $95/bbl and up 45% over the last week, and general vibe is one of sincere relief because it's down 20% versus 12 hours ago.

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@miamiherald.com

Iran may be activating sleeper cells outside the country, alert says The U.S. has intercepted encrypted communications believed to have originated in Iran that may serve as “an operational trigger” for “sleeper assets."

Iran War is going just great...

Trump deploys 'Doomsday' nuclear command planes to the Middle East The US military has reportedly launched multiple planes which can survive a nuclear war as the crisis in the Middle East escalates.

Iran War is going just great....

if only there was some place that could tell you how annoying 100s-1000s of slow and regular missiles of these exact types. Maybe there could have been some kind of joint learning and testing there beforehand

Mfg PMIs tomorrow, Fedspeak Tuesday

ADP, services PMIs, Beige Book Weds
Q4 productivity first look, claims Thurs

NFP, Retail Sales Fri

GS thinks +45k headline payrolls, +45k private, UR ticks up to 4.4%
+0.5% Jan core Retail Sales

Mag 7 valuations... $MSFT and $NVDA getting closer to value territory @wisdomtreefunds

YARDENI: “.. in our short-war scenario, oil prices should fall in the coming weeks after a ceasefire .. boosting US consumer spending and benefiting global economies and stock markets. The weekend’s Middle East developments make us even more confident in our Roaring 2020s scenario.”

Evercore ISI on Iran/oil: “A more persistent shift to $80-85 (with unresolved conflict but both sides holding back from energy escalation) would leave a larger imprint on headline inflation globally and have a more lasting impact on terms of trade and real incomes in oil-importing Europe and Asia.”

@jeffmacke @publix arrival has drawn enthusiastic crowds. Hundreds lined up on opening day at a new store near a suburban development... @seekingalpha

... people want to be ripped off, I guess. Consumer is just fine. $KR $WMT team ALDI USA

FUNDSTRAT “.. Mag Seven P/E ratios are now comparable to—and in some cases, lower than—the multiples of some stocks in the staid consumer staples sector.”

Like, everything?

Remember: Donald Trump created this crisis. He walked away from the Iran nuclear deal that was working, promising a "better deal." He didn't deliver. He escalated, abandoned real diplomacy, and has now led us into a conflict that puts us all at risk.

Finance models struggled with analysis. They did okay on single-document questions but very poorly on cross-company tasks. The researchers found info retrieval to be the major bottleneck—especially cross-company retrieval.

The study took 15,000 document segments from thousands of SEC filings and asked AI to perform three kinds of tasks: single-document jobs, cross-company comparisons, and multi-year analysis for one firm.

Why AI Struggles With Real Analyst Work Due diligence requires evidence across firms and time, where current systems fail, according to new research.

In financial research, AI looks impressive when you ask a narrow question about a single company filing, such as revenue last quarter.

But when researchers at Yale and Goldman Sachs asked it to compare two firms’ risk disclosures or track strategy over several years, performance drops fast.

The global wellness industry, at $6.2 trillion a year, is 4 times larger than the global pharmaceutical industry.

The cruelty is the point

Remember #TACO

My god you’re so right

Just remember #TACO

Just remember #TACO

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