George Eaton

After Gorton and Denton Notes on the Gorton and Denton by-election and what it could mean for the Labour Party.

This is one of the best Gorton and Denton post mortems I've read, and it's two possibly winning trajectories for Labour - a centre-left quasi-alliance with the Lib Dems or a Burnham supremacy - are really well argued.

By @residentadviser.bsky.social

mbatangspeaks.substack.com/p/after-gort...

That too of course, wasn’t intended as exhaustive (and has obviously become looser in this timeframe).

Seeing lots attribute this to Brexit. No, it’s the natural consequence of Reeves’ decision to make labour more expensive and capital cheaper (“shock therapy” as some Labour MPs call it).

#1 Stored up inside my head What I'd like from this newsletter

I promised myself that I’d make a bit more effort to share what I’m working on this year, so I’ve started posting on Substack. If you like my work, please do subscribe for very infrequent updates on what I’m writing / reading: open.substack.com/pub/hettieve...

Marginal Gains: how wind is pushing gas out of the power market and… Growth in British renewables cutting electricity prices by up to a quarter.

Yep- and wind is already pushing more expensive gas plants off the grid. Prices would have been 1/3 higher in 2024 without wind

eciu.net/analysis/rep...

The main reason UK energy prices are so high is not net zero but the fact the price of gas still sets the price of electricity. Breaking that link should be the priority.

Reeves was once a more Eurosceptic Labour politician but as Chancellor now has the strongest incentive to unravel the effects of Brexit.

Notable that Reeves denounced Brexit for “cutting us off from our closest trading partners” – political and economic logic points to European integration.

I think that's where the Conservatives will have to end up if they want a future.

There's a big gap in British politics for a Gaullist/Americosceptic right.

Green surge was inevitable now the “wasted vote” argument no longer holds.

Labour will need to offer positive reasons to think again rather than simply saying Greens couldn’t win an election.

Sobering to think that we would have joined a reckless war in the middle east over the weekend had Badenoch or Farage been PM.

And we would be refusing to embrace an energy transition away from reliance on a deeply unstable region.

Starmer's sobriety definitely an asset in the last few days.

£100k childcare cliff edge and 62% marginal rate (71% with student loan) will soon get more attention.

What will war in Iran do to the global economy? Conflict has exposed how much growth depends on energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz

Useful discussion of various scenarios for oil price and inflation.

Roughly:
$80 per barrel: no problem
$100: 0.7pp ish on inflation. Difficult for BoE
$120+: bad news all round

www.ft.com/content/31bf...

Notable that Farage has stopped mentioning real electoral reform ever since first-past-the-post started working in Reform’s favour.

The right’s assumption was that Trump would be an electoral asset.

Instead he’s been a gift to the centre left in Canada, Australia and, now, Denmark.

No mystery why the Danish Social Democrats have called an early election.

You can see the Greenland/Trump effect a mile off.

It's better for a church to become a mosque than a shell Reform's church policy risks the house of God going the same way as the House of Fraser

My column on the afterlife of churches in this week's @newstatesman1913.bsky.social:

It’s not. Its political results are that of a standard European democracy in 2026, mediated through a worse electoral system.

Labour’s Green attacks are misfiring Keir Starmer’s dismissal of the insurgent party as “nuts” won’t work

Wrote last year on why Labour attacking the Greens as “nuts” and “wacky” would alienate precisely the voters it needs. www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Labour's existential crisis The Greens’ by-election triumph is the worst of all worlds for Keir Starmer

One final Morning Call from @georgeeaton.bsky.social, and what a day to go out on!

On the “existential” challenge to Labour of the left-right pincer movement, as evidenced by the Green’s victory today - and why Starmer is starting to resemble Rishi Sunak

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Labour should fear a Green surge The Gorton and Denton by-election gives Zack Polanski’s party a chance to prove it is not a wasted vote

I wrote this a month ago on the threat to Labour of a Green victory – an insider described it to me then as an “existential risk”. www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

The Greens finished second to Labour in 39 seats in 2024 – the party should have been far more alert to the threat on its left from the very start.

Labour should fear a Green surge The Gorton and Denton by-election gives Zack Polanski’s party a chance to prove it is not a wasted vote

I wrote this a month ago on the threat to Labour of a Green victory – an insider described it to me then as an “existential risk”. www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Insightful reflections here at the close of a long & distinguished innings. V best of luck to George for the next chapter

After 17 years at the New Statesman, I leave with a renewed faith in the power of ideas March 2009, the month I joined the New Statesman as a 22-year-old, was a different political time: a Labour chancellor raised taxes on the rich, the

After 17 years at the New Statesman, I leave with a renewed faith in the power of ideas

By @georgeeaton.bsky.social

Thanks Tony, much appreciated (and likewise on your pieces).

Lovely, wise and touching farewell column from George Eaton, who is leaving the NS after 17 years! He has been a brilliant colleague and I'm going to miss him hugely

Some personal news: after 17 wonderful years at the New Statesman I’ve decided it’s time for something new.

Grateful to brilliant colleagues past and present. Here’s my farewell column from this week’s magazine. www.newstatesman.com/comment/2026...

Thanks Samira, I was remembering our early days on the site together with someone just yesterday!