This week’s column on the upcoming battle for London:
- Greens keen to finish off Starmer
- Tory hopes of doing a ‘Ken Baker’
- Kevin Hollinrake tries to charm Nigella
- Reform eye 6 council wins
- Your Party is ‘over’ say organisers
- George Galloway exiled in China
spectator.com/article/coul...
New: Greens surge by four points in a week according to YouGov
Reform UK: 23% (-1)
Greens: 21% (+4)
Labour: 16% (-2)
Tories: 16% (-2)
Lib Dems: 14% (no change)
For Starmer, the Iran crisis – with its potential for regional conflict, oil price spikes and a migration surge – is fraught with danger and few opportunities:
spectator.com/article/star...
PM's statement on Iran:
"Our forces are active and British planes are in the sky today as part of coordinated regional defensive operations to protect our people, our interests, and our allies - as Britain has done before, in line with international law"
Friend of the PM quoted in The Guardian today: “Keir would not have been able to live with himself if he had been forced out of office early without showing the country who he really is and what he’s about.”
Lots of positive tweets for Matt Goodwin this morning from Nigel Farage down through top team and staff. Expect he will get a seat with much more favourable demographics next time around.
Ten years ago, Nigel Farage used to decry "Lib/Lab/Con" – in Gorton and Denton the three great old parties of British politics could not even muster 30 per cent combined
Tonight will boost the profile of the Greens: something which Reform believe plays to their advantage
spectator.com/article/gree...
Greens, Reform and Labour people all suggesting Labour has come third
One Monster Raving Looney activist has smuggled a pint in to the count under a top hat
Reform source: "We have had over 1,000 activists out in the seat today, and we have done all we can in our 440th target seat"
Incidents of family voting in Gorton & Denton reached the highest levels of any election in the past 10 yrs according to Democracy Volunteers:
“The data we have collected today on family voting, when compared to other recent by-elections, is extremely high.”
Reeves, Rishi and Restore Britain: why the world of Westminster is playing a much greater role in the latest season of Industry:
spectator.com/article/i-be...
Some suggestion that Rachel Reeves told Kemi Badenoch to "fuck off" after this line:
Kemi Badenoch: "Perhaps, before he [Starmer] gets on his high horse, he should ask why his backbenchers are saying that they’re being called the ‘Paedo defenders’ party’?”
New Times/Stonehaven MRP poll out puts SNP on course for a majority in the 129-strong Scottish parliament:
SNP – 67 MSPs (+3)
Reform – 25 MSPs (+25)
Labour – 15 MSPs (-7)
Lib Dems – 8 MSPs (+4)
Tory - 7 MSPs (-24)
Green – 7 MSPs (-1)
Changes compared to 2021
Great fun watching poker-faced broadcasters sigh whenever Gorton & Denton gets mentioned on air and then be forced to read out the full list of candidates starting with “Sir Oink A-Lot”
New: Police were seen arriving at Peter Mandelson's home this afternoon before he left in an unmarked car, days after Andrew's arrest h/t The Sun
Labour MP Brain Leishman says the Labour Together smear campaign is some "dark shit"
New: Zia Yusuf pledges to introduce the “Polanski Law” to make “aiding and abetting illegal entry into the UK a criminal offence, regardless of intent”.
In Reform’s words: “This will stop the Green Party endorsed charity industrial complex from facilitating large scale illegal entry“
A joy to have Joy Craig on our podcast to talk about his love of by elections
spectator.com/podcast/why-...
New: Reform UK proposes breaking up Antonia Romeo’s role into three: the Cabinet Secretary, the Head of the Civil Service and the Prime Minister’s Chief Advisor, with the latter held by a political appointee and becoming the most senior person in Number 10 after PM
This week's Spectator column on how Reform's top team plan to "flood the zone" in the run up to 7 May
Farage wants to asphyxiate the Tories and depict Reform as the natural home of the "centre right"
Research team, named after the CRD equivalent, to swell to 20
spectator.com/article/the-...
Am told that Nigel Farage has been in contact with members of the US administration this week too, speaking to those in the Trump cabinet to raise his concerns. Some in UK gov were spooked by Scott Bessent’s criticism at Davos, which followed his dinner with Farage.
Understand that Sir Iain Duncan Smith - a staunch critic of the Chagos deal - has just got back from a week in Washington where he has been lobbying on this issue.
The Tory MP met with figures from the White House, National Security Council and Departments of War and State.
Jenrick: "As a signal of intent, today, Reform is changing our policy on the two-child cap for Universal Credit. The policy was well-meaning. We want to help working families have more children. But right now, we just cannot afford to do so with welfare. So it has to go."
Exc: James Orr is Reform’s new Head of Policy, with Zia Yusuf focusing on his new Home Affairs brief
Will work closely with friend Danny Kruger on getting ready for government + focus on developing talent pipeline
spectator.com/article/at-t...
Vintage quote in Tina Brown piece. After lunch with the-then Prince Andrew, Boris commented, “I’m the last person to be a republican, but fuck. If I ever have to spend another lunch like that, I soon will be.”
Reform’s new shadow cabinet team:
Leader: Nigel Farage
Chancellor: Robert Jenrick
Home: Zia Yusuf
Business, Trade & Energy: Richard Tice
Education & Skills: Suella Braverman
Chief Whip: Lee Anderson
Mix of “Weakest Link” & “Take Me Out” vibes to the Reform presser set up.
New Shad cab team are introduced, get a spotlight on them and then it gets turned out when their time is up.
