Alicia Garcia Herrero 艾西亞

#China’s Government Report is all about buying room on growth while prioritizing self-reliance
aliciagarciaherrero.substack.com/p/chinas-gov...

China’s Involution Trap: Profitless Growth Cannot Last - The Wire China Letting zombie companies fail will be painful, but is essential for building a healthier economy, argues Alicia García-Herrero in this op-ed.

Op-Ed: Some Chinese companies manage to survive — and even thrive — despite the brutal price competition...But this is only a small share of Chinese corporates.

@aligarciaherrero.bsky.social writes on why so many Chinese companies aren't making money:

Ces options de diversification sont aujourd'hui remises en question par les attaques contre Téhéran et l'avenir du régime des Mollahs. Une pierre dans le jardin de Xi Jinping… Et sans doute un sujet de discussion entre les deux leaders lors du déplacement de Trump à Pékin prévu le 31 mars.

Pétrole et gaz : comment la guerre au Moyen-Orient bouleverse l’équilibre mondial de l’énergie Si le spectre de la crise pétrolière de 1979 hante toujours les esprits, le risque d'un chaos mondial semble pour l'heure exclu.

Mes opinions citées par @lexpress.fr : Le port pakistanais de Gwadar, proche de la frontière iranienne, devait permettre à la Chine de réduire sa dépendance au détroit de Malacca et, potentiellement, au détroit d’Ormuz pour le pétrole iranien.
www.lexpress.fr/economie/pol...

Asia’s big economies brace for Iran war energy shock Some of the world’s biggest fuel importers rush to secure oil and gas supplies as Middle East conflict chokes flow

Some thoughts for @financialtimes.com: "The situation is terrible for #Taiwan, #SouthKorea and #Thailand, given their high levels of dependence on the #Hormuz route and lack of robust strategic reserves."

www.ft.com/content/b5ce...

China ramps up 'high stakes' tech race with US as economic imbalances deepen China set out a five-year roadmap to turbocharge scientific breakthroughs and embed AI across its industrial ​economic machine, framing technological dominance as a core national security goal.

Views for @reuters.com on #China: "As parliament convenes expect rhetoric on social security improvements and consumption support, but don't anticipate radical new enforcement mechanisms ​that could burden businesses and risk destabilising employment."

www.reuters.com/world/china/...

China signals tolerance for slower growth with 4.5%-5% target for 2026 | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis BEIJING--China set its economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5%-5%, a slight downgrade from the 5% pace achieved last year, which leaves room for greater, albeit not decisive, efforts to ‌curb industri...

Thoughts for The Asahi Shimbun: "This highlights a core tension in #Beijing’s structural reforms."

www.asahi.com/ajw/articles...

Wage growth has lagged across much of the economy, limiting how much households can spend. Without stronger income growth, policies to boost spending are unlikely to have much effect. How can you consume if you don’t earn any money?

China Sets Economy’s Growth Target Below 5% for First Time in Decades

Views for @nytimes.com on #China: Those measures, however, have not been enough to make a significant difference and don’t solve the underlying issues.
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/b...

Venezuela only accounted for about 4 per cent of China’s seaborne crude imports. Putin might push Beijing to pay higher prices for #Russian oil and gas. China is in a weaker position now.

China to lean on Russian oil as Iran crisis chokes supply Energy disruption set to force Xi Jinping closer to Vladimir Putin and to consider drawing on reserves

Views for @financialtimes.com: The US-Israeli military campaign against #Iran was much more important for #Chinese #energy than the US abduction of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January.

www.ft.com/content/1149...

International institutions’ share of dollar loans could fall in sectors like infrastructure and commodities as a result.

China’s Cheap Money Is Shaking $9.5 Trillion Global Loan Market Chinese banks, flush with low-cost funds, are reshaping parts of the global loan market, underscoring how deflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy are increasingly influencing comp...

Views for @bloomberg.com: #Chinese #banks are injecting more liquidity and competition in Asia’s loan market and for established foreign banks, it’s disruptive.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

China was facing surging #energy #demands because of the rapid rollout of datacentres needed to train artificial intelligence, a key pillar of China’s economic plans for the next five years. The trend is less and less oil at below market prices.

Trump’s show of force in the Middle East creates a weakness China can exploit Beijing can again leverage its critical minerals dominance over an increasingly busy US military, as Taiwan slides further down the White House list of priorities

Views for @theguardian.com: This is not coming at a good time for #China.

www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

Why China Is Doing So Little to Help a Friend Under Fire Beijing sees risks in offering more than rhetorical support despite its longstanding friendship with the regime in Iran.

Some thoughts for @wsj.com: “It is very discouraging for anybody who believes that #China was offering an alternative because there is no alternative. China won’t be there if you need them.”

www.wsj.com/world/iran-c...

Oil and beyond oil: What might be the economic implications of #Iran’s war on #Asia?
aliciagarciaherrero.substack.com/p/oil-and-be...

Why China Is Unlikely to Rally Behind Iran After US-Israeli Strikes China is Iran’s most important economic partner, buying some 90% of its oil exports and providing a financial lifeline to the heavily sanctioned regime. But as US and Israeli strikes pummel Iran, Beij...

In practice, only $2 billion to $3 billion has been confirmed since then, a figure that pales next to China’s commitments in the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Why China Is Unlikely to Rally Behind Iran After US-Israeli Strikes China is Iran’s most important economic partner, buying some 90% of its oil exports and providing a financial lifeline to the heavily sanctioned regime. But as US and Israeli strikes pummel Iran, Beij...

Views for @bloomberg.com: Despite headline deals suggesting otherwise, Chinese investment in #Iran has been modest. In 2021, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement during a visit to Tehran that reportedly envisioned up to $400 billion in Chinese investment.

Iran is a huge headache for China, but bodes ill for Taiwan | Euractiv An even more fractured Transatlantic Alliance as a consequence of the situation in the Middle East can only be to Beijing's benefit

Here is my Op-Ed for Euractiv on what #Iran means for #China: one more shock to #energy #security after #Venezuela but with a potential silver lining: #Taiwan.

www.euractiv.com/opinion/iran...

China emerges as big winner from Supreme Court's tariff ruling The court ruled just weeks before Trump’s coming trip to China, where he hopes to maintain a delicate trade truce with the world’s second-biggest economy.

Thoughts for @nbcnews.com: "China is the ‘biggest winner’ from the Supreme Court ruling, with an effective U.S. tariff rate now much closer to that of other countries."

www.nbcnews.com/world/asia/c...

Iranian oil is virtually all settled in renminbi through China’s International Payment System (CIPS) which makes Iran completely dependent on China also for imports, this arrangement has kept Iran’s economy afloat amid Western isolation, while providing Beijing with cheap fuel.

Iran conflict: Israel targets Hizbollah in Lebanon Oil and gold rise while US stock index futures slip as conflict escalates

Views for @financialtimes.com on the attacks against #Iran: The attacks were a more significant threat to #China’s strategic interests than the US military action in Venezuela at the start of the year. 13 per cent of China’s #oil imports were from Iran.

www.ft.com/content/91ca...

Iran, a bigger headache for China than Venezuela, but with Taiwan as potential silver lining The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, dwarfs the implications of the US intervention in Venezuela for global geopolitics.

Iran, a bigger headache for China than Venezuela, but with Taiwan as potential silver lining
aliciagarciaherrero.substack.com/p/iran-a-big...

Cojones. Cajones means drawers🤔

'Bigger ramifications than Venezuela': Markets brace for impact after U.S. strikes Iran Investors are bracing for impact after the U.S.'s attacks on Iran, a move they see as carrying far larger market consequences than the Venezuela campaign.

Why #Iran is a MUCH MUCH bigger event than #Venezuela. My views for @cnbc.com www.cnbc.com/2026/02/28/m...

In Depth: China Lifts the Lid on Multitrillion-Yuan Corporate IOU Market Industry group has mapped out nearly 2.6 trillion yuan of unregulated financing tools that set off a campaign to fix how big companies pay their suppliers

#China's #profitless economy is starting to show the cracks. Regulators have begun mapping out the opaque market for corporate #IOUs that allows big-name companies like automaker #BYD to defer payments to suppliers on a massive scale via @caixin www.caixinglobal.com/2026-02-13/i...

This is not a call for protectionism. It is a call for proportionality and realism in the face of a structural challenge that existing rules are not designed to handle.

The development of a new tool that would replace anti-subsidy and anti-dumping measures with something pegged to exchange rates or inflation, in light of a large depreciation of the yuan against the euro and years of consecutive deflation in China.

EU seeks independence, survival amid China-US economic dominance European leaders meet to address the bloc’s economic woes, reliance on China and US, and shielding key industries from protectionist policies.

Views for @scmpnews.bsky.social: The #EU is experiencing a severe and accelerating #China shock and must move quickly to limit the damage.
www.scmp.com/news/china/d...