ARC 21st Century Weather

El Niño & Australia: Reconstructing our historical climate From ship logs to tree rings, researchers reveal how ENSO shaped climate for centuries, and why today’s planning assumptions may be flawed.

New research led by 21st Century Weather's Senior Research Fellow Dr Mandy Freund shows that modern temperature and rainfall records capture only a small slice of ENSO’s long and complex history. Revealing centuries of behaviour before modern observations.

- 21centuryweather.org.au/reconstructi...

Land clearing found to intensify heatwaves, study shows New research shows land clearing and rapid development can sharply worsen heatwaves beyond global warming, with direct implications for heat in Australia.

New research shows that in some African regions, heatwaves could become 12 times longer by the end of the century if high emission rates and land degradation continue.

Amazing work led by 21st Century Weather Research Fellow Oluwafemi ADEYERI of ANU: www.21centuryweather.org.au/deforestatio...

Climate change made January heatwave five times more likely New analysis finds climate change made Australia’s heatwave five times more likely, added 1.6°C, and could make events biennial without rapid emissions cuts.

Human-induced climate change made the intense early January heatwave in Australia five times more likely, according to a new analysis by World Weather Attribution.

Australians can now expect to experience similar heatwaves about once every five years.

- www.21centuryweather.org.au/climate-chan...

Ocean fronts play key role in absorbing carbon New research reveals ocean fronts account for 72% of the ocean's total carbon dioxide uptake, reshaping how scientists understand climate regulation.

New research published in Nature Climate Change shows that narrow fronts - covering just 36% of the global ocean - are responsible for 72% of the sea's carbon dioxide uptake, absorbing around 1.8 billion tonnes of carbon each year.

For more on this work: www.21centuryweather.org.au/ocean-fronts...

Great Barrier Reef bleaching linked to trade winds, doldrums Monash University research shows calm doldrum weather and failing trade winds are key drivers of mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef.

Lead researcher and PhD candidate Lara Richards of Monash University explains new research that has identified calm 'doldrum' weather, and the absence of cooling trade winds, as a key driver of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef.

Read more here: 21centuryweather.org.au/doldrum-days...

Beyond net Zero: Understanding our climate's future Explore what happens beyond net zero emissions, why climate impacts continue, and how early action reduces long-term risks for communities and ecosystems.

What happens to our climate after we reach net zero?

The scale of impacts will depend strongly on how quickly we cut emissions today, and take action to halt emissions.

To learn more, check out this new Topic Brief in full: 21centuryweather.org.au/engage/topic...

Net zero delay drives centuries of extreme heatwaves New research shows every five-year delay to net zero fuels hotter, longer, and more frequent heatwaves for centuries, especially in vulnerable regions

Modelling shows record-breaking heatwaves are locked in for 1,000 years, even under net zero pathways.

Every five-year delay in reaching net zero makes heatwaves hotter, longer and more frequent, with no return to pre-industrial conditions for centuries.

- 21centuryweather.org.au/deadly-recor...

State of the Climate: Earth at its hottest in 125,000 years The 2025 State of the Climate Report reveals Earth’s hottest year in 125,000 years, with 22 of 35 vital signs at critical levels.

The 2025 State of the Climate Report has been released, indicating that 22 of the Earth’s 35 vital signs are being pushed to critical levels, as the planet reaches its hottest temperature in the last 125,000 years.

Led by Oregon State University, read more: 21centuryweather.org.au/the-earth-is...

Australia's droughts have intensified in recent decades New research reveals worsening impacts of droughts across Australia’s key regions, threatening food security, water supply, and economic resilience.

Australia’s droughts are changing, and so are their impacts, writes UNSW PhD student Matt Grant.

A new study, titled 'Historical trends of seasonal droughts in Australia', reveals how drought patterns have shifted over the past century.

Read more here: www.21centuryweather.org.au/droughts-are...

Negin Nazarian wins AGU Early Career Award 2025 21st Century Weather’s Negin Nazarian honoured with AGU’s 2025 Global Environmental Change Early Career Award for her urban climate research.

A huge congratulations to 21st Century Weather Deputy Director @neginnazarian.bsky.social for receiving the 2025 Global Environmental Change Early Career Award from @agu.org!

Read more here: 21centuryweather.org.au/negin-nazari...

The next generation of climate & weather scientists | Totally Cooked E007 YouTube video by 21st Century Weather

Sarah and Iain Strachan sit down with three emerging researchers: Bethan White, Rachael Isphording, and Wil Laura!

Talking about the motivations that drew them into climate science, from childhood experiences of hurricanes in Alabama to growing up in Peru:

Live now: www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FWN...

We are hosting a Masterclass for our partners and stakeholders from government and industry! Deepening your knowledge and understanding of weather and climate science! 🎓

📌 UNSW Law Theatre, Sydney
⏱️ Tue 2 Sep: 9:30am-5pm
💵 Free to attend
Register here: lnkd.in/gCUMhpuv
Agenda here: lnkd.in/gHdZHMj8

A special ep of Totally Cooked is brewing, tackling common misconceptions about all things weather and climate.

Please post any ideas you'd like to see cooked (can be anon too) below.

Eg. “El Nino always means dry weather or drought in Australia, and La Nina always mean wet weather or flood.”

Climate change makes US Southwest drought inevitable New research shows climate change and air pollution have reduced rainfall in the US Southwest, locking in drought even under El Niño-like conditions.

Climate change is making drought inevitable in the US Southwest. A new study shows that even El Niño-like conditions can’t overcome the drying effect of global warming and air pollution.

- 21centuryweather.org.au/climate-chan...

#ClimateScience #Drought #ElNino #USSouthwest #ClimateChange

Why Climate Change Continues After Net Zero Even after net zero, climate change continues. Sea levels rise, oceans warm, and risks remain. Adaptation and clear communication are essential.

Reaching net zero is not the end of climate change, and we need to start communicating that more clearly.

A new paper led by Andrew King and featuring Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick calls for a shift in how we talk about climate futures.

Have a read now: 21centuryweather.org.au/beyond-net-z...

New study shows cloud loss contributing to record-breaking temperatures NASA-led study shows Earth’s cloud cover is shrinking, amplifying warming. Fewer clouds mean more heat absorbed and record temperatures worldwide.

Earth is losing clouds — fast.
Storm zones have shrunk by up to 3% per decade.
That’s helping drive record-breaking heat.

New NASA-led research featuring @Weather21C shows how less cloud = more warming.

Read more: 21centuryweather.org.au/new-study-sh...

#ClimateScience #GlobalWarming #CloudCover

New Australian @amosupdates.bsky.social President Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick is showing her stripes in distinguished company.

Thanks to The Hon. Matt Kean, Chair of the Climate Change Authority, Australia's Chief Scientist Tony Haymet PhD, and Great Barrier Reef expert Ove Hoegh-Guldberg.

Dark Oceanography: Climate Science & Music at Monash Discover Dark Oceanography, a new performance merging ocean climate data and sound. Premiere 27 July, with a public salon event on 21 July at Monash.

What does ocean climate data sound like?

Dark Oceanography is a new music performance that turns swirling ocean eddies into sound, using climate model data and spatial audio.

Salon discussion Monday 21 July.
Premieres Sunday 27 July at Monash.

For more: www.21centuryweather.org.au/dark-oceanog...

Future rainfall and atmospheric rivers in a warmer world How climate change and moisture thresholds shape the future of atmospheric rivers and rainfall in Australia. New research from Dr Kim Reid.

As the climate warms, the atmosphere holds more moisture, but what does that mean for extreme rain and atmospheric rivers?

@drkimclimate.bsky.social, Research Fellow at 21st Century Weather and the University of Melbourne, breaks it down in a new study:

www.21centuryweather.org.au/future-rainf...

Coming soon: Totally Cooked – The Climate & Weather Podcast!

Science, weather, dark humour. No jargon, no sugar-coating.
Hosted by @sarahinscience.bsky.social & @instrachan.bsky.social.
First three episodes drop Friday 20 June.

Follow us here: www.21centuryweather.org.au/engage/total...

Right Here, Right Now Global Climate Summit | UNSW Sydney A global dialogue on climate change and human rights.

Our Chief Investigator Nicola Maher is examining how Australia’s role in driving climate change is linked to real and measurable human harms.

📅 Wednesday 5 June
🕐 12:15–1:00pm AEST
📍 In person at UNSW Kensington or online via the global livestream.

Register: www.events.unsw.edu.au/event/right-...

An uncertain future for the Antarctic Slope Current Scientists are working to understand a risk to Antarctica, after finding climate change could alter the ocean current protecting the frozen continent

Scientists are working to better understand a risk to Antarctica’s future. New research in Geophysical Research Letters predicts the melting of Antarctic ice will alter the Antarctic Slope Current, estimating it will be around 50 per cent faster by 2050.

- 21centuryweather.org.au/an-uncertain...

1 week wrapped at the WCRP Global KM-Scale Hackathon 2025!

650+ people, 10+ global nodes, working on the cutting edge of climate science and modelling.

We hosted the Aus node in partnership with NCI and ACCESS-NRI, covering 10 projects.

This is just the start... 🌐💡
#WCRPHackathon #ClimateScience

Understanding rainfall variability in the tropics When it comes to rainfall, not all places in the tropics are equal, and one reason for this is the distribution of water vapour across the globe.

The tropics may be hot and rainy, but not all tropical places feel the same. The secret lies in how water vapor (humidity) is spread around the globe, writes Monash University PhD student Corey Robinson.

Have a read - 21centuryweather.org.au/understandin...

Melissa Hart among Wellcome Trust grant recipients Melissa Hart and her collaborators have received AU$4.2 million in Wellcome Trust grant funding to research the heat health burden on First Nations communities.

Congratulations to our Associate Director @melissatraveler.bsky.social and collaborators who have received AU$4.2 million in Wellcome Trust grant funding to research heat health burden on First Nations communities in under-resourced remote Australia!

- www.21centuryweather.org.au/melissa-hart...

Job opportunities in climate science & weather change 21st Century Weather is recruiting postdoctoral researchers in climate modelling and weather change research.

Job opportunity: Lecturer or Senior Lecturer based at Monash University.

Do you have expertise in one or more areas, including atmospheric dynamics, physical meteorology, atmospheric modelling, and similar disciplines?

Apply now.
Closes on Friday 2 May.

- 21centuryweather.org.au/about-us/pos...

How machine learning can decode wind patterns in our cities Researchers at UNSW have developed a model to predict urban wind flow with precision, using handheld devices.

Imagine predicting the wind flow around you with precision – using an accessible, lightweight, no 'advance expertise' needed model anyone could run?

Research undertaken at UNSW, led by Jiachen Lu and @neginnazarian.bsky.social, has worked at just that.

- 21centuryweather.org.au/how-machine-...

Local extremes, global impacts: Loss & Damage Attribution A significant outcome of the UN COP meetings has been the creation of a new fund to support countries dealing with the Loss & Damage caused by climate change.

Impact attribution can help us to look beyond local extreme events to their global consequences when fairly calculating Loss & Damage.

Led by Camille Mora, this interdisciplinary study features some of our wonderful chief investigators.

- www.21centuryweather.org.au/local-extrem...

Job opportunities in climate science & weather change 21st Century Weather is recruiting postdoctoral researchers in climate modelling and weather change research.

We are recruiting for a Research Fellow based at Monash University!

Working with @ailiegallant.bsky.social on weather resources critical for renewable energy and agriculture, and an opportunity to work with the Bureau of Meteorology.

Closes April 24 - www.21centuryweather.org.au/about-us/pos...

Job opportunities in climate science & weather change 21st Century Weather is recruiting postdoctoral researchers in climate modelling and weather change research.

We are recruiting for a Research Fellow based at The Australian National University!

Undertaking research to investigate small scale atmospheric and oceanic processes and their role in setting the mean state.

Applications close on Sunday 20 April.

- www.21centuryweather.org.au/about-us/pos...