Naunihal Singh's Avatar

Naunihal Singh

@naunihal

Professor, writer, magpie, bad at introducing myself. Author of "Seizing Power: The Strategic Logic of Military Coups" All views my own and not those of my employer or anybody else.

1,929
Followers
902
Following
190
Posts
20.06.2023
Joined
Posts Following

Latest posts by Naunihal Singh @naunihal

Preview
More than 11,000 canceled flights: Middle East travel chaos in 5 charts | CNN Hundreds of thousands of travelers are stranded in the Middle East after the cancellation of thousands of flights as war rages across the region.

Hundreds of thousands of travelers are stranded in the Middle East after the cancellation of thousands of flights as war rages across the region.

05.03.2026 21:30 πŸ‘ 221 πŸ” 91 πŸ’¬ 15 πŸ“Œ 6
Trains were seen operating in both directions on the track

Trains were seen operating in both directions on the track

WAYMO

WAYMO

Jan: Phoenix Waymo passenger nopes out of car which turned onto light rail tracks in front of oncoming train https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTOde4jCMt0/

03.03.2026 01:33 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

At all three places where I taught, veterans and military students are admired for their service, their ability to get their academic work done quickly and extremely well, and for often balancing family and school.

Not *once* have I ever heard a faculty member disparage a military student.

28.02.2026 01:02 πŸ‘ 139 πŸ” 27 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 6
Preview
β€˜Completely shattered.’ Changes to NSF’s graduate student fellowship spur outcry The announcement comes months later than usual, leaving many would-be applicants stranded

NSF changed its eligibility requirements in September, a last minute changed that caused much outcry.

www.science.org/content/arti...

27.02.2026 17:27 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Logics of Race and Capitalism in the Political Economy of Time: The Case of Military Naturalizations | Polity: Vol 58, No 1 When the US exchanges citizenship rights for military service it is working within a political economy of time, where time is the medium of exchange. This paper argues that military naturalizations in...

In "Logics of Race and Capitalism in the Political Economy of Time," Alfredo Gonzalez shows that Congress deliberately delays non-citizen service members' naturalization, reinforcing racialized inequality. Read it now: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
#Citizenship #RacialCapitalism #PoliSky

26.02.2026 19:14 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

"Fun fact" is shitposter for "memento mori"

24.02.2026 02:39 πŸ‘ 169 πŸ” 32 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1

A Knight of Seven Boroughs

24.02.2026 13:53 πŸ‘ 1464 πŸ” 364 πŸ’¬ 16 πŸ“Œ 3
Preview
It's Official: the Cybertruck is More Explosive than the Ford Pinto - FuelArc News We now have a full year of data for the Cybertruck, and a strange preponderance of headlines about Cybertrucks exploding into flames, including several fatalities. That’s more than enough data to comp...

The Ford Pinto had a death rate of 85 people for 10 million cars sold. The Cybertruck hasn't sold 10 million, but the fatality rate so far maths out to 1,452 people killed per 10 million sold.

The Cybertruck may be the deadliest road car, for the occupants, ever sold.

fuelarc.com/evs/its-offi...

23.02.2026 21:24 πŸ‘ 9114 πŸ” 4210 πŸ’¬ 249 πŸ“Œ 517

Okay, this is the very rare Substack post that's worth loading the Nazi newsletter site for. I am *incredibly* surprised I kept about 90% comprehension until I hit the 1100s.

24.02.2026 00:35 πŸ‘ 323 πŸ” 65 πŸ’¬ 45 πŸ“Œ 8
Post image Post image Post image Post image

β€œSpace City Sigma,” Indian show inspired by β€œStar Trek”. via @naunihal.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDFu...

24.02.2026 04:25 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
The Trump Administration Is Ending Aid That It Says Saves Lives The State Department will let lifesaving projects expire because β€œthere is no strong nexus between the humanitarian response and U.S. national interests,” according to an internal email.

Exclusive: An internal State Department email obtained by @hana-kiros.bsky.social reveals that the U.S. plans to end all of its current lifesaving aid to seven African countries.

23.02.2026 00:19 πŸ‘ 155 πŸ” 117 πŸ’¬ 26 πŸ“Œ 52

I feel like I need to apologize to all my previous students to whom I taught that the presidency is weak

22.02.2026 16:39 πŸ‘ 108 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 0

Even I did not think leaders mattered THIS MUCH

22.02.2026 13:03 πŸ‘ 892 πŸ” 78 πŸ’¬ 27 πŸ“Œ 10
"I had a teacher there called Mr Roseblade and I looked up to him as a kind of rock star. He'd teach us Ginsberg
and stuff, and he spoke Punjabi as well." Was he Asian? "No, he was a Jewish guy from Wolverhampton. The seven years I was there was almost a metaphor for how Britain was changing. When I started, it was double-barrelled surnames, sons of diplomats and kids wearing rugby shirts, and in my time it became more Jewish and more Asian. The transition was painful."
For whom? "For the school." He talks

"I had a teacher there called Mr Roseblade and I looked up to him as a kind of rock star. He'd teach us Ginsberg and stuff, and he spoke Punjabi as well." Was he Asian? "No, he was a Jewish guy from Wolverhampton. The seven years I was there was almost a metaphor for how Britain was changing. When I started, it was double-barrelled surnames, sons of diplomats and kids wearing rugby shirts, and in my time it became more Jewish and more Asian. The transition was painful." For whom? "For the school." He talks

Riz Ahmed’s English teacher was a Jewish guy who learned Punjabi from Wolverhampton friends https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2013/apr/27/riz-ahmed-actor-rapper-ranter

18.02.2026 00:17 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

The other day Manchester United’s co-owner Jim Ratcliffe said the UK had been "colonised by immigrants"….today there’s this billboard outside of Old Trafford πŸ”₯….way to go Manchester πŸ’ͺ!

13.02.2026 21:33 πŸ‘ 5083 πŸ” 1222 πŸ’¬ 67 πŸ“Œ 45
Preview
The billionaires' eugenics project: how Epstein infiltrated Harvard, muzzled the humanities and preached master-race science Edge - Jeffrey Epstein's favourite intellectual salon - was sold to me as a gathering of the world's finest minds, writes Virginia Heffernan. The files reveal it was something far darker: a decades-lo...

NEW: Read this terrific piece @virginiaheffernan.bsky.social for @thenerve.news in which she unpicks Edge.org, the hugely influential 'salon' funded by Epstein & threaded through with race science & eugenics.
1/

www.thenerve.news/p/epstein-bi...

15.02.2026 11:18 πŸ‘ 1859 πŸ” 1063 πŸ’¬ 55 πŸ“Œ 128

How many times, in how many contexts, in how many ways am I going to have to say that this is what "AI" doesβ€” what it fundamentally *is*β€” before it sinks in? That all Bullshit engines do is statistically correlate training data & inputs via their weights to produce outputs you are likely to accept…

15.02.2026 03:57 πŸ‘ 2362 πŸ” 711 πŸ’¬ 46 πŸ“Œ 31

feeling this VERY HARD THESE DAYS

12.02.2026 21:29 πŸ‘ 167 πŸ” 20 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 0

Awww man, my beard does not need to have chunks of cream cheese in it! Give some of us the option for a schmear rather than gobs and globs!

12.02.2026 13:27 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

11.02.2026 17:00 πŸ‘ 640 πŸ” 223 πŸ’¬ 30 πŸ“Œ 51

β€œAt least 10 people were injured between late 2021 and November 2025, according to the reports. Most allegedly involved errors in which the TruDi Navigation System misinformed surgeons about the location of their instruments while they were using them inside patients’ heads during operations.”

09.02.2026 13:10 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

These insights are largely drawn from a recent article I published with Paul Johnson at @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

06.02.2026 14:19 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Hudson Valley
177
RACHEL'S REVOLUTION: THE CUMULATIVE
POWER OF INDIVIDUAL ACTS
As the long War of American Independence approached its end in Dutchess County, New York, a slave named Rachel resolved to free herself from bond-age. In 1781, she ran away from her master. He accused her of stealing his property by taking the clothing on her back. Rachel was outraged by the charge of theft. They were her clothes. Probably she had made them. A week later she came back, set fire to her master's house, and escaped to British lines in New York City. Then she disapeared and probably took a new identity. 

Rachel was not alone. Many slaves acted independently to free them…

Hudson Valley 177 RACHEL'S REVOLUTION: THE CUMULATIVE POWER OF INDIVIDUAL ACTS As the long War of American Independence approached its end in Dutchess County, New York, a slave named Rachel resolved to free herself from bond-age. In 1781, she ran away from her master. He accused her of stealing his property by taking the clothing on her back. Rachel was outraged by the charge of theft. They were her clothes. Probably she had made them. A week later she came back, set fire to her master's house, and escaped to British lines in New York City. Then she disapeared and probably took a new identity. Rachel was not alone. Many slaves acted independently to free them…

As an aside, Rachel is a legend. (From Fischer’s β€œAfrican Founders”)

04.02.2026 13:02 πŸ‘ 720 πŸ” 120 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 22
Jerry Lawson, the inventor of the video game cartridge.

Jerry Lawson, the inventor of the video game cartridge.

This is Jerry Lawson. He invented the video game cartridge for the Fairchild Channel F system. Because of his invention, many consoles had cartridges and CD formats and would become the norm.

The Atari 2600, NES, Genesis, and many consoles wouldn't exist without him.

Happy Black History Month.

01.02.2025 23:04 πŸ‘ 23339 πŸ” 10100 πŸ’¬ 88 πŸ“Œ 155

"A 2-year-old boy was breastfeeding in detention. One 6-year-old boy had leukemia. An 8-year-old girl began wetting the bed. A 14-year-old girl engaged in self-harm." A must read.

01.02.2026 13:58 πŸ‘ 463 πŸ” 304 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 10
Preview
How ICE Already Knows Who Minneapolis Protesters Are

A Minnesota woman observing ICE agents in her car was cornered on one-way streets. An agent approached, called her by nameβ€”citing facial recognition. Days later, her Global Entry and TSA privileges were revoked, with no explanation.

30.01.2026 11:55 πŸ‘ 16422 πŸ” 10014 πŸ’¬ 839 πŸ“Œ 1355
Post image

Also missing from Prof. Wurman's anti-birthright citizenship brief: The Act of Settlement 1701, a fundamental constitutional statute. Not only is subjecthood tied to geography, but eligibility to hold a position on the Privy Council or sit in Parliament was tethered to birth within the realm alone.

30.01.2026 14:23 πŸ‘ 207 πŸ” 50 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 2