Mark Dodson

Duh. Gonna delete. Thx

Even the stock market hates losing an hour of sleep...
“Since 1998 the S&P 500 has produced an average loss of 0.30% in the Monday session following the time change, compared with +0.03% on all other days of the calendar.” – Mark Hulbert
buff.ly/qiBMbwa

'A Hindenburg Omen triggered yesterday while the S&P 500 closed below its 100 day moving average...Historically, when this occurs, $SPX was lower 2 weeks later about two-thirds of the time.' - The Market Stats

‘Retail’s appetite to buy the dip has remained a dominant force in early-2026 flows. Year-to-date, average net notional traded on our platform has been 2.5x larger on S&P down days than on up days.’ www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-ins...

Fresh Shocks, Same Strategy: Unfazed Retail Investors Keep Hitting ‘Buy’ Individual investors have kept on buying through recent stock slides.

“It’s a huge testament to the psychology of American investors—they’re showing a huge ability to basically see the glass half full in any set of circumstances,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “The mindset has become ‘this too shall pass.’”

www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...

Welp! That was our signal 🚨

AI disruption and private credit worries haven’t rattled asset managers – net long US equity futures exposure just hit a new cycle high.

Leverage is still king.
Investor preference for leverage over cash is now within 0.5 percentage points of the dot-com extreme.

Record bifurcation – from last week’s report.
The NASDAQ High Low Logic Index set a record. Our broader U.S. HLLI (NYSE, NASDAQ, NYSE American) posted its 3rd-highest reading.
Historically, when weekly HLLI ≥ 6:
• Avg 12-mo returns are negative
• Risk of 10%–20% drawdowns more than doubles

Blue Owl permanently halts redemptions at private credit fund aimed at retail investors New York investment group backtracks from earlier plan to reopen to withdrawals

“investors in Blue Owl Capital Corp II would no longer be able to redeem their investments in quarterly intervals but that the company would instead return investors’ capital in episodic payments as it sells down assets in coming quarters and years.”
www.ft.com/content/b2f2...

Dispersion spread in the 97th percentile over the past three decades. Citadel Rubner $SPX

Over the past 30 days, the S&P 500 is down 1.4%, while the average stock in the index has moved 10%

And…he’s gone. When I clicked, “page not found.” Problem solved?

GS: Evidence from Academic Studies Suggests AI Adoption Boosts Labor Productivity by Around 24% on Average

“Net notional on our platform has reached levels we have never observed before...The magnitude, persistence, and breadth of buying activity have materially exceeded prior peaks, underscoring retail’s role as a primary source of incremental demand in early 2026.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"analysts expect strong data center-related demand to boost overall power demand by 1.2pp on average in 2026-2030, accounting for nearly half of overall demand growth of 2.6% annualized"
buff.ly/N4qjUMb

"The ratio of those in employment to the entire population is unimpressive. But repeating that exercise for those in the prime working ages of 25 to 54 yields a very different outcome. For all practical purposes, the US appears to be close to full employment." - John Authers buff.ly/hGs4TUD

You might have seen Emerging Markets breaking out...

But it's not just stock prices.

EM forward earnings estimates have smashed through to new all-time highs. This is a fundamental breakout to back the price breakout. 📈

The Ivies Are Having Second Thoughts About Investing in Private Equity A crowded field and subpar returns have frustrated America’s wealthiest universities, some of private-capital firms’ most-loyal clients

'Princeton...lowering expectations for its endowment’s returns because its private-capital investments have disappointed. Yale trimmed...portfolio of leveraged buyouts...Harvard...cashing out of some private-market investments early is now part of a long-term strategy. '

"broadest measure of FMS sentiment, based on cash levels, equity allocation, and global growth expectations highest since Jun '21" - Source: BofA, H/T: Neith Sethi @neilksethi.bsky.social

probably the most important chart of the last 3 months

Poof… and it’s gone.

Corporate quality spread (Baa – Aaa) just hit its narrowest level in 60 years.
Credit markets are pricing very little stress.

“This has pushed buybacks and dividends from the group to the lowest level since the tech bubble.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/852

‘The era of tech buybacks has ended.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/850 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

Precious metals: average daily retail volume in precious metals options on our platform is running at nearly 7x the 2023 baseline. $GLD $SLV $GDX

Citadel Rubner

Speaking as a Southerner, my respect for Minneapolis has rocketed higher over the last couple of months. I didn’t know what that place was built like. This is an important moment in American history, and they’ve met it. Nice doesn’t mean soft.

UBS: The Adobe Digital Price Index, which covers prices of items sold online, rose in January by the most in its 12-year history.

(via @nicktimiraos.bsky.social)

Edit: It isn't futures speculation.

CRB Raw Industrials are running hot (>12% YoY).
When raw-material inflation hits double digits, stock returns tend to suffer & CPI/PPI often follow.
It futures speculation; it’s real-world inputs like burlap, tallow, & scrap metals.
Hard to square with hopes for a 90s-style, AI-driven disinflation.