Thanks to @kevinrothrock.me for quizzing me about my book on the origins of the Ukraine war:
-How do you get into Putin's head?
-Why was there no full-scale invasion in 2014?
-Did Putin kidnap Yanukovych?
-Is there hope for Russia's younger generation?👇
meduza.io/en/episodes/...
“It’s like when you are stabbed with a knife and you aren’t supposed to take the knife out. That is now, a silent time; the knife is still in and the bleeding will come later.”
Five Ukrainian men tell how war changed them forever. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...
Stop complaining about how horrible this winter has been. In Ukraine people are struggling to stay warm indoors. Free link: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/10/w...
"Constructive and productive" is the new "deeply concerned."
The second photo shows the apartment building in which my best Ukrainian friend grew up. It's located in Dobropillya, now a ghost town under Russian attack. He hopes his home will be completely destroyed so that it won’t one day be renovated and inhabited by Russian settlers.
Now that building has been completely rebuilt, part of a Kremlin plan to turn Mariupol into a seaside Potemkin village filled with settlers from Russia. Perversely there's a real estate boom in Mariupol thanks to the unclaimed property of residents who have fled or been killed.
The first photo is of the same building on the cover of my book "Putin's Revenge"—an apartment block that was bombed out in the Russian assault on Mariupol.
Recently I received two photographs from the Donbas—one from the Russian-occupied part, the other from the corner still under Ukrainian control. The stories they tell are revealing:
NEW COMMENTARY | Amid Ukraine’s Battlefield Struggles, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Domestic Legacy Is a Work in Progress
@luciankim.bsky.social explores how Zelenskyy has navigated political challenges at home and how he should lay the groundwork for Ukraine’s future.
www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/europe-c...
Operative sentence is 9 paragraphs into this story: "Some European leaders hinted at lingering concerns that all the diplomatic work with the Americans could be irrelevant if the fundamental disputes between Russia and Ukraine cannot be resolved." www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/w...
According to leak, 4 documents are under discussion:
-agreement between Ukraine, Russia, US, "Europe";
-security "assurances" (not guarantees) for Ukraine;
-US commitments to NATO;
-US-Russia agreement.
Nobody comes out looking good in this scathing analysis: zn.ua/eng/trumps-n...
“There were people who, unfortunately, were deported because they did not receive asylum. These are people who hold opposition views—people who have pro-democratic, pro-European views, and it is a great tragedy.” www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/12/10/a...
Fun fact: The European Union won the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize for "advancing peace, reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe." I guess another reason to hate the EU and want a Nobel Peace Prize. www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace...
First 20 minutes of interview is on Ukraine/Europe. Not surprising but good to hear without filters: www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVV1...
Nothing too new in latest Trump interview:
-Russia big, Ukraine smaller, Europe weak.
-Ukraine should have elections. (Note: Answer to yes/no question.)
-Sea of Azov coast is "seafront," Crimea an east European Florida.
-Zelensky is a salesman (weird insult coming from Trump).
PS: The show goes to Delhi. Both Putin and Modi are trying to flag Trump's attention.
Ok let's talk about where we are with Russia/Ukraine. My latest for Foreign Affairs: www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/amer.... The key thing is understanding American national interests. Should be straightforward but, evidently, it's not.
My opinion on the corruption scandal in Ukraine #Ukraine www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
Translation guide to Kremlin comments on Witkoff trip:
-crisis=war;
-we agreed to continue contacts=no rush;
-these talks were strictly confidential=earlier leak was intentional;
-Witkoff & Kushner promised to go straight back to DC=Europe/Ukraine irrelevant. en.kremlin.ru/events/presi...
Right before the Witkoff-Kushner meeting, Putin spoke to reporters to take a final jab at the Europeans, saying they're the warmongers trying to sabotage Trump's peace efforts.
Then, on the eve of his meeting with Witkoff and Kushner, Putin again put on a uniform (appropriately without insignia) to boast of Russian victories and lambaste the "thieving junta" in Kyiv.
The day the infamous "28-point plan" was delivered to Zelensky, Putin donned a uniform to visit a command post and learn that the Russian army was on an unstoppable roll.
I used to cover Putin as a reporter for Bloomberg. The stagecraft was meticulous—vetted questions, staged encounters and elaborate backdrops. As Trump pushes for a deal, Putin is giving him a show.
Putin keeps saying the same things:
-Hostilities end when Ukrainian troops "leave the territories they occupy";
-Pointless to sign documents with illegitimate Ukrainian leadership;
-World powers need to recognize "certain territories" as Russian.
en.kremlin.ru/events/presi...
How will Yermak's exit affect Ukraine's negotiating position? Maybe not hugely—I hear the Trump administration has welcomed Umerov taking on a lead role as interlocutor this year. The question is what happens if Umerov also has to go. kyivindependent.com/zelenskys-ch...
Often overlooked in Ukraine peace talks is the fundamental difference between the two sides: Zelensky represents the Ukrainian people and must fear their wrath; Putin represents only himself—the difference between a country of citizens and a country of subjects.
Thank you! I think the European/US reaction to the Georgia war very much informed Putin's assumptions when he invaded Crimea. As for the Maidan and Crimean annexation, I devote so much ink to them because they are crucial to understanding why Putin chose all-out war in 2022.
Thanksgiving (Thursday) deadline was meant to focus minds and reflects Trump's rush. In any case, Europeans will have to figure out how to keep funding Ukraine by Christmas.
Putin will wait. Reconquering Ukraine is about Russia's place in the world—and his historical legacy. ⌛️
The fundamental contradiction of this conflict has still not been resolved: Ukrainians require the wherewithal to deter future aggression; the Kremlin will not rest until Ukraine is subordinated (and Zelensky out of office). ⚔️
That's how we got to where we are now. A traditional US administration would have met with the Ukrainians and European allies to come up with a joint position to take to Moscow. It is mind-boggling that the exact opposite has happened. 🤯
