Andy

On mobile you may have to click and hold the "domains" button to make the menu drop down. Other complaints/feedback welcome

About: These plots depict errors in the most recent HREF and time-lagged HRRR ("HRRR-TL") ensemble mean fields, using the most recent RTMA as truth. The HRRR-TL used here consists of the last four hourly runs of the HRRR. RTMA 10-m winds (in kt) are overlaid on all plots for reference. This analysis is experimental; see NWS for official forecasts. Contact: Andy Wade, CIWRO (andy.wade@ou.edu)

Realtime CAM vs. RTMA page was down for a while after the CAM data location changed. It's back! While I was fixing it, I made four regional domains:

wadewx.oucreate.com/rtverif.html

NSSL WRF run for the ages...if it hits. Large spread still in 00Z suite.

Intriguing wind setup in OK tonight if an MCS can emerge. Synoptics and kinematics compatible with a higher-end wind threat, if somewhat limited in longevity/eastward extent.

Great example of the "giant blob of precip locally wet-bulbing the cap away" hypothesis in SW OK

f001

❌ H5 AVA through peak heating
❌ Right exit of big jet streak
❌ Shear 80+ deg off dryline, little residence time
❌ N flow persisting to TX Gulf Coast
❌ 1/5 HREF mems initiating, 0 EPS mems

✅ This is the only reason we keep FV3 around and it is dead set on taking out the entire county

I'm almost ignoring the red and green lines, and looking at the deep stack of blue bars at left in all of them

Problem with diurnal/EET dryline CI in OK seems to be deep subsidence with midlevel AVA 21-00Z. Even uncapped solutions still do not initiate until this flips to cyclonic after dark with cold front crashing in. NAM nest outlier fires earlier by placing dryline much farther west.

Fire wx update: I just shocked myself picking up a cucumber

😵‍💫

Who needs moisture?

Moisture around the afternoon/evening risk area is mostly as expected so far. HRRR running slightly dry in S-C MO ahead of the early CI, but on track upstream to the south. Similar pattern going back to 06Z runs not shown.

DALLAS/LOVE FIELD,TX (DAL) ASOS reports gust of 68 knots (78.3 mph) from WNW @ 1140Z -- KDAL 041140Z 30034G68KT 3/4SM R13L/2800VP6000FT +TSRA BR SQ FEW011 BKN017 OVC023CB 11/10 A2953 RMK AO2 PK WND 29068/1134 WSHFT 1121 TSB10 OCNL LTGICCC ALQDS TS ALQDS MOV NE P0012 T01060100

Everything south of about Hobart is losing the race against the composite outflow/front.

...both models exhibit mid-level weakness in the wind profile. Both my recent simulations & obs work from @toddamurphy.bsky.social suggest that this tips the scale towards more *weakly* tornadic storms. Altogether, this means a LOT may be spinning, but tors might be weak/sporadic (2/2)

Most CAM morphologies and line orientations look funky and disorganized. A few hints of near-sfc stability similar to 11/4/24 below, when the early morning 10# in C OK went quietly.

Still not the kind of kinematics I plan to sleep through though...

Trajectories into the OUN PBL 20Z--07Z, i.e., where to watch near-surface CAM errors this afternoon and evening.