I think it would be better if there were fewer grand claims about how AI is going to revolutionize research and more people trying to make the best use of AI to improve their research, and let’s see what we get.
We won our tariff case!! Yay!! A 6-3 decision. Much more to come later. Here is the link to the decision:
www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...
I think that “You are no longer the smartest type of thing on Earth” is a silly and simplistic sentiment.
Intelligence is not a one dimensional thing and, unlike the essay pretends, we don’t know where this is going.
www.noahpinion.blog/p/you-are-no...
I'm very sad to have learned today that Joe Halpern passed away. Joe was a giant who knew no scientific boundaries. He loved science with a contagious, child-like enthusiasm. He was wonderful and I'm so grateful that I got to learn from him. Thank you Joe 🙏
www.bangsfuneralhome.com/obituaries/j...
This is what ICE does every day. Hunt little kids who are here legally. They get sent to a place called the “baby jail” in Texas. Very little of it ends up on video like this. But it’s routine. And disgusting.
It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.
I am skeptical that, with advanced AI, the sole reason humans will be valuable is human touch (or any other simply statable category).
I think it's likely our insights will still be valuable, and the division of roles between AI and humans will be emergent and is hard to predict.
I greatly admire my colleague Sam but I disagree with this interpretation.
We have to distinguish decision utility, which is non-comparable across people from normative judgements about welfare which do allow interpersonal comparisons.
Economic theory allows us to discuss both.
Rand Paul: "When people watch that video and the government tells them, 'Well, he was assaulting the police officers,' nobody with any objectivity believes that. No American believes he was assaulting the officers. In fact, the opposite appears to be true. So we have to get some rules of the game."
John Thune declines chance to back Noem after Minnesota killing
A bellwether of things to come.
Senator Fetterman calls for Kristi Noem to be fired.
"A grossly incompetent DHS Secretary"
BREAKING: The Border Patrol's Greg Bovino has been ousted from his role of "Commander at Large"—and Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski could be next to lose their jobs, sources tell @nickmiroff.bsky.social www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...
On the execution in Minnesota: Obviously, the individuals involved should be held accountable. But responsibility goes to the top of ICE and CBP, and DHS. Their appropriations come up next week in the senate. Not a cent for DHS without pulling ICE and CBP off the streets, in MN and everywhere else.
Jack Smith: "My fear is that we have seen the rule of law function in our country for so long that many of us have come to take it for granted. The rule of law is not self-executing. It depends on our collective commitment to apply it."
Minnesota: "School officials say the [5-year-old] child was used as bait. They say [ICE] agents made little Liam knock on the door to ask to be let in in order to see if anyone else was home."
Carney: "American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ... "
Two days ago it was Elissa Slotkin. Last week it was Jerome Powell. Before that, Mark Kelly. Weaponizing the justice system against your opponents is an authoritarian tactic.
The only person not being investigated for the shooting of Renee Good is the federal agent who shot her.
Immigration January 9-12, 2026: 42% approve, 58% disapprove July 11-13, 2025: 42% approve, 58% disapprove April 17-24, 2025: 45% approve, 54% disapprove March 6-9, 2025: 51% approve, 48% disapprove Underneath are his ratings from term 1. I'll list a few here: January 9-14, 2021: 36% approve, 61% disapprove January 16-19, 2020: 42% approve, 56% disapprove November 21-24, 2020: 39% approve, 58% disapprove.
And fascinatingly, the CNN poll shows no change in his net support on immigration: -16%, same as it was in July.
That's now several polls showing no meaningful drop in his support on immigration following the shooting of Renee Good. May still be too early, though.
ICE threw a flash bang at a car and it had six kids in it.
All six children are in the hospital now.
Senator Says Prosecutors Are Investigating Her After Video About Illegal Orders www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/u...
Cutting off funding to almost all opposition-controlled states is an act of dictatorship.
It is outrageous and illegal.
That is our money, allocated to the states by our Congress, under our laws.
Lawless, dictatorial rampage will come to harm all Conservative and Liberal Americans.
Read this story and decide if this is the America you want to live in.
ICE saw a Latino man driving a car. Chased him down and rammed him. Just because he wasn’t white.
He was just a guy - an American citizen - driving to the auto shop.
This administration is terrible and unpopular.
Let’s not copy them.
I’m no Columbo, so I could be way off here, but don’t you usually investigate the killer and not the victim in a potential murder?
I do not think he is doing these things to distract from the Epstein files.
Self parody
He should have stepped down under political fire to…protect the institution’s ability to resist political attack
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Anticipation
#econsky #philosophy
marketdesigner.blogspot.com/2026/01/what...
The typical centrist is not like this. Centrists more typically think the left bears some responsibility for the current situation, while the right is more culpable and in many cases reprehensible.
esme murphy @esmemurphy Unprecedented - @AGEllison & Hennepin Co Attorney announce separate investigation into Renee Good's killing after Feds kick Mn out of their investigation MANHEPIN COUNTS OFFICE OF THE HENNEPIN COUNTY ATTORNEY MARY F. MORIARTY COUNTY ATTORNEY For immediate release: Jan. 9, 2026 Media contact: daniel.borgertpoepping@hennepin.us Hennepin County Attorney's Office and Minnesota Attorney General's office announces effort to collect and preserve evidence to support investigation The Hennepin County Attorney's Office (HCAO) and Minnesota Attorney General'S Office (MNAGO) announced a joint effort to collect and preserve evidence to support investigation into the killing of Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis. After the FBI rescinded its cooperation agreement with the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, the HCAO and the MNAGO were in constant contact to determine a path forward that ensured necessary transparency for Minnesotans. "Earlier this week, our community witnessed a horrific event on our streets. Some saw it ir person and many more have seen it circulating online," Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty said. "I have been on the phone and in meetings with law enforcement, justice leaders and elected officials, discussing ways to ensure a thorough and transparent investigation can occur and be shared with our office." Residents will be able to submit evidence via this QR code on the next page or through. link, which will be posted on social media and on our website. The most important ele of this situation is collecting and preserving the maximum amount
AMEPIN COUAD MARY F. MORIARTY COUNTY ATTORNEY OFFICE OF THE HE COUNTY ATTORTE ATTORNEY For immediate release: Jan. 9, 2026 Media contact: daniel.borgertpoepping@hennepin.us Hennepin County Attorney's Office and Minnesota Attorney General's Office announces effort to collect and preserve evidence to support investigation The Hennepin County Attorney's Office (HCAO) and Minnesota Attorney General's Office (MNAGO) announced a joint effort to collect and preserve evidence to support investigation into the killing of Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis. After the FBI rescinded its cooperation agreement with the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, the HCAO and the MNAGO were in constant contact to determine a path forward that ensured necessary transparency for Minnesotans. "Earlier this week, our community witnessed a horrific event on our streets. Some saw it ir person and many more have seen it circulating online," Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty said. "I have been on the phone and in meetings with law enforcement, justice leaders and elected officials, discussing ways to ensure a thorough and transparent investigation can occur and be shared with our office." Residents will be able to submit evidence via this QR code on the next page or through link, which will be posted on social media and on our website. The most important ele of this situation is collecting and preserving the maximum amount of evidence so a ca file can be as complete as possible.
Via WCCO reporter Esme Murphy on X:
"Unprecedented - @ag.state.mn.us
& Hennepin Co Attorney announce separate investigation into Renee Good’s killing after Feds kick Mn out of their investigation"
x.com/esmemurphy/s...
