Exactly. Post-WW2, the U.S. has been relatively unconstrained in using airpower to rain down destruction, everything short of nuclear weapons. They have often been constrained by a reluctance to use ground troops.
Which is exactly the same constraints that the Trump admin is operating under!
Incredibly illuminating to compare income and hours worked across countries and states for ***the bottom 95% of earners only***. The typical Belgian earns as much as the typical Californian but works about 24% less
via sethackerman.substack.com
It also won't split MAGA because MAGA Republicans are *more* hawkish on FP issues than other Americans, not less. I should really write a longer piece on it...it's an oddly persistent mischaracterization of their FP attitudes.
A bar chart showing results to the following survey question: Based on what you know, how likely is it that US military action against Iran will spark a broader regional war? Likely: 71% overall, 65% Republicans, 84% Democrats, 68% Independents Unlikely: 25% overall, 33% Republicans, 16% Democrats, 26% Independents From a Chicago Council on Global Affairs/Ipsos poll fielded February 27-March 1, 2026, among a random national sample of 1,018 adults.
New @global-affairs.bsky.social /@ipsosus.bsky.social poll finds that most Americans—including majorities across party lines—see US strikes on Iran as likely leading to a wider regional war.
Full analysis with my colleagues @roguepollster.bsky.social and Lama El Baz: bit.ly/4b1tg2N
That high Republican DK rate on troops is interesting - I don't suppose you have a large enough sample to look at differential DK response rates by the party-attention combo?
The attention crosstabs in our Iran poll are kind of interesting measurement of how attention corresponds to strength of opinion/likelihood of choosing DK when offered
Those following more closely are 26 pts likelier than those not to express strong opinion
www.documentcloud.org/documents/27...
For the Germans, Prostmasters
New polling out now from @global-affairs.bsky.social / @ipsosus.bsky.social, in the field when US military operations against Iran began, finds no differences pre/post in support for strikes on Iran’s nuclear programs—and widespread fears of sparking a wider regional war.
https://bit.ly/4b1tg2N
The "rally-around-the-flag" effect is not some law of physics that works automatically. It largely seems to happen because 1) the opposition party stops criticizing the president or the military operation, 2) partially as a consequence, the mass media is flooded with pro-government messages. /1
Yet again:
Easy to say now Iran should have followed the North Korea example and weaponized vice taking the latency/threshold path.
But there was no easy button to weaponization for Iran. (1/6)
IT’S OUR TIME. EVERYBODY CELEBRATE THE WEDDING THIS MOMENT CREATED www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPCJ...
The latest from YouGov (n~2.6k). Key updates from yesterday's data:
The killing of Khamenei: Approve +9
US now better off/worse off: Better off +31
How do you think Iranians feel about attack: "Support it" +9
Who should decide Iran's future: The Iranian people +62
today.yougov.com/topics/overv...
The hot in the west was hotter than the cold in the east was cold.
#climatechange
Most striking to me: the lower level of Republican support. This is a Republican president taking military action against a country most Republicans dislike and see as a threat — and yet just 69% support it? Highlights the complete absence of any attempt to rally the public in advance of the war.
This is consistent with what one hears from serious analysts all around. The US negotiating team, led by two New York real estate developers with a reputation for incompetence at that and no serious diplomats or nuclear experts, were a bunch of ignorant pikers incapable of engaging in serious talks.
NEW: The Trump administration has delayed arms sales to Taiwan valued at $13 billion that had been approved by lawmakers. US officials say Trump wants to ensure a smooth summit in April with Xi. And the Iran war will cut into US military resources for Asia. Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/u...
The latest from YouGov (n ~ 1.6k adults):
Approval of Iran strikes: -10
Approval of Trump's handling of Iran: -15
Should Congress approve wars first: Yes +31
Will intervention make Iran better/worse off: Worse off +20
yougov.com/en-us/search...
Quick reactions after learning that no, nobody could stop him. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m... 1/
NASA just completely overhauled its lunar program, functionally admitting what I reported a while back: that China is in position to beat the United States back to the Moon, and declare an end to a century of American technical and scientific supremacy.
www.wired.com/story/china-...
Whoa. The Rational Public (Page & Shapiro 1992) argues that aggregate public opinion responds reasonably to the information it receives. Big changes are rare unless major new information arises—& there's nothing newer than a war.
You'll rarely see a political science theory so clearly illustrated.
@ispsyale.bsky.social is hiring an Executive Director for its Democratic Innovations Program. Very good pay for a super interesting job at a place doing cutting edge research on this and many other topics.
careers.yale.edu/us/en/job/YU...
Note to politicians trying to co-opt the bigoted voters who didn't vote for them: You're not going to out-bigot the bigoted politicians they voted for, you're just going to lose the non-bigots who don't like bigotry.
You need to make salient a *different* axis of competition
Wow. Ellie Aghayeva — the Columbia student detained by ICE this morning — has been released and posted this on her Instagram.
Comes after NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani expressed his concern on the arrest to Trump in a meeting just earlier.
The latest from @ymriofficial.bsky.social : What are young men seeing about Epstein on Reddit?
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com/p/what-are-y...
Delighted to show off some of YMRI's new social listening tools, with a case example of what young mens' subreddits are saying about Epstein
Sobering statistics for ABDs and TT. 67% of ABDs didn't get placed. Placement was only 38% TT.
This is *such* a cool paper
