@lanoszka
Associate professor at the University of Waterloo (Canada); visiting professor at the College of Europe in Natolin (Poland); and author of Military Alliances in the Twenty-First Century (Polity, 2022). www.alexlanoszka.com
"When Time magazine this week asked DJT about the threat to the US homeland, he said, “I guess” Americans should be worried. “We plan for it. But yeah, you know, we expect some things. Like I said, some people will die. When you go to war, some people will die.”" www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
"Yet nuclear cooperation alone will not resolve Europe’s deterrence challenge. The credibility of a more European deterrence posture will depend on Europe’s ability to manage escalation below the nuclear threshold ..." www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
Russia lost more territory than it gained in February for the first time since Ukraine's failed counteroffensive in 2023, according to independent Finnish open-source intelligence collective Black Bird Group.
As the Dow Jones falls over 1000 points this morning, it is important to be petty and to remember that someone published this analysis just yesterday: "U.S. stocks might be more insulated from a conflict in Iran than bearish investors had expected."
www.marketwatch.com/story/as-glo...
"French President Emmanuel Macron announced Monday that France will increase its nuclear arsenal and, for the first time, allow the temporary deployment of its nuclear-armed aircraft to allied countries ..." apnews.com/article/fran...
"The common thread connecting these operations is not escalation, but political opportunism: applying force only where the political and military costs appear low, in pursuit of quick wins that serve a limited foreign policy agenda.” @lanoszka.bsky.social
Gen. Hayden likened air strikes to casual sex: they seem to offer gratification with little commitment. In our latest, Balkan, Richard, and I argue that the Trump admin's record of using military force suggests it likes gratification and is averse to commitment.
nationalpost.com/opinion/opin...
"US officials and experts have raised concerns that Tomahawk stockpiles are being drained after their use against targets in Nigeria, Yemen, Iran, and now Iran again — risking that the US might not have enough on hand should it go to war with an adversary like China." www.yahoo.com/news/article...
But the Trump administration's own national security documents told me that regime change was no longer a foreign policy goal and that the Middle East would receive much less priority than before. www.bbc.com/news/article...
SCOTUS "has dealt a blow to Trump’s economic agenda, saying he exceeded his authority in using a 1977 law to justify a large swath of his tariffs. Yet the decision does not mean that Trump is now entirely unable to slap tariffs on other countries’ products." www.marketwatch.com/story/suprem...
For this month's edition of Policy Forum Politique (RAS/NSA), we asked Balkan Devlen, Yuxi Liu, Pascale Massot, and Stephen Nagy for their thoughts on how Canada should go about managing its diplomatic and economic relationship with China in 2026.
ras-nsa.ca/how-should-c...
"Ceasefires are no longer treated primarily as bridges to political settlement. They function instead as instruments of escalation management: mechanisms to contain risk, limit spillover, and restore short-term stability ..." warontherocks.com/2026/02/paus...
"Suspected attacks on northern Italy's railway network have led to severe travel disruption in the region ... The Ministry of Transport called the incidents an act of "serious sabotage", which they said mirrored vandalism during the Paris Olympics in 2024." www.bbc.com/news/article...
The Washington Post dies in daylight.
To add to what Richard wrote here about the demerits of a mixed fighter fleet, I would point out that no ally or partner that Canada has--aside from Sweden--wants us to renege on a procurement contract and settle for a lesser capability.
ca.news.yahoo.com/richard-shim...
I am no dove or arms control enthusiast, but the answer I gave to the question asked in this news report is a simple no. globalnews.ca/news/1162522...
Subtitle: Additional benefits would include 20,000 jobs in the Maritimes.
Someone should write an op-ed titled 'Why Canada needs the Gripen to make its future nuclear deterrent against the United States credible'. It will get published somewhere.
Former chief of the Defence Staff Wayne Eyre suggested that Canada should keep the nuclear weapons option open. Yet, despite everything happening with the US these days, we should expect little allied nuclear proliferation in the foreseeable future despite such talk. substack.com/home/post/p-...
Last week, the Globe and Mail reported that parts of the Canadian Armed Forces have studied insurgency in the very unlikely event that a forcible seizure of Canada takes place. I tackle this issue in my latest Substack essay. alanoszka.substack.com/publish/post...
It's almost as if the authors didn't bother with trying to acquire any knowledge before writing.
These authors perform the impressive feat of writing about Greenland without even one mention of Denmark. How can prudence be so ignorant? www.cato.org/commentary/t...
It's unclear at this point that the United States would be able to make its bases in Greenland 'sovereign', as what British bases in Cyprus are. I suspect that Copenhagen would have been more amenable had Trump pursued a more tactful approach. Bad diplomacy is costly.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/22/w...
I think that's as much of a climb down you're going to get from him. He never admits he is wrong, and I agree that his credibility is shot. Thankfully, there are other reasons beyond his rhetoric and word choices to be skeptical about the use of force in this case.
The clause "we will remember" suggests resentment more than it does the use of military force.
Still, Trump inflicted much harm on both himself and the United States' international position in handling this matter in the way that he has. He made himself appear much more unhinged, and any talk of annexation gives succor to U.S. adversaries. He has exhausted the forbearance of many allies.
I thus stand by the arguments I made earlier this month. Even before polls indicated single digit support for Trump on this issue, Congressional and military support was largely absent. Trump cut himself a lonely figure. Scholarly research added to my doubts.
alanoszka.substack.com/p/the-noise-...
"President Donald Trump ruled out military force to acquire Greenland in his remarks to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday."
I can't say that I'm surprised. The probabillity of military force was lower than what many pundits have assessed.
www.politico.com/news/2026/01...
Very cool database of all the tariffs that the Second Trump administration has implemented or threatened, with information on all the exemptions made and countermeasures taken. www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2026/01/18/t...
Carney accepting in principle to the 'Board of Peace' is a major own goal, but it seems part of a broader pattern where his geopolitical sense is at best questionable. A 'wait-and-see' approach would have been better. There is very little upside to this association.
www.politico.com/news/2026/01...