Jim Barrineau

Odds that the Fed stays put at the June meeting have gone from 37% to over 71% in a month.

Core PCE creeps up over 3%. Obviously not yet pricing in war affects. Incoming Fed chair Warsh will be challenged to pretend we need rate cuts, and the market is pricing in that the rest of the board won’t buy it.

Anthropic’s Pentagon Battle Matters to Every Business The designation of the artificial-intelligence company as a supply-chain risk puts every business at the mercy of President Trump’s political priorities.

Greg Ip continues to write hard hitting, reality based articles for WSJ. If businesses get punished for refusing to bend the knee to Trump, you don't really live in a capitalist system.
www.wsj.com/business/ant...

Here is the current line up of editorials on the Wall Street Journal web page.

It is indistinguishable from what North Korean media would be producing in a similar situation.

Hopefully this chart will distract you from the higher prices you are paying because of tariffs.

Bonds have been a terrible defensive move for portfolios looking to avoid Iran war volatility.

The problem is that bonds had rallied strongly to start the year, and were priced for perfection in anticipation of multiple Fed rate cuts beginning mid-year. Now all of that is out the window.

When do the professional wrestlers come for their seminar?

Being absolutely sure something is going to happen is a great way to lose all your money. That’s why Charlie G is a reporter and not an investor

Is it just my wild optimism or are reporters actually growing a spine in pushing back on lies? Thinking about the obvious lies on the school bombing in Iran

Literally has no idea what he is talking about. Maybe whiskey Pete Hegseth can show him a map of the strait

Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index: Financial conditions are the tightest since late August of last year.

Conditions have been loosening almost nonstop since 2022—thus the three great years of equity returns from 2023-2025.

This creates a real headwind for any rally.

It would be great reporting if he would take a ride in that tanker

I always appreciate Captain Obvious weighing in on the events of the day

Americans Are Now a Target in Trump’s Immigration Crackdown A WSJ investigation tracked the U.S. citizens caught in the crosshairs of an aggressive federal campaign to detain and demonize dissenters.

Extraordinary WSJ article on trampling of citizens rights to witness government actions.
The paper continues to do great reporting on Trump corruption, ICE violence, and the assault against democratic norms.
The editorial page works just as hard to soft pedal the truth.
www.wsj.com/us-news/immi...

Follow a Foundation Investing Short read--transparent performance and market bullets

What Might a Good Outcome Look Like?
open.substack.com/pub/barrinea...

The odds that rates stay the same in the June meeting (the first for the new chair) have gone from 25% to 67% in a month. The market thinks that even a new chair eager to please Trump can't get colleagues to cut rates with gasoline prices soaring and a war going on.

Iran is trying to neutralize US bases located in the region by promising not to attack unless attacked upon. Its strategic thinking, which is not a thing in the US

Wow

He’s dedicating himself fervently to this mission until Trump sees enough gas prices, inflation, and polls and then they will dedicate themselves to declaring victory

As Trump would probably tell you, really nobody knows more about Islam than Trump, so why not?

Tommy Tuberville wants a word on that dumbest title..

If you are worried about stocks and their reaction to the Iran war, you are looking at the wrong asset class.
Watch bonds.
They are pricing: energy spikes, food spikes, then second order effects. Market is pricing out rate cuts for H1. Eventually bond reaction will start to effect stock reaction.

Coal prices jump as utilities seek alternative to gas Energy crisis sparked by war in Iran has raised prospect of restarting mothballed coal power plants

The limiting factor to this war might not be missiles, but the inflationary consequences the administration clearly had no planning for.

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Fertiliser disruption from Iran conflict prompts global food shortage warnings Prices have jumped and exports been hit as war puts pressure on one of the world’s largest producers

Yet another unintended consequence of a war with little planning or foresight.

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Our latest Middle Eastern adventure has added nearly 50 cents to the average price of gasoline in the US, which has been a big contributor to short-circuiting the bond rally YTD as rate cut hopes fade.

Financial conditions tightening. The last time we saw a consistent tightening trend here was January-April of 2025, which saw the sharp drop in the S&P.

Record Numbers of Workers Are Raiding Their 401(k) Savings A divergent economy has given people record retirement savings and more need to dig into them.

Trump economy continues to set records!!

www.wsj.com/personal-fin...

Stellar piece!

The new S&P report on how active managers fared across asset classes in beating their index is out (SPIVA).

Results in the biggest category are….not great.

Kevin Warsh is going to be arguing for rate cuts with PCE north of 3% because that’s the mandate. So you are going to hear some really elastic definitions of how and when we get back to 2% “target”.