Joe Allen

Fewer births in Wales than at any time since 1840.

Implications seem under-discussed in our current political debates.

The incredible loneliness of a one-man standing ovation at a Reform manifesto launch.

Demonstration of relative financial strength of Plaid v Reform.

Reform's daily income is roughly what Plaid make in an entire quarter.

"Yes, unfortunately our sources tell us it's going to be a total ban on Nandos refills. Now, on to the WRU..."

Data here should be central to Welsh election debates. Upsets a lot of clichés about our position.

> Wales gets 25% more UK funding per person than England.
> No up-to-date estimates on relative need. But good chance needs-based reassement would = *less* money for Wales.

The Narrow Pipeline to the Senedd There's a persistent accusation that the working backgrounds of our politicians in Wales are too narrow and unrepresentative of the wider country. That accusation is basically correct.

I wrote about the data on candidate working backgrounds here⬇️

josephallen1.substack.com/p/the-narrow...

BBC Radio Wales - Sunday Supplement, Andrew, Sudan, politicians' jobs, NHS vision & Muslim Wales Political news, discussions and analysis, plus a review of the Sunday papers.

I went on Radio Wales this morning to talk about why it's not ideal to have 1 in 4 Senedd candidates coming from the 0.1% of the Welsh workforce that already work in politics.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...

Watching the figure skating on TNT.

Me: "Wow, that's incredible. Looks faultless."

Commentators: "Ah unfortunately that's total shit. They'll be distraught and full of self-loathing. And rightly so."

The cost comparison studies between undergrounding and pylons include lifetime maintenance costs. Broadly a 5x difference.

Underground cables have few maintenance incidents but the costs involved a vastly higher (for obvious reasons).

Or at least say who the good committee performers are so that people can tell who you're criticising by omission.

We can't continue referencing how Wales is "the land of the pulled punch" while simultaneously still pulling our punches.

Really good listen on the Welsh aversion to scrutiny.

Particularly good on weakness of Senedd committee chairs.

But if you're going to say "a lot of MSs just read the questions they're given in committees & can't follow up" then you've got to start naming names at some point.

Compare graduates in Wales with those in Scotland and SE England

Swyddi proffesiynol wedi’u gorgynrychioli ymhlith ymgeiswyr etholiad y Senedd Mae’r ymchwilydd Joe Allen yn pwysleisio bod cael gormod o gynrychiolaeth gan un dosbarth cymdeithasol yn medru arwain at feddylfryd grŵp

Swyddi proffesiynol wedi’u gorgynrychioli ymhlith ymgeiswyr etholiad y Senedd

Mae’r ymchwilydd Joe Allen yn pwysleisio bod cael gormod o gynrychiolaeth gan un dosbarth cymdeithasol yn medru arwain at feddylfryd grŵp #gwleidyddiaeth

✍️ Efan Meilir Owen

Pylon politics very tangled in Wales. Plaid promising a ban; Greens less hard line.

Greens' leader @anthonyslaughter.bsky.social made case well recently:

"We have to be honest with people. If we tell every community they can have cables underground...we, as politicians, know that's not true."

"Paid a gofyn i fi, reit. I don't want to swear on the telly."

This is our version of Brenda from Bristol.

University course enrolment changes over last 10 years:

> Medicine, dentistry, physical sciences and engineering all down in Wales while growing across the UK.

There are lots of caveats to this data (see full write up). There are plenty of excellent candidates from political working backgrounds.

But I think the overall impact of a narrow political class is damaging for Wales and for devolution. (3/3)

josephallen1.substack.com/p/the-narrow...

Public and third sectors are over-represented in the candidate lists. Private sector under-represented.

Only 5% of candidates are standing from manual, industrial and service occupations.

Working backgrounds of the centre-left parties' candidates are strikingly similar. (2/3)

What jobs are Senedd candidates doing before they run for election?

I looked into the details for 173 declared candidates.

People already working in Welsh politics are 1 in 4 of the candidates - despite only being maybe 0.1% of the Welsh workforce. (1/3)

josephallen1.substack.com/p/the-narrow...

If you want to understand the financial mismatch between the top two parties contesting the Senedd election:

- Reform got £9m in Q3 from one bloke in Thailand.
- Plaid have received about £3.5m in total since reporting began in 2001.

Furthermore, a huge vindication for Mark Drakeford here, on two fronts:
1) UK Labour have been salivating at the prospect of a devastating Welsh Labour loss in the new PR list system coming in next year, so they can create a cautionary tale about PR and further argue the merits of FPTP. Well… (1/6)

The crumbling seaside palaces at the centre of Britain’s asylum crisis [FREE TO READ] How one hotelier built an empire from beloved community assets — and a government struggling to cope with a surge in migration

FT mag piece from me: Spent a long time looking into the Britannia hotel chain, beneficiaries of a vast amount of taxpayer money via the asylum system

on.ft.com/47HEE46

Hard to disagree with ex-Plaid MP Cynog Dafis' assessment of the party's approach to energy policy.

"...loitering in its historic comfort zone of easy opposition."

nation.cymru/news/plaid-c...

Just read the second part and it's much worse.

I am writing a policy pamphlet. Here are all the ways to demonstrate I don't really have a policy answer, that I need to avoid:

a. You call for a "national conversation or debate"
b. You suggest that what is needed is “a change in culture”
1/

The best album is, of course, Up. But no one wants to face up to this.

Data is from London, but a useful insight for the never-ending argument in Cardiff about holding gigs in public parks.

2,430 Romanians in Wales voted in their presidential election at polling stations in Swansea and Cardiff yesterday.

And (thanks to Romania's excellent election website) we can see that they favoured the defeated populist candidate George Simion (53%-47%).