I wrote this in December on why/how football on UK TV became so expensive and disjointed
06.03.2026 18:47
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I wrote this in December on why/how football on UK TV became so expensive and disjointed
Congrats (almost!)
NEW: After Gorton & Denton, how should we understand the threat to Labour's left?
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out with @38degrees.bsky.social on 'progressive defectors' - Lab 2024 switchers to Greens, Plaid, SNP, Lib Dems.
Who are they, who are they not & what's moving them? 🧵
I never thought I'd ever have a supervision meeting whist one of my supervisors has half way across the Hudson River in a kayak, but I can confirm that it happened haha
A decision tree guide to political analysis for the cynical
A decision tree guide to political analysis for the cynical
Great to speak with @meganekenyon.bsky.social of @newstatesman1913.bsky.social on location about the result in Gorton and Denton, including the role of party blocs!
Clipped my bit below, but you can watch the whole video here (bonus, there is a cat!):
youtu.be/dUh_1XuAg-g?...
Eluned Morgan pledges to "end homelessness in Wales by 2034".
This will seemingly replace their previous 2021 plan to "end homelessness by 2026".
I still think Con would have lost in 2024 anyway due to inflation/partygate/corruption/NHS waiting lists etc. driving away swing voters
But massive legal migration rules liberalisation + channel boats not being stopped made it existential because it meant they lost right bloc too
If anything Reform voters would have been easier for Cons to win back than Labour winning Greens back is now.
Con-Reform switchers had one salient demand (make migration go down)
Lab-Green switchers have many more / much wider policy demands + more abstract demands (eg "fairness" and "equality")
It's not clear how someone could hold both of these opinions at same time (I know you don't) and still be coherent
I was more annoyed at asymmetry between analysis offered for how to win such voters back.
I agree with second of these below... BUT I agree with it applied to both Con/Ref (when Cons were in government) and now with Lab/Green
(As long as it means actual outcome changes not just rhetorical changes)
Sorry I think my initial post was too snarky/unclear
I actually do think (in government) Tories/Labour could have / can win voters back from party on same ideological side whose values core voters like – IF they broadly deliver on what those voters want / care about (eg getting Brexit done in 2019)
Yeah but the same on delivery was true of the Conservatives. RW voters want:
- low, controlled migration
- tax burden not increased
- petty crime not going unsolved/uninvestigated
They delivered none of that 2019-24, so rhetoric and promises became meaningless to stop rise of Reform
tbf they also have themselves to blame for the sudden appearance of competition on their right.
"I can't believe a right-wing populist challenger is overtaking us after we let immigration reach almost 1 million!"
100%
A median voter strategy is always the best strategy... as long as you have an accurate picture of who the median voter is!
An apolitical (or apartisan) provisional lower-middle class voter who just wants a nice life
I'm being deliberately provocative, but it's been weird to see people who have spent the last 10 years saying "the Conservatives can't out-Reform Reform" now saying "it's imperative for Labour to move left on migration/EU/welfare/tax/Gaza to win back Green switchers"
Wasn't the Conservatives “chasing voters from party on same side ideologically whose values your core voters like” been the big Bluseky academic consensus of a bad strategy in the last 10 years?
Why would outcome be different if Labour does the same for the Greens?
Both are true. The right are clearly learning to break tactically, but do is the left bloc. I would say a 9pt swing needs to be tested against a more unified left bloc vote - gains for sure, but how much?
Is it:
a) "hahaha Reform lost and the Conservatives lost their deposit hahaha"
or
b) The "right bloc" vote share was up 9pp on 2024 in a very unfriendly constituency and the Conservatives losing their deposit shows the right are learning how to tactically vote
100% agree
This is such a huge issue for them and I wrote this back in December about how big of a deal I thought anti-Labour tactical voting (from both swing and progressive voters) would be in 2026
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/two-voting...
I wrote this back in December about how big of a deal I thought anti-Labour tactical voting would be in 2026
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/two-voting...
I wrote this back in December about how big of a deal I thought anti-Labour tactical voting would be in 2026
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/two-voting...
Me in the D.Tel today www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/02...
😔
They should be paying people to watch at the minute!
Nick Vivyan, Chris Hanretty (@chanret.bsky.social) and I have a new book out: “Idiosyncratic Issue Opinion and Political Choice”. The core of the book is making the argument that citizens’ views about political issues neither reduce to an ideological orientation nor to a lack of substance. (1/10)
Lib Dem voters sat in middle (surprise!) when it came to attitudes towards economic growth when I looked at this
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/what-do-th...
Take your mind off the news by reading about a lighter subject... right-wing culture warriors!
Why I think right-wing parties winning elections didn't mean they won culture war, using quotes/lyrics:
- Daft Punk
- Darth Vader
- Wicked Witch of the West
- Groundskeeper Willie
- Wet Leg
- Palpatine
