Stéphane Taillat

All the polls on the U.S. war in Iran so far According to a simple average of new high-quality surveys, 38% of Americans approve and 49% disapprove of U.S. military action in Iran. When ignoring "don't know" respondents, 56% disapprove

All the polls on the U.S. war in Iran so far
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
"Trump starts where Iraq and Vietnam ended"

"A professional military will be better at winning wars of necessity, which is why it is important to have one if you can afford it. But the same professional forces can also be employed in stupid wars of choice."

Really, really worth a read
Thank you Jon!

A really good piece arguing that recent U.S. mil. setbacks aren’t isolated mistakes but signs of deeper institutional decay. Improvised operation, driven by impulsive pol. decision-making, combined with growing politicization of the officer corps (experienced officers pushed out, loyalists promoted)

The Rot Is Real And There Is More To It The Atlantic Piece Just Scratched The Surface

Just sent out a free piece to expand on my article in @theatlantic.com yesterday. The signs of rot in US military and diplomatic capabilities are real and even more extensive than I could say in that article. Here are more-and a gift link to the original article. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Sortie en avril dans la collection "Que Sais-Je?" de mon dernier ouvrage. Il rassemble et synthétise les 15 années de recherche conduites sur la conflictualité numérique et les politiques/stratégies de cybersécurité et de cyberdéfense

Sortie en avril dans la collection "Que Sais-Je?" de mon dernier ouvrage. Il rassemble et synthétise les 15 années de recherche conduites sur la conflictualité numérique et les politiques/stratégies de cybersécurité et de cyberdéfense

Il y a toujours un vieux tweet de Trump à ressortir.

So Is Trump Gonna Bomb Iran Again? And to what end?

I don’t know if Trump is gonna bomb Iran again, but I do know this would be a war of choice, not of necessity. open.substack.com/pub/danieldr...

A few thoughts on possible US-Iran conflict (1/11):

#Lecturestrat @staillat.bsky.social, De la cybersécurité en Amérique. Puissance et vulnérabilité à l'ère numérique, paru dans DSI n°177.

Opinion | This Theory Explains Trump’s Baffling Foreign Policy

1/From Greenland to Venezuela to tariffs, Trump foreign policy baffles leaders and readers. Why? Because it is not about national interest but those of insider elites. To understand and manage, you have to name it: what @segoddard.bsky.social and I call neo-royalism.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/26/o...

I think @dandrezner.bsky.social and @profsaunders.bsky.social are two of the best analysts of Trump and their Foreign Affairs piece is predictably worth reading on the anarchy being unleashed - "nasty, brutish and shortsighted"

www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Le problème c’est Risk. Le Groenland est le truc à avoir dans Risk pour gagner.

« Fiction et imaginaire de la cyber guerre aux États-Unis », @staillat.bsky.social (@univ-paris8.fr) @irsem.bsky.social @cairninfo.bsky.social shs.cairn.info/revue-les-ch...

Après le raid US sur Caracas, #LeCollimateur examine les effets stratégiques de ce geste quant aux appétits US sur le Groenland & les leviers dont disposent les Européens pour y faire face avec @rikefranke.bsky.social & @taravarma.bsky.social
À retrouver sur #LeRubicon
lerubicon.org/collimateur-...

Fully funded (and salaried!) PhD positions to study the impact of AI and autonomous systems for strategic and military affairs in Stockholm! Deadline for applications on 6 January!

Death by a thousand bytes? Assessing the strategic effects of wiper attacks Wipers, pieces of malware specifically designed to destroy data on a computer system, have become an increasingly significant tool of cyberwarfare. Yet, much uncertainty remains with regard to thei...

"What does cyber really achieve, strategically?" is a recurring question in the cyberwarfare debate. In this article for the Journal of Cyber Policy, I try to tackle it focusing on one of the most dreaded cyber weapons: Wipers. A few highlights from this study...🧵 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Trump vs. Venezuela: Scenarios for an Impending War The United States strikes ships linked to drug trafficking in the Caribbean Sea, announcing a possible military intervention in Venezuela. Analysis by Jonathan Guiffard.

Friends & colleagues in 🇺🇸, 🇬🇧 and english-speaking places, I am happy to share my analysis on the current 🇺🇸 military buildup against Venezuela.

Looking at the ideological foundations, but also at the military scenario we can expect. Share if you enjoy ☕ ! 🤓

www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressio...

Appel à contribution📢

Pour la revue Etudes Françaises de Renseignement et de Cyber (EFRC), nous préparons un dossier sur "Puissance et vulnérabilité des Etats-Unis dans le cyberespace" avec @staillat.bsky.social

Envoyez vos propositions avant le 02/11
(détails 👇)

www.etudesfrc.com/_files/ugd/2...

Ah oui, on a essayé de dire des trucs :-)

Russell Vought, Trump’s Shadow President From the wholesale gutting of federal agencies to the ongoing government shutdown, Russell Vought has drawn the road map for Trump’s second term. Vought has consolidated power to an extent that inside...

A lire pour comprendre la présidence Trump 2, le DOGE et les conséquences possibles du shutdown: le portrait de Russell Vought, directeur de l'Office of Management and Budget de la Maison-Blanche par @propublica.org 👇

Revealed: Group 78, the secret US task force that fights cybercriminals When the FBI presented 'Group 78' to European counterparts in November 2024, some officials were shocked. They expressed particular concerns about the integrity of their investigations.

Scoop: meet Group 78, a secret FBI task force aimed at making the lives of Russian cyber thugs impossible, using possibly illegal methods and risking the derailment of European investigations along the way. (With @flrnd.bsky.social @kaibiermann.bsky.social) Thread ⤵️

La paix, chez Trump, c'est d'abord un produit dérivé.

L'IA aujourd'hui, c'est comme l'amiante hier. On en met partout, avec gourmandise. On consacrera demain des sommes folles et des efforts infinis pour dépolluer l'espace informationnel.

(avec la participation de @jnocetti.bsky.social , @paulcharon.bsky.social entre autres)
Il rassemble les contributions de deux événements scientifiques organisés en février et avril 2023 à Nancy et à Rennes

📢Publication📢
Sortie le 9 octobre de "La guerre hybride: entre perte de repères et adaptation" aux Presses Universitaires de Rennes 👇
pur-editions.fr/product/1025...
Codirigé avec @didierdanet.bsky.social , Sandrine Turgis et Mélanie Dubuy

📢Appel à contribution📢
Pour son numéro 7, la revue Etudes Françaises de Renseignement et de Cyber (EFRC) propose un dossier sur "Puissance et vulnérabilité des Etats-Unis dans le cyberespace" sous la coordination de @joeguiffard.bsky.social & moi-même
(texte de l'appel et calendrier)👇

CRESTRICTED] ORIENTATION FACT SHEET 64 WAR DEPARTMENT-WASHINGTON 25, D. C. • 24 March 1945 FASCISM! Note For This Week's Discussion: Fascism is not the easiest thing to identify and analyze; nor, once in power, is it easy to destroy. It is important for our future and that of the world that as many of us as possible understand the causes and practices of fascism, in order to combat it. Points to stress are: (1) Fascism is more apt to come to power at a time of economic crisis; (2) fascism inevitably leads to war; (3) it can come to any country; (4) we can best combat it by making our democracy work.

In March of 1945, the US Army issued this "fact sheet" to guide conversations with soldiers on the topic of fascism, paying particular attention to the ongoing threat that domestic fascist movements posed to the US. Their analysis of what a homegrown US fascism would look like is interesting.

Aurait-on la possibilité d'échanger en MP? Je souhaiterais vous demander qqch pour lui?
Je vous remercie par avance

Trump II, le retour de la présidence impériale YouTube video by Le Collimateur

L’excellent @corentinsellin.bsky.social chez le non moins excellent @alexjubelin.bsky.social c’est à ne pas manquer (si seulement c’était pour parler NFL et pas de cette pourriture fasciste de Trump!)

youtu.be/Q28n9_735ak?...