Lindsay P Cohn

Map showing Dahieh in red and orange

The IDF just ordered the forced evacuation of *all of Dahieh* a day after ordering the forced evacuation of all of South Lebanon.

Israel is taking advantage of the focus on Iran to destroy Lebanon

guessing we’re tapping the strategic petroleum reserve again even though it’s down ~50% from pre-Russian invasion levels and oil is $70 a barrel. guys it’s supposed to be for emergencies not whenever you get scared your foreign policy is unpopular

By Striking Its Neighbors, Iran Has Deepened the Gulf’s Resolve to Fight Back — The Wall Street Journal Diplomats and analysts say Tehran miscalculated with its attacks on Dubai, Doha and Bahrain

It is a truth universally acknowledged, that when bombs start falling on you, you get mad at the people dropping the bombs, not the ppl they claim made them do it.

apple.news/Aa7zHC44ARdy...

Cervical cancer rates higher in states with low HPV vaccination rates

RFK Jr *lies* when he says cervical cancer risk is increased in women who get the HPV vaccine.

New study: "States with high vaccination rates have seen the biggest drop in cervical cancer, while states with low vaccination rates have had little to no progress"

www.cidrap.umn.edu/human-papill...

A hard-liner is likely to focus on suppressing any domestic opposition, but even a hardliner will have to deal with the economic problems. Hard to say how they will square the circles they’ll face

The chances of them picking a moderate, however, are obstructed by the conservative element in the military and security services.
The choice is likely to come down to whether those w the power to choose are more strategic, or more afraid of the hard-liner factions. Strategy seems unlikely to win.

Which will make it hard for them to get the US and ISR to leave them alone, and will maintain a level of suspicion among their Arab neighbors.

Iran will also be at an inflection point wrt their regional politics: most of their major allies are gone & they desperately need to rebuild their economy, which points to accommodation w their Arab neighbors. BUT their insecurity and economic needs also make a nuclear program even more important…

… will they choose someone more moderate and take the opportunity to placate the domestic population? The latter would prbly consolidate their power more quickly.

An interim governing council has already been set up, and the Assembly of Experts (the group of clerics responsible for choosing the next ayatollah) have three front-runner candidates.
The big Q (to me) is: will they pick a hard-liner who continues Khameini’s oppressive approach? Or …

Now that Khameini’s death is confirmed, will the regime collapse?

I would bet against it.

Khameini was v old, and both he/his lieutenants had been planning for the succession for some time. He had also delegated much of the gov work to others before the strikes in case he was killed/incommunicado

Tweet on X by Amir Kiyae reads: Strikes on Iran appear to have hit the home where opposition leaders Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard have been held under house arrest - both are reported safe, but their residence was damaged. Former President Ahmadineiad's home was also targeted. Israel has stated it is targeting Iranian leaders "past, present, and future." This follows previous Israeli strikes on Evin Prison. Draw your own conclusions,

Home of reformist opposition leaders from 2009 Green Movement, Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard was also hit by Israeli/US strikes. They have been under house arrest by the regime for over a decade.

A list of news outlets and social media sites whose billionaire owners, investors or parent companies also have U.S. government defense contracts:

Axios
CBS
NBC
The Washington Post
TikTok
YouTube
X
Soon: CNN

So sorry for your loss ❤️💔

The more I think about this, the more I think it is a huge underappreciated risk (on top of the other big risks). There's the day after problem for Iran itself, but also for the region. American diplomacy, influence, soft power, in tatters. Saudis condemned this. Huge diplomatic vacuum.

He was 💔💔

Forever the best boy

Some local reporting background from @amelianews.bsky.social on the West Virginia jails at issue from earlier this month: westvirginiawatch.com/2026/02/05/a...

Anjali posts on the emergency UN Security Council meeting

Obvs in the grand scheme this isn’t a big deal, but it was exactly a year ago today that I said goodbye to my baby boy, Fionny. I miss him so much.

Taps sign

bsky.app/profile/lind...

fwiw at the tempo of a high intensity air campaign everyone involved will be out of remotely useful targets one way or the other in under 2 weeks

Going to apologize up front to any authors/editors for whom I’m currently supposed to be reviewing. Having trouble concentrating.

This is certainly a not-UNlikely scenario …

When can we pre-order??

Oooh, exciting!! Looks amazing 🥳

Read this whole thread

Tbf, i don’t think
1. Kill bad guy
2.
3. Profit

Is necessarily what i would call logic ☺️

when the US pres says the below, it implies that he’s been told the US will take hits from Iran (primarily at bases/on ships in the region), and he’s priming the public w a narrative that these will be heroic deaths in a necessary venture. I don’t think it necessarily means a ground war is coming