Stefan Wolff

Russia is a likely winner of the war against Iran, but only in the short term: bit.ly/4rUzby4

After four years of war, an end of the fighting in Ukraine is not in sight But Kyiv's western allies should no longer be in any doubt about what to do.

A reconstituted European alliance, with a coalition at its heart that is not just willing but also capable of deterring Russia, is necessary and possible: bit.ly/40sGX61

We have just published Episode 2 of Navigating the Vortex | Ethnopolitics Edition, in which we talk with Tamirace Fakhoury and John Nagle about their work on power sharing and contentious politics in divided societies: bit.ly/4tI9gea

Why it's worth saving the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe And what role the UK can play in restoring the organisation's operational effectiveness

The OSCE – notwithstanding the organisation’s ongoing crisis – still represents an important forum to articulate and negotiate participating States’ national interests: bit.ly/46jVdS4

Pay-as-you-mediate: Iran, Ukraine and Donald Trump's board of peace Conflict settlements are not real-estate deals.

The inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace will mostly be remembered for its chairman-for-life threatening Iran with war: bit.ly/4tUf44z

The five problems with Trump's latest Ukraine peace plan that will only prolong the war By Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff

Putin may think that he has successfully tricked Trump into doing his bidding. But on this occasion, Zelensky may have outsmarted them both, albeit at the price of the war against his country continuing. navigatingthevortex.substack.com/p/the-five-p...

Proudly announcing my latest co-production which can be pre-ordered here: academic.oup.com/book/62306

Farcical peace talks continue in Abu Dhabi as Russia tries to bomb and freeze Ukraine into submission Russia, Ukraine and the US have met for a second time in as many weeks to discuss a possible cessation of hostilities.

Claims of progress in the negotiations in Abu Dhabi are therefore at best over-optimistic and at worst self-deluding: bit.ly/3Mfn2E7

After two rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi, it remains unclear whether an actual negotiation process will now get under way between Russia and Ukraine and what its format and direction will be: bit.ly/4bVyCif

Trump's performance at Davos underscored America's diminishing trustworthiness and dependability The consequences for Britain, the EU, and Ukraine are obvious and unpleasant.

Europe and its few scattered allies elsewhere need to start acting as if they were alone in a hostile world—because they are: bit.ly/4pVO0hV

Europe's push-back over Greenland forced a Trump climb-down — for now. But the reprieve is likely only temporary.

Current transatlantic de-escalation notwithstanding, has Europe done enough to persuade President Trump to change course permanently over Greenland? bit.ly/4adJgj5

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine now outlasts the Soviet fight against Nazi Germany What does history tell us about Kyiv’s prospects?

The war in Ukraine is likely to mark a few more milestones before there is another opportunity to prove again that aggression never pays: bit.ly/4pCQOAB

🇺🇸🇬🇱 The U.S. still depends on defense cooperation with Europe, warns @stefwolff.bsky.social, with any move on #Greenland carrying serious security risks.

What might the US do next after Venezuela? | Inside Story YouTube video by Al Jazeera English

Good discussion and analysis here. @aljazeera.com @stefwolff.bsky.social @drernestocast.bsky.social @charlesshapiro.bsky.social

Trump's Venezuela raid foreshadows more turbulence in a new 'great power' carve-up of the world It signals the return of the law of the jungle for which the US, and much of the rest of the world, will ultimately pay a heavy price.

The law of the jungle is back — and the US, and much of the rest of the world, will ultimately pay a heavy price for it: bit.ly/3YsbbVV

In light of recent US experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq, more instability, not less, will be the likely result of the capture of Maduro: bit.ly/4qFYMtC

The fall of Siversk caps a difficult year for Ukraine What the end of the war will look like is as unclear as when and how the sides will get there.

The fighting in Ukraine is likely to continue unabated for the time being as neither of the warring sides, nor their backers, appear exhausted enough for peace: bit.ly/4azaQrU

A fudge on Ukraine and a delay on Mercosur: how the EU procrastinates and fails to prove Trump wrong By Richard Whitman & Stefan Wolff

Internal divisions over Ukraine funding and Mercosur trade deal expose limitations of EU leadership in a world carved up by Washington, Moscow and Beijing: bit.ly/3MEtWD1

EU agrees €90 billion loan to Ukraine, but squabbles over frozen Russian assets expose the bloc’s deep divisions To placate pro-Moscow governments in Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia, the EU had to include an ‘opt-out’ clause for its support for Ukraine.

EU agrees €90 billion loan to Ukraine, but squabbles over frozen Russian assets expose the bloc’s deep divisions - my analysis with @stefwolff.bsky.social theconversation.com/eu-agrees-90...

New US national security strategy adds to Ukraine’s woes and exacerbates Europe’s dilemmas By Tetyana Malyarenko & Stefan Wolff

For Europe, deterring Russia and appeasing the US have become existential priorities in a bigger game in which Ukraine might end up as yet another bargaining chip: bit.ly/4abQ8xV

Thursdays are for Searches: The Russian Repression Calendar in Occupied Crimea - KonKoop Authoritarian control follows a grim calculus. The literature on state repression shows that coercion is not random but operates under a highly strategic logic. Russia’s repressive campaign in its occupied territories in Ukraine is no exception. Shortly after the illegal occupation and annexation of Crimea in February and March 2014,…

Russian repression against Crimean #Tatars in occupied Ukraine follows a pattern.
Using a new geo-coded event dataset, researchers Elmira Muratova & @felixschulte.bsky.social map human rights violations & explain why repression is often carried out on Thursdays. More on the #KonKoop DataLab blog ⤵️

🔎🇬🇪 New Expert Briefing | Georgia’s Political Landscape in Focus: A critical point for #democracy
On 11 Nov, FPC convened a parliamentary roundtable chaired by @joepowell.bsky.social MP featuring:
Eka Gigauri
Nino Evgenidze
Prof @stefwolff.bsky.social

📖 Read key insights: fpc.org.uk/wp-content/u...

Navigating the Vortex | Ethnopolitics Edition | Episode 1 George Kyris, The Recognition of a Right to Statehood and Palestine

Available now: The first episode of Navigating the Vortex | Ethnopolitics Edition featuring an interview with @georgekyris.bsky.social on the recognition of Palestine: bit.ly/4rp2ZTq

Trump’s 28-point plan was the result of a well-timed Russian move. For now, however, it is unlikely to work out the way the Kremlin had planned.

The amateurish nature of a process that produced Trump’s 28-point plan should be the real worry for Ukraine and its partners: bit.ly/483wTFp

As US and Russia negotiate again behind Kyiv’s back, Ukrainian and European weakness is exposed By Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff

Talk of Ukraine’s political and military collapse may turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy playing into Putin's hands: bit.ly/4rf5bwV

The continuation of Russia’s war against Ukraine serves Chinese interests in several important ways: bit.ly/4p66agW

Ukraine's latest corruption scandal not only threatens to derail Zelensky’s government. It also undermines Kyiv's war effort. By Tetyana Malyarenko & Stefan Wolff

Tolerating corruption is a luxury that Ukraine can no longer afford if it wants to survive as an independent country — the latest from Tetyana Malyarenko and me: bit.ly/3WXZJk5

The EU's assessment of Ukraine's progress toward membership is decidedly mixed. The report caps a bad month for Kyiv. By Tetyana Malyarenko & Stefan Wolff

The EU needs to decide how to balance holding the line on its membership standards while enabling Ukraine to hold the line against Russia: bit.ly/47FcYeq

How should Britain cultivate the Coalition of the Willing? The Big Ask | No. 44.2025

🇬🇧 should ‘think beyond the current geographic extent of the coalition, and consider how links with nations in the South Caucasus and Central Asia can be consolidated and expanded to strengthen it,’ says @stefwolff.bsky.social, @unibirmingham.bsky.social

#BigAsk #BritainsWorld

Trump’s heated White House meeting with Zelensky shows how well Putin is playing the US president It looked as if the US might supply Ukraine with game-changing new weapons. Then the Russian president phoned Donald Trump.

Great piece from @stefwolff.bsky.social on @ConversationUK. Thanks to @alastaircampbell2.bsky.social and @rory-stewart.bsky.social for the mention. As ever, Stefan's analysis of thie complex and fast-moving issue is spot on.
theconversation.com/trumps-heate...