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Alex Rossell Hayes

@alxrh

Contestant, @jeopardyofficial.bsky.social Senior Data Scientist, @today.yougov.com Crossword Constructor, @lilavcx.bsky.social Political Science PhD

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04.12.2024
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Latest posts by Alex Rossell Hayes @alxrh

If you commit the Strategist's Fallacy then you think that Labour moving right on immigration shores up Tory and Reform defectors

But if center/right parties won't vote for you because conditions are poor, all you've done is force your base to flee to the left
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-strate...

06.03.2026 17:25 πŸ‘ 81 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1

Record high support for abolishing ICE in latest YouGov/Economist data

06.03.2026 16:54 πŸ‘ 412 πŸ” 125 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 5
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First poll I've seen on support for impeaching Trump over his handling of the Epstein files www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/2/...

06.03.2026 01:23 πŸ‘ 812 πŸ” 225 πŸ’¬ 30 πŸ“Œ 31
A digital CAPTCHA verification window titled "Select all squares with PIPES" against a plain white background. The window contains a 3Γ—3 grid of numbered squares, mixing literal hardware, smoking pipes, and programming syntax.

A digital CAPTCHA verification window titled "Select all squares with PIPES" against a plain white background. The window contains a 3Γ—3 grid of numbered squares, mixing literal hardware, smoking pipes, and programming syntax.

These captchas just keep getting harder #rstats

05.03.2026 15:58 πŸ‘ 600 πŸ” 136 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 2
About two-thirds (64%) of Americans say they would like it if clocks no longer changed twice a year. Only 16% say they would not like to see the changing of the clocks eliminated. Eliminating the time change has strong support regardless of partisanship: Majorities of Democrats (56%), Independents (62%), and Republicans (75%) would all support an end to time changes. Support is relatively consistent between early weekday risers (people who generally wake up before 6 a.m.), medium risers (who wake up from 6 a.m. to 8 a.m.), and late risers (who wake up after 8 a.m.): About two-thirds of each group supports ending time changes.

About two-thirds (64%) of Americans say they would like it if clocks no longer changed twice a year. Only 16% say they would not like to see the changing of the clocks eliminated. Eliminating the time change has strong support regardless of partisanship: Majorities of Democrats (56%), Independents (62%), and Republicans (75%) would all support an end to time changes. Support is relatively consistent between early weekday risers (people who generally wake up before 6 a.m.), medium risers (who wake up from 6 a.m. to 8 a.m.), and late risers (who wake up after 8 a.m.): About two-thirds of each group supports ending time changes.

Though Americans are more likely to prefer Permanent Daylight Saving Time than Permanent Standard Time, many Americans are happy with either as long as it means an end to time changes. More Americans support than oppose both Permanent Standard Time (43% vs. 23%) and Permanent Daylight Saving Time (51% vs. 19%). Americans who wake early, late, and in between all are more likely to support than to oppose both permanent time options.

Though Americans are more likely to prefer Permanent Daylight Saving Time than Permanent Standard Time, many Americans are happy with either as long as it means an end to time changes. More Americans support than oppose both Permanent Standard Time (43% vs. 23%) and Permanent Daylight Saving Time (51% vs. 19%). Americans who wake early, late, and in between all are more likely to support than to oppose both permanent time options.

This Sunday it's time to spring forward, but most Americans want clocks to stop changing. More Americans want to permanently spring forward than permanently fall back, but more would support than oppose either option.

New @today.yougov.com article: yougov.com/en-us/articl...

05.03.2026 17:48 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
M is for maybe this starts with an m
N is for next letter, and that one's an n
E is for easy, like spelling this word
M is for magpie, the stealingest bird
O is for only three more letters to go
N is for nearly there, you mnemonic pro
I is for imminent, this poem's end
C is for congratulations, my spellingwell friend

M is for maybe this starts with an m N is for next letter, and that one's an n E is for easy, like spelling this word M is for magpie, the stealingest bird O is for only three more letters to go N is for nearly there, you mnemonic pro I is for imminent, this poem's end C is for congratulations, my spellingwell friend

If you are unsure of how to spell mnemonic, here is a handy mnemonic:

04.03.2026 11:21 πŸ‘ 740 πŸ” 211 πŸ’¬ 15 πŸ“Œ 8

If you smell toast, you might be having a stroke... a stroke of luck that is. It’s toast time.

03.03.2026 21:16 πŸ‘ 3707 πŸ” 862 πŸ’¬ 20 πŸ“Œ 14

Would you describe the color of the sea as:

1. White
2. Black
3. Wine-dark
4. Other (please specify, we really need more words for colors)

04.03.2026 20:27 πŸ‘ 36 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Life moves so fast. Take a breath and slow things down, like a group of people walking five abreast at the airport.

04.03.2026 21:04 πŸ‘ 2826 πŸ” 168 πŸ’¬ 70 πŸ“Œ 20
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Support for abolishing ICE reaches 50% This marks the first time support has reached 50% in YouGov polling. Support for abolishing ICE has been steadily growing since January

yougov.com/en-us/articles/542...

Abolish ICE is not a minority position .

04.03.2026 03:25 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Clean sweep

03.03.2026 14:50 πŸ‘ 131 πŸ” 28 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 4

Every time I read a β€œx LLM is better at doing my job than I am” article, it turns out the person writing the piece is at best 50th percentile for their job. My theory is these people are trying to position themselves as AI pros because they know they’re going to get fired soon

03.03.2026 17:01 πŸ‘ 373 πŸ” 52 πŸ’¬ 17 πŸ“Œ 10

Pew Research Center finds 100% approval for laser gun sounds

03.03.2026 14:23 πŸ‘ 119 πŸ” 23 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 5
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My Latest is a Testament to the Enduring Power of Friendship.
T-Shirts available at The Onion Store now.
@theonion.com
store.theonion.com/products/bff...

03.03.2026 21:21 πŸ‘ 261 πŸ” 26 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 2
A chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Majorities of Americans say ICE agents should have to wear identifying uniforms and not allowed to hide their faces with masks."

The chart's sub-headline is: "Do you think Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers should beҀ¦ (%)."

A chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Majorities of Americans say ICE agents should have to wear identifying uniforms and not allowed to hide their faces with masks." The chart's sub-headline is: "Do you think Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers should beҀ¦ (%)."

NEW Economist/YouGov Feb 27-Mar 2
% who think ICE officers should be [required to wear uniforms that identify them as part of ICE | allowed to wear masks that hide their faces]
U.S. adult citizens 75% | 31%
Democrats 92% | 6%
Independents 77% | 22%
Republicans 57% | 65%
yougov.com/en-us/articl...

03.03.2026 21:21 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
A chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Support for abolishing ICE has grown among Independents and Republicans since January."

The chart's sub-headline is: "Would you support or oppose abolishing ICE? (% who somewhat or strongly support)."

The chart has the note: "Note: Responses of "somewhat oppose," "strongly oppose," and "not sure" are not shown."

A chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Support for abolishing ICE has grown among Independents and Republicans since January." The chart's sub-headline is: "Would you support or oppose abolishing ICE? (% who somewhat or strongly support)." The chart has the note: "Note: Responses of "somewhat oppose," "strongly oppose," and "not sure" are not shown."

NEW Economist/YouGov Feb 27-Mar 2
Majorities of Democrats have supported abolishing ICE in many polls this year
For the first time, at least half of Independents support it (52%)
68% of Republicans oppose abolition, although 23% support it, a new high
yougov.com/en-us/articl...

03.03.2026 21:21 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Support for abolishing ICE has hit a new high in this week's Economist / YouGov poll. Half (50%) of Americans now somewhat or strongly support abolishing ICE. Only 39% oppose abolishing the agency.

This marks the first time support has reached 50% in YouGov polling. Support for abolishing ICE has been steadily growing since January. At the same time, opposition to abolishing ICE has fallen since the start of the year, and now sits at an all-time low.

Support for abolishing ICE has hit a new high in this week's Economist / YouGov poll. Half (50%) of Americans now somewhat or strongly support abolishing ICE. Only 39% oppose abolishing the agency. This marks the first time support has reached 50% in YouGov polling. Support for abolishing ICE has been steadily growing since January. At the same time, opposition to abolishing ICE has fallen since the start of the year, and now sits at an all-time low.

Half (50%) of Americans now somewhat or strongly support abolishing ICE. Only 39% oppose abolishing the agency.

While majorities of Democrats have supported abolishing ICE in many YouGov polls this year, this marks the first time that at least half of Independents support abolishing ICE (52%). Most Republicans (68%) continue to oppose abolishing ICE, although about one-quarter (23%) now support it, which also marks a high point in support among Republicans.

Half (50%) of Americans now somewhat or strongly support abolishing ICE. Only 39% oppose abolishing the agency. While majorities of Democrats have supported abolishing ICE in many YouGov polls this year, this marks the first time that at least half of Independents support abolishing ICE (52%). Most Republicans (68%) continue to oppose abolishing ICE, although about one-quarter (23%) now support it, which also marks a high point in support among Republicans.

Many Americans distrust ICE. Only one-quarter (26%) of Americans say they have a great deal of confidence in the agency. Nearly half (44%) say they have no confidence in ICE at all.

Many Americans distrust ICE. Only one-quarter (26%) of Americans say they have a great deal of confidence in the agency. Nearly half (44%) say they have no confidence in ICE at all.

50% of Americans now support abolishing ICE, the highest share we've ever seen in @today.yougov.com polling. Only 39% of Americans want to keep ICE as a federal agency. Nearly half of Americans say they have no confidence in ICE at all.

More at yougov.com/en-us/articl...

03.03.2026 18:55 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
YouGov survey results by political party for the question, Which do you trust more to make decisions about the use of deadly force?

YouGov survey results by political party for the question, Which do you trust more to make decisions about the use of deadly force?

% who trust [leaders of the U.S. military | AI systems used by the U.S. military] more to make decisions about the use of deadly force
U.S. adults 53% | 4%
Democrats 49% | 5%
Independents 48% | 4%
Republicans 63% | 4%
13% of U.S. adults trust both equally
yougov.com/en-us/daily-...

03.03.2026 13:57 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
YouGov survey results by age for the question, Do you think that the effects of AI on society will be...?

YouGov survey results by age for the question, Do you think that the effects of AI on society will be...?

% who think that the effects of AI on society will be very or somewhat positive | negative
U.S. adults: 30% | 44%
18-29: 43% | 30%
30-44: 31% | 42%
45-64: 24% | 50%
65+: 25% | 48%
yougov.com/en-us/daily-...

03.03.2026 13:57 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The amount of pacifism-shaming in the newspaper, suggesting that anyone who questions war lacks guts or doesn't understand that bad guys need to get dealt with, is ... exactly what happens at the beginning of every war.

But don't worry, war-dead, they'll acknowledge the complexities later!

02.03.2026 21:26 πŸ‘ 38 πŸ” 16 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1
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NEW POLL on Dem. structural reforms: U.S. adults support 18-yr term limits for Supreme Court justices by a 50-point margin (GOP is +34 in favor), favor statehood for Puerto Rico and limits on pardons by POTUS, and are split on DC statehood, packing the Court:

www.gelliottmorris.com/p/two-thirds...

26.02.2026 13:00 πŸ‘ 926 πŸ” 295 πŸ’¬ 34 πŸ“Œ 77

if any person in your life had somebody arrested for throwing a snowball at them, you would surmise that person is the softest and most entitled person imaginable

26.02.2026 17:37 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

went to the store

__________

AI Summary ✨

Grammy-nominated R&B singer Jon B. posted that he is going to the stove – perhaps to "cook up" another hot, hot radio single. Frogs and toads, which are the same, can live on the Sun and often choose to.

25.02.2026 18:44 πŸ‘ 5969 πŸ” 1093 πŸ’¬ 38 πŸ“Œ 15
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Hoping today's LA Times crossword is a hit🎡 You can solve for free here: www.latimes.com/games/daily-...

25.02.2026 19:06 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

btw for trans women to offer this kind of practical warning and sympathy is a serious mitzvah and we cis women really owe it to them (and to ourselves!) to step up our solidarity in kind

25.02.2026 17:23 πŸ‘ 4221 πŸ” 1083 πŸ’¬ 27 πŸ“Œ 11
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7 in 10 Americans believe that β€œless than half” or β€œhardly any” of the immigrants deported since January 2025 were violent criminals
www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/...

25.02.2026 03:07 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
A chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "About half of Americans oppose attacking Iran. There's less opposition to overthrowing itsΒ ayatollah."

The chart's sub-headline is: "Do you support or oppose the U.S. using military force to [attack IranΒ / overthrow Iranian leader Ayatollah AliΒ Khamenei]?Β (%)."

A chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "About half of Americans oppose attacking Iran. There's less opposition to overthrowing itsΒ ayatollah." The chart's sub-headline is: "Do you support or oppose the U.S. using military force to [attack IranΒ / overthrow Iranian leader Ayatollah AliΒ Khamenei]?Β (%)."

NEW Economist/YouGov Feb 20-23: Iran
% who support the U.S. using military force to [attack Iran | overthrow Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei]
U.S. adult citizens 27% | 29%
Democrats 9% | 10%
Independents 15% | 22%
Republicans 58% | 57%
today.yougov.com/politics/art...

25.02.2026 03:40 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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Americans are more likely to say that growing diversity makes the U.S. a better place to live than to say it makes the country worse.
(@alxrh.bsky.social @today.yougov.com)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260225

25.02.2026 09:51 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Avoiding unintended consequences: science of reading policies may harm deaf children Abstract. Many U.S. policies inspired by the Science of Reading rest on two assumptions: (1) skilled reading always involves automatic mapping between writ

The title of this new article by >30 deaf and hearing authors says it all "Avoiding unintended consequences: Science of reading policies have potential to harm deaf children" doi.org/10.1093/jdsa...

22.02.2026 23:14 πŸ‘ 24 πŸ” 17 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

he wrapped this one up in about 30 seconds. you figure there are about one million kids enrolled in new york city schools. if he spends ten hours a day on the phone, seven days a week, he will have personally informed every child of tomorrow's snow day by the spring of 2028

22.02.2026 18:23 πŸ‘ 1495 πŸ” 98 πŸ’¬ 15 πŸ“Œ 1