Dr. James H. Gundlach's Avatar

Dr. James H. Gundlach

@pecanjim

Retired Sociology/Demography professor. I know the United States has an awfully high middle aged death rate. My goal is to explain it well enough to get people to fix it.

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Latest posts by Dr. James H. Gundlach @pecanjim

My guess is the Trump family has picked up a lot of oil income producing interests and starting a war in the Middle East increases their income from that property.

07.03.2026 01:24 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Hey, Fox, Faux, News would be gone!

06.03.2026 16:02 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Take this kind of electric car and use this kind of battery in the garage connected to solar panels on the house roof. Then over night connect the car and garage batteries. Especially given the life of these batteries very high energy independence. When needed drive down to charging station.

06.03.2026 15:59 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Nope, I just have correlation between measures of Southern Baptist and death rates in state level data.

05.03.2026 01:42 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

This could be related to their high rate of dying because they use prayer to healing after having Southern Baptist issued health insurance. Just a hypothesis, don't have data to test it.

05.03.2026 01:25 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

In the United States we spend the most for health care but we rank around 60th in life expectancy. We are not getting what we pay for out of health care. I have looked for the hidden causes and have correlation level data that shows Southern Baptist and private health insurance are major causes.

05.03.2026 00:30 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The way it is done is convince people the message from God that you are good is trust God through prayer to heal you. I formed the hypothesis looking at neighbors over a few decades living in rural Alabama. Case study to hypothesis is normal science.

04.03.2026 23:22 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

When I see something like this, I ask myself: What could be causing this? When I get an idea, I look for data that will allow me to test it. In the United States some religions increase death rates others decrease it. Southern Baptist increase it the most.

04.03.2026 22:09 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I just collect data by searching for "Southern Baptist Church" and each state starting with AL and at the bottom of the first page of results is the number found I copy that number and paste it in the data set on the Alabama record. It might cost money to list but not to search.

04.03.2026 21:44 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I am inclined to be a conspiracy theorist. Creating doubt about science is just part of fundamentalist propaganda.

04.03.2026 16:37 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks for the comment.

04.03.2026 16:28 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
I came up with the hypothesis that Southern Baptist have a high death rate because living in rural Alabama for almost half a century I have seen several die after using prayer for health care, 

The available data are at:
   https://www.thearda.com/us-religion/statistics/rankings?typ=0&u=2&cod=419
But I became suspicious when I found the last five census measures of state percent Southern Baptist are all correlated at 0.97 or stronger. As a long time available data user, that made me suspicious of the data and in pursuit of another variable, I turned to the on-line Yellow Pages and did a counting of findings with a search for phone numbers for Southern Baptist church in each of our 50 states.

The graph show the values of two correlations for each year from 1968 through 2024. I correlated the death rates for years closest to each census year with the church survey data and the 2024 Yellow Pages data. In every case, the the Yellow Pages data is more strongly related to the state age 20-64 death rates in every one of the yearly correlations. 

In general I think we need to know a lot more about the Southern Baptist. I think they are a key component of the underlying politics that put Trump into power and they well may be part of the Russian underground effort to destroy the United states.  If there are any ex-Southern Baptist here, I would appreciate hearing from you. 

I am adding measuring the total effect if Southern Baptist on the United States high death rate to my to do list.

I came up with the hypothesis that Southern Baptist have a high death rate because living in rural Alabama for almost half a century I have seen several die after using prayer for health care, The available data are at: https://www.thearda.com/us-religion/statistics/rankings?typ=0&u=2&cod=419 But I became suspicious when I found the last five census measures of state percent Southern Baptist are all correlated at 0.97 or stronger. As a long time available data user, that made me suspicious of the data and in pursuit of another variable, I turned to the on-line Yellow Pages and did a counting of findings with a search for phone numbers for Southern Baptist church in each of our 50 states. The graph show the values of two correlations for each year from 1968 through 2024. I correlated the death rates for years closest to each census year with the church survey data and the 2024 Yellow Pages data. In every case, the the Yellow Pages data is more strongly related to the state age 20-64 death rates in every one of the yearly correlations. In general I think we need to know a lot more about the Southern Baptist. I think they are a key component of the underlying politics that put Trump into power and they well may be part of the Russian underground effort to destroy the United states. If there are any ex-Southern Baptist here, I would appreciate hearing from you. I am adding measuring the total effect if Southern Baptist on the United States high death rate to my to do list.

Here is a look at the difference in two ways of measuring the state percent Southern Baptist on state death rates from 1969 through 2024. Southern Baptism has a long history of increasing death rates and the online Yellow Pages is handy. πŸ§ͺπŸ’‘β˜ οΈ #Sociology #Population #SouthernBaptist

04.03.2026 16:12 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

I am 83 and recovering from an encephalitis infection of my brain. I put together interesting research findings that I just put out. I am never going to be able to publish because I can’t think complex enough to write papers up. Just getting interesting findings out and anybody can write up.

04.03.2026 02:33 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

It turns out I was wings about the effect of low vitamin D on calcium deposits on skin.

03.03.2026 02:17 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Down in central Alabama we hit 77 today.

03.03.2026 00:59 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks for the post, Unfortunately it will take another year before I can look at mortality data to show show what is going on death wise. I will go ahead and look at 2024 data that is almost all out and see if I can put something together.

02.03.2026 12:27 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Just before my junior year in school the government bought our farm to build Foss Lake in western Oklahoma. With an alcoholic father we opened the 33 Tavern in Butler. I left school at noon and walked down town to open, run and clean up our beer joint until 5. And I became a college professor. How?

02.03.2026 03:37 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

While no data is absolutely proof, using mortality data has increased human life expectancy, the age by which half of the newborns die, from about 14 in the mid 1600’s to above 80 in industrialized societies with socialized medicine today.

02.03.2026 02:24 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

It was my retirement ritual. My major problem came six months later, an encephalitis infection of my brain. Research has found only a 4% survival after age 45. I had just turned 66. I haves survived to 83. I will show you some of my favorite findings later.

01.03.2026 23:11 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Good to hear back from you. I am a retired Auburn University professor, you can read about what I was doing to get pressured into retiring earlier than I intended by searching for "Gundlach Auburn" in the New York Times archive, it was almost 20 years ago. More later.

01.03.2026 20:35 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The Bureau of Vital Statistics is now calculating statistical confidence intervals for 100% population data. I guess they don't know that confidence intervals were created to let you know the chance of being wrong when generalizing from samples to populations. πŸ§ͺπŸ’‘β˜ οΈ #Sociology #Population #Politics

01.03.2026 20:16 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

James (Jim) Gundlach here. I saw a posting with my last name and and different first name so I though I would say: Hi. If you would like to contact more, my regular email is:
pecanjim@bellsouth,.net

The pecan part of my list name is from roasting my coffee beans over a pecan wood fire.

01.03.2026 13:15 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Before punishing Trans they should prove that it is voluntary and controllable behavior.

28.02.2026 10:21 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

When I compared Canada's and the United States life expectancy on the CIA's now deleted country life expectancy, Canada's was 3.4 years longer than the United States. Comparing health case money spent, we, i live in the USA, spend almost exactly twice as much as Canada. We're getting ripped off.

28.02.2026 00:39 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Sure, they are Russian pawns out to destroy the United States.

27.02.2026 11:46 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I think his vision of what to do is provided by Russia. It is achieving Russia's goal of destroying the United States,

27.02.2026 11:44 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
The way to approach this post of four state maps is to look at the correlation for the state you are interested in and note this correlation for recent years and deaths rates then go to the second, for age 1-19, graph and make the same not then go the the age 20-64 graph and note the correlation for that age group and then go back and look at the age 65-84 map to see how recent death rates have changed there. 

\Here is the r's in a table to get values for unlabeled states. 

State 	r Age 0
AL	-0.14
AK	0.7
AZ	0.41
AR	0.6
CA	0.28
CO	0.07
CT	0.39
DC	0.54
DE	0.09
FL	-0.18
GA	-0.08
HI	-0.67
ID	0.08
IL	-0.27
IN	-0.15
IA	-0.15
KS	-0.31
KY	0.38
LA	-0.54
ME	-0.18
MD	-0.52
MA	-0.82
MI	-0.27
MN	-0.07
MS	0.61
MO	0.13
MT	0.85
NE	0.8
NV	-0.12
NH	-0.33
NJ	-0.86
NM	-0.29
NY	-0.73
NC	-0.27
ND	-0.31
OH	-0.06
OK	0.41
OR	0.58
PA	-0.5
RI	-0.55
SC	0.32
SD	0.55
TN	-0.58
TX	0.77
UT	-0.11
VT	0.01
VA	0.4
WA	0.69
WV	-0.35
WI	-0.3
WY	-0.55

The way to approach this post of four state maps is to look at the correlation for the state you are interested in and note this correlation for recent years and deaths rates then go to the second, for age 1-19, graph and make the same not then go the the age 20-64 graph and note the correlation for that age group and then go back and look at the age 65-84 map to see how recent death rates have changed there. \Here is the r's in a table to get values for unlabeled states. State r Age 0 AL -0.14 AK 0.7 AZ 0.41 AR 0.6 CA 0.28 CO 0.07 CT 0.39 DC 0.54 DE 0.09 FL -0.18 GA -0.08 HI -0.67 ID 0.08 IL -0.27 IN -0.15 IA -0.15 KS -0.31 KY 0.38 LA -0.54 ME -0.18 MD -0.52 MA -0.82 MI -0.27 MN -0.07 MS 0.61 MO 0.13 MT 0.85 NE 0.8 NV -0.12 NH -0.33 NJ -0.86 NM -0.29 NY -0.73 NC -0.27 ND -0.31 OH -0.06 OK 0.41 OR 0.58 PA -0.5 RI -0.55 SC 0.32 SD 0.55 TN -0.58 TX 0.77 UT -0.11 VT 0.01 VA 0.4 WA 0.69 WV -0.35 WI -0.3 WY -0.55

Here is the same map with correlations for ages 1 through 19. and here is that data:

State	r Age 1-19
AL	0.06
AK	0.16
AZ	-0.27
AR	0.58
CA	-0.4
CO	0.64
CT	-0.6
DC	-0.05
DE	0.71
FL	0.32
GA	0.76
HI	-0.4
ID	0.27
IL	0.02
IN	0.63
IA	-0.47
KS	0.61
KY	0.09
LA	0.6
ME	0.8
MD	0.72
MA	-0.47
MI	0.4
MN	-0.54
MS	0.76
MO	0.29
MT	0.35
NE	0.02
NV	0.89
NH	0.82
NJ	-0.59
NM	0.69
NY	-0.28
NC	0.82
ND	-0.08
OH	0.07
OK	0.76
OR	0.6
PA	0.35
RI	-0.38
SC	0.1
SD	0.46
TN	0.84
TX	0.7
UT	0.59
VT	0.51
VA	0.57
WA	0.05
WV	0.49
WI	0.46
WY	-0.13

Here is the same map with correlations for ages 1 through 19. and here is that data: State r Age 1-19 AL 0.06 AK 0.16 AZ -0.27 AR 0.58 CA -0.4 CO 0.64 CT -0.6 DC -0.05 DE 0.71 FL 0.32 GA 0.76 HI -0.4 ID 0.27 IL 0.02 IN 0.63 IA -0.47 KS 0.61 KY 0.09 LA 0.6 ME 0.8 MD 0.72 MA -0.47 MI 0.4 MN -0.54 MS 0.76 MO 0.29 MT 0.35 NE 0.02 NV 0.89 NH 0.82 NJ -0.59 NM 0.69 NY -0.28 NC 0.82 ND -0.08 OH 0.07 OK 0.76 OR 0.6 PA 0.35 RI -0.38 SC 0.1 SD 0.46 TN 0.84 TX 0.7 UT 0.59 VT 0.51 VA 0.57 WA 0.05 WV 0.49 WI 0.46 WY -0.13

Now the middle aged, notice how different it generally is from the others. Again here are the correlations 

State age 20-64	r Age 20-64
AL	0
AK	0.57
AZ	0.13
AR	0.09
CA	0.13
CO	0.2
CT	-0.21
DC	0.07
DE	-0.21
FL	-0.2
GA	0.03
HI	0.16
ID	-0.09
IL	-0.13
IN	-0.05
IA	0.09
KS	0
KY	0.01
LA	0.08
ME	0.26
MD	-0.32
MA	-0.4
MI	-0.19
MN	0.22
MS	0.08
MO	-0.08
MT	0.02
NE	-0.06
NV	0.14
NH	-0.3
NJ	-0.44
NM	0.26
NY	-0.06
NC	0.11
ND	0.15
OH	-0.2
OK	0.05
OR	0.57
PA	-0.28
RI	-0.26
SC	-0.03
SD	0.12
TN	0
TX	-0.07
UT	-0.16
VT	0.43
VA	0.01
WA	0.48
WV	0.02
WI	0.08
WY	0.07

Now the middle aged, notice how different it generally is from the others. Again here are the correlations State age 20-64 r Age 20-64 AL 0 AK 0.57 AZ 0.13 AR 0.09 CA 0.13 CO 0.2 CT -0.21 DC 0.07 DE -0.21 FL -0.2 GA 0.03 HI 0.16 ID -0.09 IL -0.13 IN -0.05 IA 0.09 KS 0 KY 0.01 LA 0.08 ME 0.26 MD -0.32 MA -0.4 MI -0.19 MN 0.22 MS 0.08 MO -0.08 MT 0.02 NE -0.06 NV 0.14 NH -0.3 NJ -0.44 NM 0.26 NY -0.06 NC 0.11 ND 0.15 OH -0.2 OK 0.05 OR 0.57 PA -0.28 RI -0.26 SC -0.03 SD 0.12 TN 0 TX -0.07 UT -0.16 VT 0.43 VA 0.01 WA 0.48 WV 0.02 WI 0.08 WY 0.07

And finally here is the age group 65-84, I do not do the age group 85+ for two reasons, I only get to do four and since the age group 85+ only ends with the unlabeled oldest person dying, it is difficult to understand. Anyway here is the data for this graph: 

The thing to know is that in all the other economically developed countries this kind of look at mortality data would show very close to the same correlation across these age groups.

Final state correlations:

StateAge65-84	r Age 65-84
AL	0.17
AK	-0.33
AZ	-0.26
AR	-0.33
CA	0.17
CO	-0.2
CT	0.27
DC	0.08
DE	0.12
FL	-0.08
GA	0.1
HI	-0.43
ID	0.11
IL	0.2
IN	0.17
IA	0
KS	0.03
KY	-0.12
LA	0.12
ME	-0.01
MD	0.2
MA	0.28
MI	0.19
MN	0.08
MS	0.02
MO	0.05
MT	0.16
NE	0.09
NV	0.01
NH	-0.14
NJ	0.45
NM	-0.13
NY	0.36
NC	-0.15
ND	0.4
OH	0.19
OK	0
OR	-0.51
PA	0.2
RI	0.6
SC	-0.08
SD	0.21
TN	-0.01
TX	0.17
UT	0
VT	0.07
VA	-0.16
WA	-0.34
WV	-0.2
WI	0.27
WY	0.05

And finally here is the age group 65-84, I do not do the age group 85+ for two reasons, I only get to do four and since the age group 85+ only ends with the unlabeled oldest person dying, it is difficult to understand. Anyway here is the data for this graph: The thing to know is that in all the other economically developed countries this kind of look at mortality data would show very close to the same correlation across these age groups. Final state correlations: StateAge65-84 r Age 65-84 AL 0.17 AK -0.33 AZ -0.26 AR -0.33 CA 0.17 CO -0.2 CT 0.27 DC 0.08 DE 0.12 FL -0.08 GA 0.1 HI -0.43 ID 0.11 IL 0.2 IN 0.17 IA 0 KS 0.03 KY -0.12 LA 0.12 ME -0.01 MD 0.2 MA 0.28 MI 0.19 MN 0.08 MS 0.02 MO 0.05 MT 0.16 NE 0.09 NV 0.01 NH -0.14 NJ 0.45 NM -0.13 NY 0.36 NC -0.15 ND 0.4 OH 0.19 OK 0 OR -0.51 PA 0.2 RI 0.6 SC -0.08 SD 0.21 TN -0.01 TX 0.17 UT 0 VT 0.07 VA -0.16 WA -0.34 WV -0.2 WI 0.27 WY 0.05

Here is a difficult post with recent death rate trends for all the states for age groups 0, 1-19, 20-64 and 65-84. The maps do not have data for small states on the chart but below the graph is the data for all the states. See text on how to read. πŸ§ͺπŸ’‘β˜ οΈ #Sociology #Population #Health

26.02.2026 17:55 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Naming your work to sound good to other scientist causes the public to not know what the hell you are doing and causes you to keep trying to get people understand what you do rather than telling them what is killing them.

25.02.2026 14:18 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I have tried to look at that but the deaths caused by health insurance refusing to pay for care for the insured shrinks the gap between insured and uninsured by making insured deaths higher. This hides an uncountable number of insured deaths which shrinks the difference between insured and the un's.

25.02.2026 14:12 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks, the recovery is slow and I probably won't live long enough to fully recover. I have played with mortality data a lot, major finding is Southern Baptist using prayer of health care is one of the main causes of the United States high death rate.

24.02.2026 21:19 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0