@resiliencesci
Director FinBio.org Professor of Environmental Science with focus on Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University stockholmresilience.org projects: regimeshifts.org biospherefutures.net goodanthropocenes.net
and a recent review of our futures methods
Transformative foresight for diverse futures: the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes initiative
Preiser+
doi.org/10.1111/dpr....
we have an ongoing special feature
"Seeds of Good Anthropocenes: Envisioning and Exploring Pathways toward Transformative Futures"
that captures some of the insights from this research
ecologyandsociety.org/feature/160/
right now 5 papers - but ~10 more in review
Solnit's work is one of the inspirations between our project
"Seeds of a Good Anthropoence"
for over a decade we've been helping imagine positive futures built from connecting the diverse alternatives that exist at the margins of our worlds
goodanthropocenes.net
The Beginning Comes After the End
by Rebecca Solnit
"shines a light on the vibrant world often hidden within our own seemingly gloomier one — a world that has embraced ideas of interconnection, ecological care and political equality"
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/07/m...
Increasing synchronicity of global extreme fire weather
Yin+
doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx8813
synchronous fire weather increased during 1979 to 2024
>2X increase in most regions
"over 1/2 of the observed increase is attributable to anthropogenic climate change."
Wildfire Seasons Are Starting to Overlap: Simultaneous emergencies in different parts of the world could stop countries from sharing ground crews and equipment, new research warns
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/c...
The drop in the price battery storage is incredible, joining onshore wind and solar as now cheaper than coal, on average globally. about.bnef.com/insights/cle...
US tv news decreased coverage of climate change - 1/2 of 2023 levels; and 40% of 2022 levels
US "Corporate broadcast networks again reduced climate coverage in 2025 ...ABC, CBS, and NBC aired a combined 8 hours and 25 minutes of climate coverage across 201 segments, a 35% decline from 2024."
www.mediamatters.org/broadcast-ne...
Marine Traffic
www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/...
Analysis of vessel activity indicates tanker transits are now around 90% lower than last week.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhAQ...
A Growing Tree metaphor represented by a sugar maple in fall; a quaking aspen or poplar in spring; a spruce in winter; and a cedar in the summer. The components of A Growing Tree represent four Action Platforms for respectfully and ethically bridging Indigenous and Western knowledge systems in biodiversity research. Truth, meaning actions related to understanding and acknowledging the colonial history and the contemporary context of a project, is symbolized by soil. Good Relationships, meaning actions related to growing and strengthening relationships, are symbolized by roots. Research Approach, meaning actions related to governing and guiding the research process, is symbolized by the trunk and branches. Methods, meaning actions related to the methods used for gathering, analyzing, and reporting information, are symbolized by foliage. The image includes a selection of three demonstrative Action Items for each Action Platform; see tables in text for all 26 Action Items.
A Growing Tree metaphor: identifying and reflecting on 26 Action Items for ethical bridging of Indigenous and Western knowledge systems in biodiversity research and monitoring
Rathwell+
doi.org/10.5751/ES-1...
to help "conceive, design, and implement biodiversity research and monitoring"
the return of
Broken Social Scene
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broken_...
new album "Remember the Humans"
english.elpais.com/culture/2026...
"reunites the collective that transformed indie rock at the beginning of this century"
Science at Risk: The Urgent Need for Institutional Support of Long-Term Ecological and Evolutionary Research in an Era of Data Manipulation and Disinformation url: academic.oup.com/bioscience/a...
New working paper: Prosperity within Limits? Planetary Habitability, Global Convergence & Structural Transformation 2026-2100 wid.world/news-article...
More to come in the Global Justice Report to be released at the World Inequality Conference Paris June 4-6 2026 inequalitylab.world/en/event/wor...
A collaborative approach to ethics review in applied and multi-actor work.🧪🌍
For independent researchers and evaluators without ready access to institutional review, this page outlines a practical peer review model that makes ethical judgement visible.
learningforsustainability.net/human-ethics...
The global island species–area relationship for plants "a simple power model explains a remarkable amount of variation, with ISAR slope and residual variation explicable by isolation, island origins, and proportion of endemism" 🧪🌐 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Pokémon turns 30: how the fictional pocket monsters shaped science
doi.org/10.1038/d415...
"researchers ...designed a Pokémon-inspired card-trading game, which they named Phylo. Players build food chains, create stable ecosystems and sabotage opponents' ecosystems, racking up points in the process"
A number of folks in political science asked me for recommendations for books on qualitative methods. I really love this one.
#RPVBooks #NewReadingMaterial
Distribution of absolute numerical probability estimates for phrase ordered by mean value from an open access dataset containing over 150,000 probability-based language judgements.
How likely is 'likely'?
kucharski.substack.com/p/insights-f...
reflections on and some tests of how different people infer the probability of different phases - and which are interpreted more or less consistently
US stocks trail rest of the world by the widest margin in decades Performance of S&P 500 minus MSCI ACWI ex USA (percentage points) Each line represents one calendar year (1995–2026); 2026 = year to date
US stocks trail rest of the world by the widest margin in decades
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
"Global stocks, measured in the widely tracked MSCI World Index...are up by 2 per cent so far in 2026. That’s decent. But if you strip out the US, you’re up a much rosier 9 per cent."
@elenabennett.bsky.social and team on 'The future of Global Environmental Assessments: 20 years after the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 'Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 79: 101618.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2026.101618
O.A. link:
urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
Extraordinary piece that shows how limited we are in being able to imagine and plan for the unthinkable. Same problem in realising the huge assault that a hotter world will bring with climate disasters, food shortages and massive human movement
Investor Democracy
Bauer+
preprint
dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...
using deliberative minipublics to determine the interests of investors
"leads participants to recommend expanding impact investing...
board subsequently commits to increasing impact investments by €300 million to €1.2 billion"
commentary:
Godale+
doi.org/10.1038/d415...
"Analyses of a Swedish tree-ring archive suggest that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide has lowered soil-nitrogen supply, which could cap carbon storage by land ecosystems"
Rising atmospheric CO2 reduces nitrogen availability in boreal forests
doi.org/10.1038/s415...
"declining N availability in response to rising CO2 will be a more dominant driver of boreal forest C exchange in the future, compared with N enrichment from atmospheric Nr deposition"
Hope in the Face of Uncertainty: The Value of Futures Literacy
S Fournier-Sylvester
www.edcan.ca/articles/hop...
on the value of futures literary in schools in Canada
New from me & fellow @bloomberg.com reporter Alastair Marsh - as the UK suffers through one of the soggiest-ever starts to the year, banks are taking a closer look at their mortgage liabilities, and in some cases starting to limit their exposure to flood risk. Gift link:
All economic models reviewed. Includes domain-specific models (which only meet one or two criteria), core models (which meet almost all criteria), and EE models (which include all criteria for inclusion but might have caveats for inclusion). Axes are thematic/qualitative and not explicitly quantitative due to having many dimensions simplified to two. The single asterisk on MAgPIE denotes that we refer to the highly spatialized versions of the model, especially those that are further downscaled with a LUC model (von Jeetze et al. 2023). Some models could have attributes from different category boxes, making perfect categorization challenging, especially when distinguishing between CGE models and IAMs. Models that are frequently paired with other models from different groups (e.g., REMIND-MAgPIE or MESSAGE-GLOBIOM) are labeled with only their IAM name for clarity and are denoted with two asterisks. Abbreviations: AIML, artificial intelligence and machine learning; CGE, computed general equilibrium; DGVM, dynamic global vegetation model; DSGE, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium; EE, Earth-Economy; ES, ecosystem service; IAM, integrated assessment model; LUC, land-use change; SES, social-ecological system.
Earth-Economy Modeling: Advances in Linking Economic and Ecosystem Models
Johnson+
doi.org/10.1146/annu...
"reviews a wide range of models that integrate ecological and economic systems...
[and reveals]
the importance of and associated challenges, but also the high demand, for this type of model."
The chart shows how people’s food purchases change after they start using GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. In the first 1–6 months on the medication, people buy less junk food. Sales of chips drop by about 10%, cheese and meat fall by around 5–6%, candy and chocolate decline slightly, and alcohol decreases a bit. Yoghurt is the exception — its consumption increases by a few percent. After people stop taking the drugs, some foods rebound. Candy and chocolate rise sharply above previous levels (around +10%), alcohol also increases, and meat moves closer to normal. Chips and cheese remain slightly below baseline. Yoghurt stays somewhat higher than before. In simple terms: while on GLP-1 drugs, people cut back on snacks and alcohol and buy more yoghurt. After stopping, some indulgent foods bounce back — especially sweets.
GLP-1 drugs, such as Ozempic,
could reshape food systems
people's food consumption is shifting
->"Weight-loss jabs push sugar price to five-year low"
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
and the drug's impacts continue after people stop taking them
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Abstract Rather than seeking ivory-tower isolation, members of the Rural Sociological Society have always been distinguished by a willingness to work with specialists from a broad range of disciplines, and to work on some of the world's most challenging problems. What is less commonly recognized is that the willingness to reach beyond disciplinary boundaries can contribute not just to the solution of real-world problems, but also to the advancement of the discipline itself. This point is increasingly being illustrated in studies of environment-society relationships. Most past discussions of humans' roles in environmental problems have focused on overall or average human impacts, but rural sociologists have played leading roles in identifying what I have come to call “the double diversion.” First, rather than being well-represented by averages, environmental damages are often characterized by high levels of disproportionality, with much or most of the harm being created by the diversion of environmental rights and resources to a surprisingly small fraction of the relevant social actors. The dispropor-tionality appears to be made possible in part through the second diversion, namely distraction—the diversion of attention, largely through the taken-for-granted but generally erroneous assumption that the environmental harm “must” be for the benefit of us all. There are good reasons why rural sociologists would have been among the first to notice both of these “diversions”— and why they will give even greater attention to both in the future.
here's a rural sociology take
Environmental Degradation, Disproportionality, and the Double Diversion: Reaching Out, Reaching Ahead, and Reaching Beyond
Rural Sociology
2009 B Freudenburg
doi.org/10.1526/0036...
“This is my praise song for Farwell Canyon—that glorious Coyote-blessed and bewitched cathedral of salmon—for my enemy who is also my relative, and for the fish we love and share.”
Unmissable Julian Brave Noisecat essay on rivers, memories & imagining otherwise.
placesjournal.org/article/farw...