Alexander Clarkson

As it is my hunch is the IRGC will survive this for now but the sheer level of damage meted out to the Iranian economy and infrastructure through the knock on effects of this war will have a severe impact on the material conditions that shape the regime's structural position in and outside Iran

That goes for Americans who oppose this war as well as those who back it. A lot of quick judgements being made on day 5 about the impact hugely destabilising use of US airpower will be when in reality the wider effects will play out over months and years after Trump declares victory and walks away

Beats me how no one in Washington figured out that the logical move for anti-regime Iranians and dissident elements in the regime when faced with a military intervention led by a wildly unreliable US is to sit back and see what happens rather than go Leeroy Jenkins on day 1

At least with the Israelis it is pretty clear that they are trying to destroy the Iranian state

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Interesting is also the long-term trend. The UK had a real Brexit low, and is now back up, whereas France was consistently the most trusted partner.

For the US, clear movement following the Presidency - trust in the Obama & Biden US, little trust in Trump's US:

Markwayne called Rand Paul a “freaking snake” last week and said he supported his neighbor beating the crap out of him. Let’s see who the chair of the Senate Homeland Security committee is…oh goody it’s Rand Paul.

from the point of view that the best we can hope for is deep incompetence mixed with malice, this is good. Mullin has even more of the first than Noem did.

Never mind the US, the Chinese have less of a strategic footprint in the Middle East than the Europeans

I've always been sceptical about claims that China could become a global power that replaces the US because Beijing never showed much interest in the strategic effort needed to take over as security guarantor in the Middle East and other global regions China's economy depends on

For all the talk of an Asian century, China and other Asian powers never prepared for scenarios where the US would flip from the primary security guarantor in the Middle East they relied on to the primary source of instability that would undermine their energy supply chains

lmao mullin is going to fucking *hate* this job, i will be surprised if he’s in it a year

why are so many of you taking a really bad and dumb piece on maven as gospel

there's a million reasons why the US unintentionally hit a school (also entirely possible it was the IDF), "the AI had bad data and whoopsie we just took its outputs as gospel straight into the JIPTL" ain't one

I guess Rosemont is too busy hating Verdun to hate the rest of Canada

Did this poll include Quebeckers?

Should the U.S. have taken military action against Iran? (Among MAGA) 🟢 Yes: 90% 🔴 No: 5% NBC poll | 2/27-3/3

Every single time:
1. Trump does something hawkish on foreign affairs
2. Breathless stories are written about MAGA being mad and schisming, quoting the same three people (Tucker, Bannon, Greene)
3. Polls show that MAGA Republicans support Trump's move 160%-3%

Widespread panic in #Beirut after Israel issues unprecedented evacuation order for southern suburbs. Traffic is choked, people rushing to leave & head north. Drones in the air. WhatsApp messages urging ppl to crack windows open to avoid shattering from expected blasts #lebanon

Azerbaijan just closed airspace "in the south of the country" per Bloomberg macro squawk. Losing that link would have a massive impact on Europe-Asia (incl the Indian subcontinent and ANZ) air travel.

That is something the European naval squadron underway towards the Eastern Mediterranean will be useful for... Simple defensive mission, with wide political approval - not many such opportunities... Except Ukraine, but for unfathomable reasons, we still do not directly defend European air space.

Its more like my point on day 1 that attacks on GCC infrastructure will drag Europeans in a 'defensive' operation to defend energy installations, extraction and Hormuz (we need US/GCC/+ for this)

My granny had a funny story about being so incredibly bored and fed up once during the Blitz, when she’d been in a crowded public shelter all day with nothing happening outside, that she and a friend decided to go out for a walk, whereupon a V2 landed in the next street. Lol.

Uk's Home secretary Shabana Mahmood.

So Shabana Mahmood says refused asylum seeker families could get up to £40,000 to leave Britain...

Meanwhile at 10 Downing Street, someone’s clearly teaching a masterclass titled: “How to Annoy Literally Everyone in One Easy Policy.”

Five stars. No notes. Absolute bipartisan chaos. 🍿

No, it’s worse.

It’s a war without a political objective.

Plenty of wars have opened without a clear plan to reconcile desired ends with available means, we may be the first country to go to war without even a basic concept of victory.

War for the memes. War for the vibes. War for the Warriors.

Wealthy Dubai residents race back to UAE to avoid tax bills Some risk spending too few days in the emirate and too many in the UK

Another datapoint for why Polanski’s “soak the rich” vibe resonates with voters www.ft.com/content/80bf...

My Ukrainian grandparents would recount stories, some quite funny, about surviving bombing among refugees and slave workers. My Austrian grandmother on the other side would recount tales of surviving strafing under trains.

Many US analysts grew up listening to tales of surviving as aircrew.

Taking another look at this, a sense I've had for a while is that there is an odd disconnect between how impact of airpower is discussed by American scholars as an abstract policy process and European scholars whose parents and grandparents experienced the impact of airpower as social catastrophe

Cook Islands

Pet take that the reputation and long term viability of Dubai and Abu Dhabi as global centres of power would be strengthened if a lot of these mercenary rentiers were moved on to the next legal black hole

There has been some speculation about the size of a potential rebellion over the immigration proposals; Tony Vaughan's letter gives you a starting point-100 MPs opposing the changes in pretty strong terms

The Govt's majority is 158. This puts us in the top 5 largest rebellions of all time already

I'd watch a travel show charting Alexander Armstrong's spiritual journey from Dortmund to Bochum