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Bob Hayes

@bobhayes

Yank in London who trained myself to say "football." Analytics professional and hobbyist. Used to write things, many of which are still relevant, here: https://fromthebyline.substack.com/

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20.09.2023
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Latest posts by Bob Hayes @bobhayes

Yeah, they actually slightly edged the xG so “smashed” probably isn’t accurate, and as mentioned in my next post, they’ve been good in other recent games. It’s just a pretty big points gap to make up still.

01.03.2026 14:53 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

West Ham could/should have gotten 6 points out of MU and Bournemouth but got 2. If they had gotten those points, this would look completely different.

01.03.2026 14:49 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Tottenham are terrible but I don’t think the juice is there in the chasing pack.

This weekend is a microcosm, where one of their competitors got smashed by Liverpool and the other is losing to a Brighton team in woeful form.

01.03.2026 14:48 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0
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It’s worth having a stare down Arsenal’s PL-only match log.

In 2025, the team was rolling, and all bad results were some combination of finite, explainable, and inevitable.

In 2026, they just haven’t really been at it. Even those big wins were flattering scorelines (and against far weaker teams).

18.02.2026 22:12 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Days since Eze last executed an action of value for Arsenal Football Club:

[googles date of Arsenal-Spurs]

[calculates how many days it has been since then]

12.02.2026 21:07 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

there is some kind of mass psychosis going on in Arsenal fandom about Martin Odegaard

he's an obviously highly productive football player who also works hard and also does beautiful things with the ball

and people afaict disproportionately *within the fandom* have decided they think he sucks now

04.02.2026 17:23 👍 67 🔁 6 💬 12 📌 2

Drives me crazy, especially for the simpler ones. The commentators don’t even bother.

For example, Eze’s done that video and introduced himself in other contexts for years, and his name is pronounced “ehzuh” but for some reason people decided it’s “ehzay” and there’s no going back.

03.02.2026 23:45 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The truly amazing part? He is the only one pronouncing it (essentially) correctly

youtu.be/ScNovNeQUU4?...

03.02.2026 22:45 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Sorry to head you’ve had some tough times, Adam. I hope all is well. Don’t let the annoying internet people get to you, which I know can be a challenge.

25.01.2026 23:10 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Arsenal conceding 3 is going to be a red herring in the reaction to this; the problem is more in the inability to create when needing to, plus some poor sloppiness in minutes ~30-50.

25.01.2026 18:29 👍 10 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

I thought he was a questionable buy when we bought him (and of course everyone was ecstatic) and I’ve still been disappointed.

Beyond the few moments we all remember — which have been valuable! — he’s offering nothing.

25.01.2026 18:20 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Taking Ødegaard off was the mistake. There’s no passing in midfield.

There’s no reason to take Ødegaard off when chasing a goal unless he’s dead or playing terribly, neither of which were the case.

25.01.2026 18:10 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 1

I was hoping this was a good opportunity for Eze to do the thing where he does something (for the first time since November) but nope, more of the same

25.01.2026 18:09 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

The frequency at which I oscillate between “Arsenal are the best team in Europe and are on their way to a historically special season” and “Arsenal aren’t very good” is troubling

25.01.2026 17:53 👍 7 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Can’t wait for this lad to score the winner

13.01.2026 19:05 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

That’s the fewest possible games for Manchester United in a season, confirmed

No UEFA + elimination in their first game in both domestic cups

11.01.2026 18:24 👍 13 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 2

Quietly, not only are all 3 relegation spots quite possibly already locked in, we might already have our final top 5.

I’ll consult the models tomorrow but think the current bottom 3 may now have joint probability >50% to go down. I doubt we are there with the top 5 but don’t think it’s far off.

06.01.2026 21:57 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Rotated every player they reasonably could, put up 3.3 xG / 3.1 xGOT, conceded on the only shot on target.

I’m fine with either result here and the performance was good. However this falls, there’s very little to be upset about.

23.12.2025 22:09 👍 6 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Martinelli is absolutely cooking. Arsenal up to 1.5 xG, need to get one in the net.

23.12.2025 20:44 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

The NFL quietly gradually moving toward the large majority of teams having domes -- including in geographies that do not remotely need them -- is a bummer.

Too much obsession by the suits with year-round use and getting big events. Too much obsession by the coaches with controllable conditions.

22.12.2025 21:56 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The comparative npxG in Forest-Spurs and Palace-City are basically identical, and both games are 3-0 in opposite directions

14.12.2025 15:50 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

5 total shots in over an hour in Sunderland

14.12.2025 15:24 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Trossard increasingly looks like the modal pick for starting LW, which is quite funny considering all the movements this summer (and not the greatest situation for the club long term)

13.12.2025 22:16 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Arsenal’s key issue today was Gyökeres, Martinelli, Eze all seem to need transition to be effective, and it was a bus-park game

…but also the opponent is terrible and those guys shouldn’t need more favorable match conditions to beat them

13.12.2025 22:14 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

The costs committed to him are too high to say “well you see it has to be a transition-heavy game where he’s playing in the left half-space with a wide winger and a striker running in behind” etc.

13.12.2025 21:20 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Gotta figure out how to get Eze doing anything useful that’s not scoring a hat trick against Tottenham

13.12.2025 21:17 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Kinda feels like all the attackers on the bench are better fits for this match than all the ones playing. I bet we will see changes quickly.

13.12.2025 20:51 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Playing in a winning game state in Bruges with a clearly weaker opponent trying to play in transition is the archetypal Gyökeres use case… and he did nothing

10.12.2025 21:24 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

ayyy lmaoo

10.12.2025 21:17 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Yeah he’s definitely been hung out to try by having no overlapper ever and often no LCM playing directly with him.

I like him and he has his uses but I’ll never forget the period when he looked at least as high-potential as Saka, and man have their progressions diverged.

10.12.2025 20:58 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0