Julius Diener

Wir sind in Mannheim II, da ist ein ganzer Fluss dazwischen

is this right-wing GenZ in the room with us right now?

Es scheint als hätten einige die Chancen von SPD und Grünen für das Direktmandat etwas falsch eingeschätzt wenn man das Ergebnis der beiden Parteien in Mannheim I anguckt

Future Issues | Politics and Governance Politics and Governance is an innovative new offering to the world of online peer-reviewed open access publishing in the Political Sciences.

*Call for Abstracts*

The abstract submission is now open for our (w/ @asheinze.bsky.social) special issue:

Party Youth Wings Across Europe: Organisation, Influence, and the Future of Party Democracy

We still have a few spots open (e.g. several countries in Southern Europe and CEE or the UK) 😊

📢 New in IMR. We often ask whether #refugees “integrate.” But what happens when the host society becomes hostile? I develop the concept of social marginalization and show that refugees in more #violent German counties report stronger feelings of exclusion and discrimination. doi.org/10.1177/0197...

Experimenting Towards the Energy Transition: How EU Member States Implement Experimentalist Governance Arrangements in European Renewable Energy Policy - Politische Vierteljahresschrift This article examines how member states of the European Union (EU) implement experimentalist governance arrangements designed to facilitate the transition towards renewable energy. Focussing on the 20...

How do EU members states implement experimentalist governance for the transition towards renewable energy?

Viktoria Brendler analyses this across Austria, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK.

Read it now, open access at PVS/GPSQ
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

📢 Our study (w @jessicakuhlm.bsky.social) on AfD success in integration council elections is now published in @pvs-journal.bsky.social

📖 doi.org/10.1007/s116...

👉Socioeconomic factors explain where the AfD runs, but not its success
❗Mainstream party competition is central to counter PRRP success

Very happy to see our new article “Reference groups and electoral behavior” (coauthored with Rune Stubager, Christoffer Hentzer Dausgaard & Michael Lewis-Beck) published!

Using ANES, DNES and AUTNES data, we show that liking or disliking social groups shapes vote choice.

If you have any questions, feel free to contact me. I am happy to help you throughout this process.

Grafik mit grauem Hintergrund und Schrift in weiß/beige/gelb. Unten rechts das DVPW-Logo in weiß. Text: Deutsche Vereinigung für Politikwissenschaft. Call for Proposals: PVS/GPSQ Special Issue 2027. Proposals should be preferably in English language, devoted to a topic of general interest to the discipline, relevant across different subfields. Send your proposal by 31 May 2026 to pvs-redaktion@dvpw.de.

‼️ The editorial board of @pvs-journal.bsky.social invites proposals for a special issue in 2027:

👉 www.dvpw.de/informatione...

Submit your proposals by 31 May 2026 to pvs-redaktion@dvpw.de

#CfP #PVS #GPSQ #PolSci #specialissue #Journal

A new open access paper in PVS with current relevance: How do different generations evaluate a potential coalition between the CDU/CSU and the LEFT?

by @wurthmann.bsky.social @kirareneekurz.bsky.social and @sarahwagner.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1007/s116...

Received: 24 October 2025
Revised version received: 18 December 2025
Accepted: 2 January 2026

👉 Submit to @pvs-journal.bsky.social for a quick turnaround.

Kudos to the handling editor, @martingross.bsky.social.

Blocking the Radical Right: Evidence from Strategic Candidate Voting Against the AfD in Germany’s 2025 Federal Election - Politische Vierteljahresschrift This paper examines strategic candidate voting against radical-right parties, focusing on the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany’s 2025 federal election. Germany has long been considered “hard g...

Do voters vote strategically to prevent the AfD from winning a direct mandate?
Short answer: yes. Long answer: read now in a new open access paper by Sven Hillen and @jessicakuhlm.bsky.social

link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Welcome to the party 🎉

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

Zur Landtagswahl Baden-Württemberg haben wir (@pluggedchris.bsky.social @marcdebus.bsky.social @nilssteiner.bsky.social T. Bräuninger) die Online-Wahlhilfe Party-Check entwickelt: party-check.org 🗳️
Neben einem Prozentmatch für diverse Themenbereiche gibt es eine Links-Rechts Verortung.
#ltwbw
1/

Interessant ist allerdings auch, dass dieses Ergebnis nicht daher kommt, dass junge Menschen die AfD besonders gut finden oder besonders häufig keine Partei antworten. Bei den jungen Menschen sie die Kompetenzzuschreibungen vor allem breiter verteilt.

What’s a multiverse good for anyway? Julia M. Rohrer, Jessica Hullman, and Andrew Gelman Multiverse analysis has become a fairly popular approach, as indicated by the present special issue on the matter. Here, we take one step back and ask why one would conduct a multiverse analysis in the first place. We discuss various ways in which a multiverse may be employed – as a tool for reflection and critique, as a persuasive tool, as a serious inferential tool – as well as potential problems that arise depending on the specific purpose. For example, it fails as a persuasive tool when researchers disagree about which variations should be included in the analysis, and it fails as a serious inferential tool when the included analyses do not target a coherent estimand. Then, we take yet another step back and ask what the multiverse discourse has been good for and whether any broader lessons can be drawn. Ultimately, we conclude that the multiverse does remain a valuable tool; however, we urge against taking it too seriously.

New preprint! So, what's a multiverse analysis good for anyway?>

With @jessicahullman.bsky.social and @statmodeling.bsky.social

juliarohrer.com/wp-content/u...

🚨 Join us for the next edition Summer School for Women* in Political Methodology in Mannheim 🚨

7 days of hands-on advanced methods + networking for PhDs, postdocs & early-career researchers.
Free of charge (limited travel support).

Deadline 1 March 2026: summerschoolwpm.org
#methodsky #polisky

Decoding German Politics with StateParl—A Text Corpus of Plenary Protocols in the 16 German Länder Parliaments - Politische Vierteljahresschrift The availability of large amounts of machine-readable text data has enabled political scientists to explore a variety of novel and innovative research questions. In this context, parliamentary documen...

Looking for speeches from all German state parliaments?

@cgnguyen.bsky.social , Eric Beltermann, Sabine Kropp & Antonios Souris have you covered.

Introducing the StateParl Corpus. Now open access with PVS:

doi.org/10.1007/s11615-025-00643-5

partycoloR is now on CRAN! Started as a simple idea 6 years ago, now it's a full-featured package. Extract party colors and logos from Wikipedia with one line of code. It's already powering ParlGov Dashboard.

install.packages("partycoloR")

🚨Happy to finally see this out in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social (with @leonardocarella.bsky.social)

⁉️ Does growing up when immigration is salient make people vote for parties they agree with on immigration *for the rest of their lives*?

doi.org/10.1017/S147...

⏳ 5 days left to apply!

4-year PhD position @stawi-univie.bsky.social @univie.ac.at
in a collegial & supportive department.

Focus: representation, party competition, political behavior, political institutions, political economy, or related.

Deadline: 28 Jan 26

jobs.univie.ac.at/job/Universi...

I am happy to announce that I have joined the team of Politische Vierteljahresschrift / German Political Science Quarterly @pvs-journal.bsky.social as Managing Editor alongside the new Editor-in-Chief Marc Debus. I will assist Marc and the team of Associate Editors in managing this great journal.

Bei uns wurde heute auch etwas zu wild fusioniert...

BJPolS abstract of a scholarly article discussing the influence of legislators' gender on the questioning behaviors in parliamentary activities.

NEW -

Gender Bias in Legislative Oversight: Do Parliamentarians Control Women Ministers More Tightly than Men Ministers? - https://cup.org/45Rm9Z6

- @corinnakroeber.bsky.social, @lenastephan.bsky.social, @sarahdingler.bsky.social & @camilamontero.bsky.social

#OpenAccess

Very cool plot, the January the February movement is quite interesting

The "smartphones/social media" discourse suffers from some amazing historical amnesia. There was no 2008 financial crisis and no global pandemic starting in 2020, it's all SCREENS SCREENS SCREENS. Major world events? Just the backdrop against which SCREENS happened.

Find the job ads below:
tinyurl.tools/54f3ff14
tinyurl.tools/40000e7c

Cover page of the article. "Affective States: Cultural and Affective Polarization in a Multilevel-Multiparty System" by Dylan Paltra, Marius Sältzer and Christian Stecker. "Affective Polarization—the growing mutual dislike among partisan groups—has been identified as a major concern in democracies. Although both economic and cultural ideological divides contribute to ideological polarization, their affective consequences can differ. This paper argues that cultural polarization becomes especially consequential when mobilized by far-right parties. Using data from 116 elections in Germany’s 16 states (1990-2023), we combine more than 550 state-level manifestos with more than 150,000 survey responses to examine how party polarization translates into voter affect. Our analyses show that both economic and cultural polarization increase affective divides, but cultural disagreements fuel hostility only in the presence of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Acting as a cultural entrepreneur, the AfD amplifies the emotional impact of cultural divisions such as immigration, employing affective rhetoric and provoking strong rejection from other parties and voters. These findings highlight the catalytic role of far-right parties in transforming ideological competition into affective polarization."

🚨Publication Alert!
My first first-author publication with @msaeltzer.bsky.social and @pluggedchris.bsky.social is out in @polbehavior.bsky.social, which began as my bachelor's thesis. We study how party polarization shapes affective polarization—with a particularly important role of the AfD. (1/7)🧵