Howard Schneider

Firewood in the American Economy: 1700 to 2010. Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

I love my firepit but some transitions can't be resisted. I am not sure how well many of us would do in an economy with a 30% firewood GDP....

Watch CNBC's full interview with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee CNBC’s Steve Liesman and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, impact of tariff uncertainty, rate path outlook, and mo...

@steveliesman.bsky.social did a bit of a reality check on the shadow fed notion with Goolsbee. Lots of sentiment pointing to more risk than reward for this idea. Markets are unpredictable. You have no vote, and you'd need to sway the Goolsbees of the world in place of the actual chair...

feels at once intuitive and impossible to fight...Is that the real singularity? if there's a curve from papyrus through Gutenberg to hexadecimal to whatever this is, where's the break from augmenting individuality?

I get the attraction of this idea…But if you become a “shadow chair” what can you do to actually influence outcomes? You have no vote; markets may put some weight on your words but will mostly care about outcomes; meanwhile you have x months to make mistakes….

No beehives at the Eccles building. Glad to clear that up.

Powell repeats rate cuts can wait as Fed studies tariff impacts U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday the central bank needs more time to see if rising tariffs drive inflation higher before considering the interest rate cuts that President Donald Trump is demanding.

Powell ahead of Fin Services committee hearing...rates going nowhere fast....tariff inflation still a risk....need more time to know the policy and know the effects.... #econsky

Powell is staying at the Fed, with Trump appointments possibly limited U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell begins two days of congressional testimony on Tuesday under fire from President Donald Trump for not cutting interest rates but with his status as head of the central bank seemingly secured from any presidential action by a Supreme Court ruling last month.

Powell's on the Hill today amid chatter about Trump naming a "shadow" chair. But naming someone and giving them months to make a misstep with markets or the senate seems risky...Meanwhile Fed rotation means the president may only have one more board appointment coming... #econsky

US Supreme Court says Fed is unique, easing worries over Trump's ability to fire Powell Trump has repeatedly lashed out at Jerome Powell and said he wants to see him gone from the central bank.

Liberation Day?

Exclusive: Fed's Barkin: No rush to cut, can't dismiss inflation risks from tariffs Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday there's no rush to cut interest rates given the still-unresolved risk that new import taxes might raise inflation, and with the U.S. job market and consumer spending holding up.

The other side of the bimodal FED….

Fed's Waller: Rate cuts should be considered by July given inflation data - CNBC The Federal Reserve should consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting given recent tame inflation data and the fact that any price shock from import tariffs will be short-lived, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday.

And meanwhile...Is this the shadow shadow rate? www.reuters.com/business/fed...

Trump's economic 'golden age' meets Fed's brass tacks Trump's promise that "the golden age of America begins right now" remains unfulfilled in the outlook of Federal Reserve officials who so far see his policies slowing the economy, raising unemployment and inflation, and clouding the horizon with a still-unresolved tariff debate.

Reality check or mark to market...either ways... www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...

AI and Social Media: A Political Economy Perspective Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

Well this I guess is not surprising but depressing still....The double polarization whammy from AI + social media from Nobel winner Acemoglu et al...

Fed to keep rates steady as tariffs, possible oil shock counter inflation data The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady next week, with investors focused on new central bank projections that will show how much weight policymakers are putting on recent soft data and how much risk they attach to unresolved trade and budget issues and an intensifying conflict in the Middle East.

Add a possible commodity shock to the Fed's list of arguments to stay on hold for now...Energy index falling for four months and now?? www.reuters.com/business/fed...

Fed minutes saw rising inflation, jobless risks as of May meeting U.S. Federal Reserve officials at their last meeting acknowledged they could face "difficult tradeoffs" in coming months in the form of rising inflation alongside rising unemployment, an outlook buttressed by Fed staff projections of increased risks of a recession, according to newly released minutes of the May 6-7 session.

The Fed May meeting (minutes released today) was overtaken fast by the China tariff climbdown. But the import may be a)they penciled in very deep effects and that remains a risk until the final tariff schedule is known...b)they took the market vol to heart even if they were not close to intervening.

Citizen Kale

Trump's tariff blitz prompts 'firefighting' response from Fed researchers U.S. Federal Reserve staffers have scrambled since January to decipher what Trump administration trade policies will mean for the economy, with published tallies of potential income losses, inflation estimates running as much as 2 percentage points higher, and breakdowns showing state-by-state winners and losers.

Some fun maps and varying estimates....Someday they will have actual numbers to use for estimation but for now laying the groundwork...

Was a time not too many years ago when Yellen and others talked about this as a thing -- find ways to destigmatize occupations in both directions...Don't here much about that anymore...BLS 10 yr job projections don't show the below trend slowing.....

Plan to beef up Fed forecasts hits hurdle among its regional presidents A proposal for the U.S. Federal Reserve to release detailed economic forecasts after some of its meetings to anchor the discussion of monetary policy is drawing fire from the heads of its regional banks who worry it will be hard to agree on a common outlook and risks further confusing the public.

Interesting how quick these folks piled on Bernanke’s proposal…and it will be interesting to see what they come up with as a substitute….

busted

is “no” allowed? there’s a reason they try to overlook commodities.

Powell's lean to job market under microscope as Fed revisits strategy With mounting evidence that tight labor markets do not necessarily boost inflation and facing massive job losses in 2020, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell oversaw a shift in U.S. central bank strategy that put more weight on the goal of full employment and pledged not to use a low jobless rate as a reason in itself to raise interest rates.

Baby, meet bathwater… Fed’s Powell oversaw a load of changes to their strategy. Inflation cast it all in a different light. Review is underway as
Powell enters his likely last year as chair….

they’ve all hit on variations of this theme…They are handcuffed until Trump decides what economic world we are living in….

Trump Declares High-Speed Internet Program ‘Racist’ and ‘Unconstitutional’

A lot of Trump signs in our part of SC that just now got fiber to the home…I will say that two Starlink accounts got ditched the next day in my extended family, and ATT fixed wireless lost some business also. Was the Rural Electrification Act also woke?

www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/u...

fiber optic to rural south carolina…goodbye att fixed and starlink…been cobbling from both for a long time

Households' Preferences Over Inflation and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs We document novel facts about US household preferences over inflation and monetary policy tradeoffs. Many households were attentive to news about monetary policy and to interest rates in 2023. The med...

From Cleveland Fed....Household willingness to trade unemployment for low inflation is pretty limited it turns out...Implies some politically challenging decisions ahead...

was he asked if he realized it’s an export?

Fed at a policy, political crossroads poses global risks Global central bankers who have come to view the U.S. Federal Reserve as a source of stability now face an unpredictable period where the Fed's monetary policy decisions are being pulled in conflicting directions and the institution's independence could be at risk.

Even if Trump doesn't try to fire Powell there's a transition coming to an institution that has been a mainstay of global finance... www.reuters.com/business/fin...

The Fed's foggy outlook Reuters charts, maps and graphics

And for those counting... www.reuters.com/graphics/USA...

Latest BBook from the Fed is about as close as you'll get to a blood bath in an institutional document...Pretty relentless -- even the bright spots are discounted with a dour outlook... www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli...

Dont know about other dads but I put the training wheels on and took them off when it was risk-appropriate. Meanwhile my wife had them galloping on horses without ever putting the training wheels on even. Every risky family is risky in its own way…