Paul Johnson

Labour should honour pledge on business rates and build from scratch The party was right to identify problems with the system, but in government has lacked the courage to introduce fundamental reforms

What a shame that the government isn’t doing what it said it would do in its manifesto. It should look at the whole system from scratch. It should decide what it is for, and whether it wants to favour particular kinds of business.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social

Still time to catch up on iPlayer!

PJ is too modest to describe how his team did on University Challenge on Christmas Eve. Catch it up on iPlayer:
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...

Is the UK prepared for a plunging birthrate and net emigration? We are already seeing schools struggling to attract enough children, but the consequences are a lot more serious than that

Here’s @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social on a similar theme. www.thetimes.com/article/332c...

Couverture de "Follow the Money - How Much Does Britain Cost?" de Paul Johnson (2023)

4️⃣ #AventLecture Paul Johnson, "Follow the Money - How Much Does Britain Cost?", 2023

Les défis économiques, sociaux et financiers du Royaume-Uni, pays qui a inventé le "welfare state"

@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social I was told "Read this book to better understand the UK", and it was a relevant advice!

'I don't think welfare spending is out of control. I think there is almost a moral panic about the level of welfare spending. If we look at the working-age benefit bill, it hasn't changed much over decades, if you look it as a fraction of national income.' @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social #c4news

It’s another conspiracy of silence. Conservatives don’t want to admit they massively increased taxes on high earners. Labour definitely don’t want to say so; they still want to peddle the idea that others, the rich, can pay more. Truth is if we want more spending we’ll all have to pay more.

Even more striking is that a quarter of employees will be higher rate tax payers by the end of the decade.

This is a really fundamental shift in the structure of the tax system.

Paul Johnson would actually like the economy to work better for all, to see incomes grow and social mobility expand. He supports effective pro-growth policies. He is less keen on posturing politicians who pretend they have simple solutions and whose policies would damage all the above.

Can we get @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social in charge of tax please. Why don’t the government listen to experts like him?

@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social Thank you for an excellent article in today's (20th September 2025) edition of the FT. A long-term overhaul and simplification of the UK's tax system is badly needed. #Reeves' kite flying of possible actions is both unprofessional and dangerous, isn't it?

Britain must break from the grip of dysfunctional policymaking Speculation over what might be in November’s Budget has left me depressed about our capacity for rational policies

Very well put by @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social
on.ft.com/4moc6Qw

What can Rachel Reeves learn from the 1970s IMF crisis? - UK in a changing Europe Paul Johnson reflects on the 1970s IMF crisis and the key parallels and differences between then and the current challenges the government...

"The Greens and Corbyn to the left and Reform to the right peddle utterly incoherent, populist economic policies yet are taking large shares in opinion polls."

✍️ @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social argues the solution to the UK's fiscal problems is political not technocratic

ukandeu.ac.uk/what-can-rac...

What can Rachel Reeves learn from the 1970s IMF crisis? - UK in a changing Europe Paul Johnson reflects on the 1970s IMF crisis and the key parallels and differences between then and the current challenges the government...

"The reality is, if they want more spending on welfare and public services, and they want economic growth, they are going to have to get serious about broad-based tax increases."

✍️ @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social gives his two pence on the government's growth problem

We need to move on from the dreadful stamp duty system The cost of moving crisis, which dates back to Gordon Brown, must end — and there’s an obvious solution for how to make things fairer

Stamp duty is not the only way in which our housing tax system is outrageously inefficient and inequitable: council tax is regressive, being charged at higher rates on less expensive properties.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social

We need fat cats in the public sector if we want the best policy Public sector pay is a fraction of what similar private sector roles command

interesting from @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social @thetimes.com (£) on the madness of remuneration in the public sector and the danger of false economies. www.thetimes.com/business-mon...

Pensions commission must resist being warned off triple lock It would be absurd to have a report on the future sustainability of the pension system without addressing this most fundamental of questions

sensible stuff on the "revived" Pensions Commission from @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social in @thetimes.com www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
Here's @instituteforgovernment.org.uk take on lessons this Pensions Commission should learn from its predecessor www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/new-...

Thanks Matt. I too can recommend @samfr.bsky.social great book. Glad you like mine too.

NEW PODCAST: How to fix UK pensions?

@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social is joined by Carl Emmerson and @laurenceobrien.bsky.social to discuss whether people in the UK will be able to afford a decent standard of living in retirement.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

Quote from IFS Associate Director Tom Waters: "These changes more than halve the saving of the package of reforms as a whole, making the Chancellor’s already difficult Budget balancing act that much harder. The decision is to protect existing health-related benefit claimants from the reforms, thereby making the savings entirely from new claimants to these benefits. This will create big differences – thousands of pounds a year, for many years in some cases – between similar people with similar health conditions who happen to have applied at a slightly different time."

NEW: Changes to health-related benefit reforms would reduce saving from the planned bill by £3 billion in 2029–30, but would create a huge difference in support between claimants.

Read Tom Waters, @eduinlatimer.bsky.social and Matt Oulton's new briefing here: ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...

Climbdown on benefit changes will hit public finances by c£3bn. Adds to Chancellor's problems, but not huge. Real problem is this, plus climbdown on winter fuel payments, suggests govt can't make any cuts to spending. With no fiscal headroom leaves taxes as only margin of adjustment.

No 10 gags civil servants to stop them speaking out in public Senior officials are told not to make unvetted comments, leading to events being cancelled and claims of a chilling effect on free speech

"Chilling", "heavy handed", "misguided", "astonishing and unworkable" just some of the comments.

Having worked in and with civil service for a long time I can confirm all of those. We need more, not less, open engagement of civil service in policy discussion.

www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

The government should not ban public servants from speaking in public | Institute for Government New guidance will damage the quality of government and public discourse.

Frankly outrageous from the govt. This new, and I think unprecedented, ban on civil servants speaking in public will damage public debate, politics, policy making and the civil service itself.

What are they thinking?

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/gove...

IfG banner for an event titled 'The Expert Factor Live' on Monday 23 June, 18.00-19.00. Speakers: - Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies - Anand Menon, Director of UK in a Changing Europe - Dr Hannah White, Director and CEO at the Institute for Government

TONIGHT: The Expert Factor Live! 🎧🚨

Join us at 18:00 for a special live recording of The Expert Factor, the podcast for people who haven’t had enough of experts.

With @drhannahwhite.bsky.social @anandmenon.bsky.social @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/expert...

I chatted to @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social about the major problems in the Crown Court: what’s gone wrong, and how can we fix it? Have a listen to find out!

Loved speaking with @benansell.bsky.social about our poor productivity growth and what we should do about it. Do listen.

We had far too much fun recording this. Perhaps the effects of sleep deprivation. Do have a listen

Very striking this. Spending on the new childcare entitlement is turning out to be much greater than expected. What we don't know is whether this is because more parents have been tempted into work, or are just substituting for informal childcare

Expanding the welfare state is an expensive business