It feels like including the ALP in these polls is getting increasingly irresponsible. They contested *13* seats in 2023!
06.03.2026 19:15
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It feels like including the ALP in these polls is getting increasingly irresponsible. They contested *13* seats in 2023!
BIG lead for Alex Holladay in the early vote in the Arkansas #HD70 (Harris+2) special election. Very much on track for a flip for the Dems here tonight in suburban Little Rock
Has someone gamed out all the possibilities for the 4th place race if Homan wins both games? i.e. are there scenarios where Canada would lose a tiebreaker?
The GOP just had its best chance to finally flip a legislative seat in Trump 2.0. Democrats had other ideas.
Chasity Martinez just won a rural Trump+13 in the Louisiana House in a 24-point landslide—an overperformance of 37 points.
Our complete writeup on this remarkable outcome -->
Because they want to make beautiful art
By this point in Trump 1.0, the GOP had flipped 4 legislative seats from Democrats in specials (LA-HD42, NJ-SD02, MS-SD10, & MA-SD-Worcester & Middlesex) while Democrats had 35 flips (the majority of those being VA & NJ regular election flips).
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
BREAKING: Texas Democrat Taylor Rehmet just won a *massive* landslide to flip a deep-red Senate district. He's up by 14 points in a Trump+17 seat—an overperformance of more than 30 points.
How did he do it? Here's our full writeup:
What would happen if Trump tried to send troops to disrupt the midterms? Undaunted voters in the Twin Cities just gave us an answer: It could backfire very, very badly.
New from The Downballot: A wild overperformance in St. Paul shows Minnesotans will "crawl over broken glass" to vote—despite ICE.
LOL. Despite this being a Harris+71 seat, Democrat Meg Luger-Nikolai won tonight by a *91-point* margin. Easily one of the wildest overperformances we’ve ever seen, given the district’s deep, deep blue lean.
one takeaway from the grok noncon porn thing is that much of the media just isn't interested in an issue they can't pretend has two sides or that doesn't give them an opportunity to shit on the left. Also it would be uncomfortable to justify remaining on twitter after acknowledging it
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It appears that vote-counting may be done in KY. If so, it's an astounding *42-point* overperformance for Democrat Gary Clemons, a union leader and Army vet. This district moved to the right last year, from Biden+10 to Harris+5, but the GOP never seriously contested it.
Big Board updated -->
Image of Indiana Republicans’ attempted new congressional gerrymander that was designed to turn their currently gerrymandered 7-to-2 majority into a 9-to-0 majority. An accompanying chart displays the 2024 presidential results for each district. Every district is a shade of medium to dark red, and five districts crack the Indianapolis metropolitan area to prevent the heavily Democratic city and its suburbs from electing a Democrat or two. Two districts also split the Democratic-leaning northwest along Lake Michigan by combining the region with rural areas further south and east.
BREAKING: Indiana Republicans FAILED to pass a new 9-0 congressional gerrymander after enough GOP senators sided with Dems. The GOP's 7-2 map stays in place.
Trump is trying to re-gerrymander maps nationwide. At least 11 Indiana Rs got death threats after he called for primaries—but it still failed
BREAKING: Democrats have flipped a conservative state House seat in Georgia in yet another upset.
It's a 14-point overperformance *and* the 25th legislative flip of the year for Dems. Republicans? Zero.
Read our complete writeup here -->
Some (more) very big Dem overperformances on the Big Board tonight so far:
FL-SD-11: Republicans hold deep-red district, but Dems overperform by 22 pts
FL-HD-90: Dems hold blue-leaning district, outperforming 2024 by 17 and, perhaps more importantly, beating 2020 by 6
It's good—very good, and very important—that district courts keep issuing these 100-page rulings upholding the law. It must be incredibly dispiriting to see them overturned in a two-page, lawless, unsigned order, but please, keep them coming. They expose SCOTUS' corruption like nothing else.
Guy who only remembers #OH02, watching a special election in 2025: "Getting some #OH02 vibes from this..."
A "live long enough to see yourself become the villain" type of moment for her, I imagine.
Zohran's latest sin: Being too likeable.
Fascinating poll from @the-downballot.com!
And I've gotta say, The Downballot has a best-in-class #Substack. Definitely worth a subscription, or at least a #BlueSky follow!
They cover all elections, from Chuck Schumer primary challenges to Katie Wilson for Seattle mayor. They'll keep you informed!
"Hey Jimmy! Gimme a pizza and holda Solis!"
I dunno! Cheap Trick eventually kicked Bun E. Carlos out of the touring band... they had a good run, though.
After racking up decisive wins across the country last week, how can Democrats keep up the momentum at the ballot box next year, when Congress will be on the line?
An exclusive poll for The Downballot offers an answer.
What I want from each and every one of you is a hard target search of every state house, senate, school board, county legislature, coroner's office, residence, farmhouse, henhouse, outhouse and doghouse in the United States including all of its territories. Your fugitive's name is Donald J. Trump.
They're cooked.