Fabio E. Tonti's Avatar

Fabio E. Tonti

@tontief

Absentee mathematician gone teaching. Aspiring statistician. Original AndOrNot_robot. Stats & maths education.

254
Followers
536
Following
184
Posts
26.09.2023
Joined
Posts Following

Latest posts by Fabio E. Tonti @tontief

That's why I'm so against ChatGPT. I'm against letting a machine do your homework for you. I think you should cling to Doing Your Homework Yourself like it's the last opportunity you have to liberate yourself from mental enslavement. Because it basically is.

Anyway shout out to Kai Cenat.

15.01.2026 02:18 πŸ‘ 1375 πŸ” 200 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 2

I think a lot of us millennials & older really take it for granted that we were the last of only a couple generations where there was an all-encompassing campaign to encourage literacy. Everyone used to agree upon it. There were commercials with your favorite celebrities just being like, "READ!"

15.01.2026 02:18 πŸ‘ 2292 πŸ” 523 πŸ’¬ 37 πŸ“Œ 77

I really like Devezer's comments. Unfortunately couldn't keep myself from reading the original substack post:
Going to "These are solvable engineering and institutional design problems"
from "How do we verify AI-generated claims at scale?"
is just... I honestly don't have a word for that.

03.03.2026 17:46 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

2. Of course we should hold AI to the highest standards. That doesn't imply double standards because we can treat AI as technology without anthropomorphizing it and we primarily conceptualize science as a human endeavor. The two can be subjected to different standards. It's normal, not at all weird.

03.03.2026 15:14 πŸ‘ 59 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Really super legible 🀯
(I assume it can also be used in less optimal ways...)

25.02.2026 20:56 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Exactly this. Burning a generation for some weird company bets.

25.02.2026 07:14 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I'm constantly trying (/failing) to get this point across.

If you're a trained expert in a field, then it may be worthwhile to question the scientific consensus of your peers.

If you're not, the scientific consensus is absolutely the best you can do and it's arbitrary foolishness to disregard it.

24.02.2026 16:04 πŸ‘ 3760 πŸ” 853 πŸ’¬ 54 πŸ“Œ 50

These seminars are always worth it, and what's fantastic on top: when you have to suddenly run halfway through a talk the recordings are freely available!

23.02.2026 13:29 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Longevity influencers tell millions to take rapamycin, sit in hyperbaric oxygen chambers, blast themselves with red light therapy, and take 50+ supplements daily.

Meanwhile something that cuts dementia risk by 20% is invisible.

overmatter.substack.com/p/your-anti-...

18.02.2026 18:08 πŸ‘ 64 πŸ” 21 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2

Saving this for teaching...

15.02.2026 08:31 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
The Joy of Coupling
The Joy of Coupling YouTube video by Almost Sure

New YouTube video posted

β€œThe Joy of Coupling”

Happy Valentine’s Day!

youtu.be/rpW2ZYtXn6o?...

14.02.2026 16:11 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2
Preview
Model to Meaning: How to Interpret Statistical Models with R and Python Published in Journal of the American Statistical Association (Just accepted, 2026)

"Model to Meaning" just received a super generous review in JASA.

Check it out! (I'm blushing 😊)

Reminder: You can get the paper copy from CRC, and the full **free** version will remain online forever at marginaleffects.com

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

12.02.2026 16:25 πŸ‘ 76 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 0

Oh wow thx heaps!

12.02.2026 17:33 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

*didn't

12.02.2026 17:28 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Did manage to find it, could you tell me the title? Or is it just in that volume?

12.02.2026 17:28 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

Neyman is my hero

12.02.2026 16:07 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
Screenshot one of three describe a new pair of R and Python packages demonstrating easy object interchange between R and Python.

Screenshot one of three describe a new pair of R and Python packages demonstrating easy object interchange between R and Python.

Screenshot two of three describe a new pair of R and Python packages demonstrating easy object interchange between R and Python.

Screenshot two of three describe a new pair of R and Python packages demonstrating easy object interchange between R and Python.

Screenshot three of three describe a new pair of R and Python packages demonstrating easy object interchange between R and Python.

Screenshot three of three describe a new pair of R and Python packages demonstrating easy object interchange between R and Python.

chronometre: A new package (pair) demo for R and Python
Efficient yet simple object exchange between R and Python
dirk.eddelbuettel.com/blog/2026/02...
#rstats #rcpp #python #datascience

08.02.2026 18:16 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Google with AI buttons

Google with AI buttons

Google without AI buttons

Google without AI buttons

I made a filterlist for uBlock Origin to remove Generative AI features on websites. Includes blocks for
* Google AI Summaries
* YouTube Ask button & chat summaries
* GitHub Copilot
* Facebook AI chat
* X's Grok buttons
* Deviantart DreamUp
* Booru AI images
* And more

github.com/Stevoisiak/S...

03.02.2026 00:30 πŸ‘ 23326 πŸ” 11638 πŸ’¬ 287 πŸ“Œ 229
Preview
Assessing Treatment Effects in Observational Data With Missing Confounders: A Comparative Study of Practical Doubly‐Robust and Traditional Missing Data Methods In pharmacoepidemiology, safety and effectiveness are frequently evaluated using readily available administrative and electronic health records data. In these settings, detailed confounder data are o...

It lives! πŸŽ‰
dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim....
Quite some time ago I mentioned the arxiv version of this paper comparing imputation, raking, and TMLE in a reasonably large set of simulations, by authors including moderately strong partisans of the various approaches.

04.02.2026 20:34 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Screenshot from Rotten Tomatoes showing 12 actual reviews panning the Melania movie while '99% score' on Popcornmeter smelling of astroturfing campaign

Screenshot from Rotten Tomatoes showing 12 actual reviews panning the Melania movie while '99% score' on Popcornmeter smelling of astroturfing campaign

As Rotten Tomatoes might be getting astroturfed, a quick quiz:
- Amazon paid $40 million to make it
- Amazon paying $35 million to promote it
- Amazon own IMDB
What is going to be the opening score at IMDB?

31.01.2026 02:58 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

Everytime some asshole starts taking about how "EU regulation stifles innovation", this is the kind of stuff they are hoping to enable.

30.01.2026 13:51 πŸ‘ 22 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Then prove it!! Where is the evidence!? Where are the evaluations!?

28.01.2026 20:41 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Fantastic talk, a must see!

26.01.2026 19:14 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Info, schedule, and recordings: cls-data.github.io/CIIG/
Join mailing list: www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi-bin/wa-j...

20.01.2026 12:35 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

If you are interested in all things ✨causal inference✨, please join our multidisciplinary Causal Inference Interest Group (CIIG). We host monthly seminars featuring speakers with various academic backgrounds and research interests.

Links below.

cc @clscohorts.bsky.social @pwgtennant.bsky.social

20.01.2026 12:35 πŸ‘ 47 πŸ” 29 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

Woah terrible, glad to be on Fedora here.... Also good description on how to think of a quick local fix.

25.01.2026 15:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I think that the mass enthusiasm we see around gen AI is manufactured, and I think this because it doesn't exist for renewable energy, despite it being more measurably impactful (and also technologically wonderous)

17.01.2026 22:39 πŸ‘ 50 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 15 πŸ“Œ 1
Simulation and CLT - Biased and Inefficient

In which I look at simulations to see how well a Normal distribution fits something, but with complications
notstatschat.rbind.io/2026/01/05/s...

05.01.2026 21:47 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Can send you the high-res version! It's 1907, Author is G. Freytag, it shows voting in the Austrian-Hungarian monarchy.

22.12.2025 07:19 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

This smells distinctly like collider bias and/or selection bias and/or regression to the mean... You simply can't select teen prodigies, and world class athletes rom databases, and go run regressions without serious consideration of the selection process!

20.12.2025 15:48 πŸ‘ 340 πŸ” 68 πŸ’¬ 23 πŸ“Œ 13