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Steve Cicala

@stevecicala

Associate Professor Tufts University Department of Economics https://www.stevecicala.com http://goingelectric.substack.com

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24.05.2023
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Latest posts by Steve Cicala @stevecicala

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What Does Russia Have on Trump? Americans Deserve an Answer As Russia reportedly shares intelligence with Iran that could endanger American forces, the White House chooses to ease pressure on Moscow instead of confronting it.

Ukraine offers to help defend the West from Iranian drones.

Russia helps Iran track American forces.

And the White House eases sanctions on Russian oil.

Explain that to the families of U.S. troops. My latest:
open.substack.com/pub/adamkinz...

06.03.2026 17:44 πŸ‘ 3791 πŸ” 1414 πŸ’¬ 187 πŸ“Œ 68

I have never been prouder of my star alliance affiliation.

Next up: public transit.

06.03.2026 01:02 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Well it's clear PoliSci is toast.

05.03.2026 21:40 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I said, "Add labels" and decided the output was good enough for bsky.

05.03.2026 21:35 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

There's no glory in toppling minions.

With the possible exception of RFK Jr, Stephen Miller and Russel Vought are the only members of this administration with any agency.

05.03.2026 19:59 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Slope: β‰ˆ 0.477, R^2: 0.228. (Again, GPT)

05.03.2026 17:00 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Here's the (chatGPT-extracted & compiled) plot of "Total Bad" vs support for that country's right-wing party. Raw data in the alt-txt.

05.03.2026 16:57 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Trump Is Expected to Endorse Cornyn Republican strategists hope the endorsement will make the Texas Senate race less expensive and less competitive.

The easiest money in political advertising today has got to be round-the-clock ads on Fox News in the Miami market with anti-Trump quotes from John Cornyn.

www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...

05.03.2026 13:06 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

EU foreign policy is a mess because the Lisbon Treaty is a mess. Hence EU β€œhigh rep” title not EU β€œforeign minister.” Member states want the EU to be strong and speak with one voice but hesitate to make the trade: control (sovereignty) for strength. And the end result is they get neither.

05.03.2026 11:41 πŸ‘ 67 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 2

Your taxes?

I'd be willing to decimate the white collar economy if it means nuking Intuit.

04.03.2026 18:48 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Man, all the neo-cons who went through that whole charade to pretend Saddam was an existential threat must feel like they were cheated.

02.03.2026 02:30 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The constitution gives congress the authority to declare war.

But a certain brand of executive can declare a β€œspecial military operation.”

02.03.2026 02:23 πŸ‘ 144 πŸ” 27 πŸ’¬ 14 πŸ“Œ 3
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My latest with @cato.org’s Clark Packard: foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/26/t...

26.02.2026 20:08 πŸ‘ 140 πŸ” 34 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2
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Americans Are Leaving the U.S. in Record Numbers More citizens are replanting overseas, drawn by a quality of life made easily affordable by the U.S.’s enviable salaries.

This article does a nice job raising the longer-run issues that are driving people away from the US: health care and housing costs, guns. I'd also include terrible urban planning that prioritizes cars.

Trump leaving doesn't fix this, and neither does Dem price controls.

www.wsj.com/us-news/amer...

26.02.2026 18:32 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

No, that these are two completely unrelated issues:

T&D investment has been bonkers, and is rate regulated. Lowering ROE will help reign that in, and lower bills.

Lowering regulated ROE won't deter gen investment, because that's overwhelmingly deregulated. It's being held up by different forces.

24.02.2026 23:01 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Connecting some more specific comments to the main thread:

bsky.app/profile/stev...

24.02.2026 22:55 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

There are *definitely* problems with generation investment--but it's mostly that generators that want to connect are being prevented from doing so.

This has *NOTHING* to do with keeping ROE high to encourage investment. Generation investment is deregulated, and it's banging to get in.

24.02.2026 22:33 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

- Utilities engage in much of the shenanigans that prevent entry, transmission, etc. Proposing that they might be the *solution* to the problem is like saying we'd repair distrust of Wall St. by making Bernie Madoff Treasury Secretary.

24.02.2026 22:24 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

- US GDP is up ~45% since the GR. Electricity consumption is basically flat. The quantity is determined in equilibrium, it's not welfare, and the comparison with China is just too dumb to critique.

24.02.2026 22:24 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Putting aside the kinds of in-the-weeds stuff specialists would object to:
- Lowering ROE reduces the price, and demand curves slope down. This isn't `degrowth' stuff.
- T&D is now like 2/3 of the bill. It's grown astronomically, and is *universally* rate regulated. This has nothing to do with gen.

24.02.2026 22:24 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

For some more publicly-readable thoughts on permitting and T&D reforms here are a couple of pieces from me:

www.stevecicala.com/papers/EPIC/...

www.stevecicala.com/papers/energ...

24.02.2026 20:27 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Energy Institute Blog Research that Informs Business and Public Policy

Here are some resources for the interested reader:

Always, the @ucenergyinstitute.bsky.social blog:
energyathaas.wordpress.com

24.02.2026 20:27 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes, utility regulation is tedious, technical and (to some) boring. That's a reason to understand the underlying forces before diagnosing the problem.

Perhaps we should go back to vertically integrated utilities bc China is producing more power! WTF kind of logic is that? Tom Friedman would blush.

24.02.2026 20:27 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

In an effort to make bsky a place where people come to read dunks based on substance rather than scolds for not adhering to some liberal orthodoxy:

This is pretty dumb.

24.02.2026 20:27 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 0

Not that it’s a competition but I was supposed to fly back to BOS yesterday, changed my flight to tomorrow (24hr after the storm), it was cancelled, and now I’ll get back on early *Saturday* morning.

Traveling with a toddler.

Send thoughts and prayers.

24.02.2026 05:03 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
kalshi market crashes after oral arguments

kalshi market crashes after oral arguments

Post image Post image

The markets are not "muted" in response to tariffs--they've already priced much of it in:
- Prediction markets fell 25% after oral arguments.
- The firms hardest hit by tariff announcement largely recovered after arguments.
- Looking forward, new tariffs are anticipated.

20.02.2026 18:15 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Every. Single. Time.

19.02.2026 21:24 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio

Here's the link to apply:
apply.interfolio.com/181448

18.02.2026 19:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I held out with the iPhone SE as long as I could until the mini came out. It has been good, and I’ll keep replacing when necessary with the 13 mini until Apple makes another phone-sized phone.

18.02.2026 13:25 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0