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Neal Hudson

@resi-analyst

UK housing market analyst. Personal account. Analysis and commentary at https://builtplace.com/ Visiting Fellow at Henley Business School. Columnist for FT Weekend’s Money.

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Latest posts by Neal Hudson @resi-analyst

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Some but not many did lock in a ten-year in 2022. (>5yr purple bars is mostly ten-year).

06.03.2026 10:02 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Friend of a friend (I know!) effectively had a negative rate in a similar situation. Was treated as 0% and I understand the lender spent a lot of time and money trying to convince them to move off it.

06.03.2026 09:59 👍 7 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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How the UK mortgage market became so unstable The market has not been this jittery in decades — and that was before the Middle East conflict

Locked in a rate on Tuesday morning as my five-year fix ends in May. Wrote about it this week: www.ft.com/content/08b2...

06.03.2026 09:44 👍 12 🔁 1 💬 3 📌 0
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How the UK mortgage market became so unstable The market has not been this jittery in decades — and that was before the Middle East conflict

How the UK mortgage market became so unstable ft.trib.al/i4VlNCh | opinion

05.03.2026 05:40 👍 14 🔁 7 💬 1 📌 0

The cities on that map are all over the place!
Truro is clearly wrong but Bristol and Bath also look slightly off.

04.03.2026 12:53 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Someone I knew at school moved there probably about 20 years ago. Looked him up online the other day and most hits were about a court battle between him and his dad on the ownership of a villa on the palm and luxury cars.

04.03.2026 12:28 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Yeah, my son can't play contact sports (eyesight issue) but is very into climbing - a sport that appears to have an injury profile similar to those who do very heavy manual labour.

04.03.2026 10:57 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

I went to one of the games at the Rec during the pandemic when there were only about 3,000 of us watching and the sound of the tackles was something I'll never forget.

(it has made me question whether I should be supporting something that is clearly doing damage to the players)

04.03.2026 09:25 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

It's even more unlikely if you accept their mortgage rate forecast (which looks ludicrously under-optimistic!)

03.03.2026 14:24 👍 2 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0

That Alphaville piece quotes from my 2017 report on missing movers.

thinkhouse.org.uk/site/assets/...

01.03.2026 13:40 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

Covered it in my report on first-time buyers for the building societies association (pg 19) a couple of years ago (& in earlier reports). Though hasn’t stopped their members using the phrase in press releases!
www.bsa.org.uk/information/...

01.03.2026 13:26 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Oh definitely, that’s just an extreme example. It’s immensely frustrating that so much of the market and government’s narrative is about “getting on the ladder”. But it does sound like the buying public is learning its lesson given first-time buyers are buying bigger and largely avoiding flats

01.03.2026 13:21 👍 9 🔁 1 💬 4 📌 0

Especially when it’s then used as a reason to encourage first-time buyers to purchase new build flats in London.

01.03.2026 13:14 👍 9 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Haven’t looked at mortgaged movers but the premium in first-time buyer incomes vs average earnings is largely due to joint income borrowers and London/South of England.
Chart here compares incomes to regional average earnings for all first-time buyers and those just borrowing with a single income

01.03.2026 12:47 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Data is here!

www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...

01.03.2026 12:41 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Looking at the data source, it will be borrower based so a mix of single and joint incomes. The jump is 2005 is a change in the data rather than anything meaningful.

01.03.2026 12:34 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
So, what is it the government hopes to achieve by building 1.5million homes? It is still not clear but having a framework for success would enable them to answer this question and help them make the appropriate policy decisions to tackle the challenges highlighted above. The forthcoming “long-term housing strategy” should provide some clarity though there have been few details so far and deciding the outcomes after committing to the process is all a bit back-to-front.

The result of racing to meet the 1.5million target with no clear statement on what outcomes are desired comes with severe risks. It risks us ending up with a new build market that is focussed on delivering numbers as quickly as possible to the exclusion of all other metrics and is enabled by deregulation, tax cuts, and subsidies. That will inevitably lead to housing outcomes that compromise on quality, safety, environmental protections, and the needs of the actual residents. That doesn’t look like success to me, and it shouldn’t to this Government either.

So, what is it the government hopes to achieve by building 1.5million homes? It is still not clear but having a framework for success would enable them to answer this question and help them make the appropriate policy decisions to tackle the challenges highlighted above. The forthcoming “long-term housing strategy” should provide some clarity though there have been few details so far and deciding the outcomes after committing to the process is all a bit back-to-front. The result of racing to meet the 1.5million target with no clear statement on what outcomes are desired comes with severe risks. It risks us ending up with a new build market that is focussed on delivering numbers as quickly as possible to the exclusion of all other metrics and is enabled by deregulation, tax cuts, and subsidies. That will inevitably lead to housing outcomes that compromise on quality, safety, environmental protections, and the needs of the actual residents. That doesn’t look like success to me, and it shouldn’t to this Government either.

Wrote this a year ago on Labour's missing housing strategy
(we're still waiting for it!)
builtplace.com/still-search...

27.02.2026 07:08 👍 4 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

One of the many depressing things this year was realising that there is no clear strategy across the whole of government and not just with housing.
(1.5m new homes is a target, not a strategy)

10.10.2025 08:43 👍 58 🔁 10 💬 1 📌 0

Last visited DC right after playing Fallout 3 and it didn’t take much imagination to see the metro as it appeared in the game.

25.02.2026 15:15 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

I've learnt to copy and paste the charts as images on the slides when doing a presentation in a different location.
(moving legends is another reason)

25.02.2026 09:53 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0

Already seeing some student developments getting converted (both pre and post construction).
Had a bit of a thread going last year: bsky.app/profile/resi...

25.02.2026 06:45 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Who's the billionaire behind London’s biggest mass eviction? He's the London philanthropist who says he's committed to solving homelessness. So why is Asif Aziz's Criterion Capital rushing to make hundreds of Londoners homeless in the coming weeks?

London’s “worst mass eviction in recent history” is underway; hundreds of households across London told to get out of their homes this week by the same landlord, ahead of the renters rights act. The landlord? Billionaire Asif Aziz’s Criterion Capital. www.londoncentric.media/p/asif-aziz-...

22.02.2026 07:53 👍 1030 🔁 814 💬 59 📌 160
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Also probably unrelated as not UPRNs but the FCA's mortgage product sales data saw a big change in regional data when they shifted from using PAF to ONSPD to assign regions last year.

17.02.2026 08:49 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

A rainy day is how we started indoor climbing.
Keeps them entertained and tires them out but, in my experience, it ends up with you waking up early on a Sunday to drive them for 3hrs of training sessions an hour away.

15.02.2026 10:35 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0

Without wishing to minimise the issues highlighted in this piece, I think the chart below understates housing starts in London compared to other cities - I know @jburnmurdoch.ft.com will have tried to compare like with like, but it's fundamentally very difficult.

13.02.2026 16:13 👍 7 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0

As long as you let us keep Ted Hill and Ollie Lawrence then I’m happy for you!

13.02.2026 11:51 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Supporting Scotland in rugby will quickly teach you not to dwell on it!

13.02.2026 11:38 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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New homes: even if you build them, there’s no one to buy them We’re often told housing demand exceeds supply — so why are new homes struggling to be built and bought?

It's a massive factor, esp given the historic reliance on off-plan sales to investors just to unlock the finance to purchase the land and start construction. No market demand = no new homes under current delivery models.

Covered it in my article last year www.ft.com/content/9080...

13.02.2026 10:13 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 1

I suspect the ratio of 118 to 217 for completions is not applicable to starts

13.02.2026 07:48 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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For example: Molior data, just covering private 20+ unit sites, reports 5,547 starts in 2025.

13.02.2026 07:45 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0