As someone who spent years working on this problem set, I highly recommend @charleslister1.bsky.social's "Syria's Al-Hol Camp comes to an end, but not the way anyone intended"
open.substack.com/pub/syriawee...
EXCLUSIVE -- "#Syria's Al-Hol Camp comes to an end..."
My latest provides a window into how everything fell apart in al-Hol over the past 4 weeks, with *lots* of exclusive details unreported elsewhere.
www.syriaweekly.com/p/exclusive-...
NEW for the Middle East Institute:
- “#Syria is stabilizing, but US help remains vital.”
Based on exclusive data, the trends of stabilization over the past 14 months are all clear, but to sustain & improve further, the U.S. will remain vital.
mei.edu/publication/...
FREE for all readers.
This week's #SyriaWeekly newsletter catches you up on everything that's developed in/around #Syria & its transition over the past 7 days.
Want this every week -- along with video briefings & data analysis?
Make sure to subscribe:
www.syriaweekly.com/p/free-syria...
NEW -- 10 Takeaways from #Trump's Opening to #Syria.
There's lots to unpack analytically from a sudden & major opening for post #Assad #Syria.
Read here: www.syriaweekly.com/p/10-takeawa...
This week was hugely significant for #Syria's new gov't -- with official visits to #WashingtonDC & #NewYork resulting in a surge in diplomacy, new finance deals & investment openings.
#SyriaWeekly covers every meeting & outcome:
www.syriaweekly.com/p/syria-week...
Since I started #SyriaWeekly 10 months ago, I've been blown away by the interest.
With ~50,000 views per month, we have subscribers in 109 countries around the world, including officials from 41 governments.
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In the last 4 months of #Assad's rule, an average of 68 people were killed *every week* in acts of violence.
In the last 4 weeks, the average has been 49.
Last week was 24.
www.syriaweekly.com/p/weekly-dat...
NEW #SyriaWeekly -- Ahmed al-Sharaa travels to #Turkey, #UAE & #Qatar; #Saudi pays off #Syria's World Bank debts; Ahmed al-Awda's 8th Brigade dissolves in #Daraa; and #SDF-#Damascus de-escalation continues.
All the details & much more: www.syriaweekly.com/p/syria-week...
NEW -- #Syria's gov't started work this week, with a new Central Bank governor, ambassador reshuffles & a surge in #Druze engagement in #Suwayda.
#SyriaWeekly covers everything, in the latest newsletter:
Subscribe: www.syriaweekly.com/p/syria-week...
NEW -- #SyriaWeekly's latest data updates show armed violence increased 16% across #Syria over the past week.
Plus tracking actions by pro-#Assad insurgents, #ISIS, #Israel & kidnappings & UXO incidents.
www.syriaweekly.com/p/weekly-dat...
It's been an overwhelming trip across #Syria & this 🧵 offers just a snapshot & a few opening thoughts. More will come in the next days & weeks.
Ultimately, #Syria feels like it's being reborn from more than 50yrs of hell. It deserves our help to recover.
At the end of the day, the effects of #Syria's 13+yrs of conflict can't be understated -- the destruction, the death, the missing, the debilitating economic collapse, the humanitarian crisis...
The list of needs is immeasurable & the clock is ticking.
#Aleppo is a completely different experience to #Damascus -- much, much quieter & almost no air pollution.
Locals were universally thrilled at #Assad's departure and hopeful that despite the SYP's challenges, the local economy was recovering its confidence.
But this balancing act isn't easy. He needs to broaden his cabinet & while there are plans to do so, some within his #HTS base are *sharply* opposed.
While most sanctions remain, his base is also questioning if his pragmatism is working with external actors.
The clear success resulting from his pragmatic posture has won him significant popular support -- I saw repeatedly people trying to sell revolutionary flags with his face on them, even though they've been made illegal.
He's become a celebrity, as has his wife.
In #Damascus, Ahmed al-Sharaa has a complex balance to tow -- with jihadi factions in #Idlib, military hardliners in the command, #Syria's diverse social fabric & the international community.
It's an almost impossible challenge, getting harder by the day.
#Suwayda's main armed factions - Rijal al-Karama & Ahrar Jabal - were invited to Ahmed al-Sharaa's Jan 29 victory speech, but weren't told what it was for. They left before entering, after discovering its purpose.
#Druze-#SDF contact is constant & high-level.
A visit to #Suwayda served as a reminder of the governorate's unique status -- no checkpoints, almost no destruction, a thriving civil society & a clear desire to maintain its special status in the new #Syria.
Trust in #HTS was low, but there was respect.
Sanctions, sanctions, sanctions.
I can't understate the centrality of this issue, as #Syria celebrates freedom & yearns to recover. External restrictions make no sense, burn trust & risk triggering serious unrest & eventually, a new chapter of conflict.
I met countless Syrian businessmen desperate to invest, who insisted that US waivers made little practical difference to their ability to do so.
Regional states' desire to invest even more have also slowed, prompted by concerns of #Trump's unknown position.
While the euphoria resulting from #Assad's fall continues to feed Syrian patience amid economic collapse & humanitarian struggles, that patience won't last forever.
Sanctions remain *THE* obstacle to an urgent need for economic investment & gradual recovery.
Despite #HTS effectively running the show in #Damascus, almost everyone I spoke to was supportive of the caretaker government -- and *especially* of Ahmed al-Sharaa. His "soft" & "patriotic" rhetoric has clearly won him a huge expansion of respect & support.
The caretaker gov't - with #Turkey's backing - is determined to take the fight to #ISIS, takeover management of the prisons & camps and to rehabilitate & resettle 1,000s of Syrians in al-Hol.
"At least 8" #ISIS plots have been foiled since Jan 1, I was told.
The US military also green-lighted the Syrian Free Army's (based in al-Tanf) attendance at Ahmed al-Sharaa's Jan 29 "victory" speech to military factions.
"Frequent" CENTCOM-#Damascus contact is now the norm & intelligence contacts continue, also.
#SDF-#Damascus talks continue & the US military is playing a direct role in encouraging them to move forward. An "American General" attends most of the talks in al-Dumayr Airbase & elsewhere; & the US is pushing the #SDF to make a deal, I was repeatedly told.
One thing that struck me the most was how local residents & civil society figures in every part of #Syria I visited were *unanimous* that the #SDF was a "problem" that urgently needed "fixing" -- an "occupier" seeking to divide, steal or destabilize #Syria.
~400,000 people, many from #Latakia & #Tartus have since been severed from their work -- most for 3-month investigations. Locals complained not of the firings themselves, but the lack of alternative work, warning that young men will turn to criminality w/o it.
#Syria's new caretaker gov't has found that ~30% of the public sector were "ghost" employees or loyalists rewarded with multiple salaries. Some village medical clinics in #Latakia had 150+ "security guards", each paid a salary, but none ever present at work.
Since #Assad's fall, the bread price has risen sharply -- exacerbated by a false improvement in SYP value (on Feb 1: $1:10,000 & on Feb 4: 8,000).
#Syria is in the midst of a serious liquidity crisis, pushing the humanitarian suffering to new levels.
