Jonathan Caverley's Avatar

Jonathan Caverley

@jcaverley

Political scientist who is a visiting senior fellow at IISS and professor (on leave) at the US Naval War College. Sure it works in practice, but how does it work in theory? Opinions are mine.

2,220
Followers
1,203
Following
48
Posts
22.08.2023
Joined
Posts Following

Latest posts by Jonathan Caverley @jcaverley

It is remarkable how little industry knows about the Navy and vice versa.

04.03.2026 00:12 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Ever word is calculated here: I'll be fine, keep my titles and credentials, and expect the world to still take my calls and publish my work.

27.02.2026 16:47 πŸ‘ 22 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

This is especially the case for defense software. Palantir, Anduril, etc. physical wares are loss-leaders for the underlying OS. If you think Lockheed’s path dependent power is high, just wait until defense’s Microsoft Windows emerges.

23.02.2026 08:01 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Back in 2020, Lindsay Cohn, Dani Lupton and I wrote about the danger of domestic law enforcement making itself indistinguishable from the military

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

18.01.2026 21:09 πŸ‘ 69 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I agree, which is why I fear Jay Kelly will win all the Oscars.

05.01.2026 07:41 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
The Regime Change Temptation in Venezuela If past is prologue, a U.S. attempt to overthrow Maduro would not end well.

β€œEven if a regime change operation succeeds at first, history again shows that long-term outcomes are often disappointing,” write Alexander Downes and Lindsey O’Rourke.

03.01.2026 19:17 πŸ‘ 33 πŸ” 13 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2
Post image

hey fellow authors, I received my Anthropic copyright settlement materials in the mail today. I thought I'd filed a claim already, but it turns out I needed to do so again. Might be worth double-checking or filing a new claim, just to be sure

You can do so here: www.anthropiccopyrightsettlement.com

06.12.2025 17:47 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Returning today from some European events on transatlantic relations. No doubt the colleagues I met are revising their priors further.

All such documents are tools of domestic as much as international politics. This one seems almost entirely aimed at the former.

www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

05.12.2025 06:28 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Write that book ("Globalkanization") now!!!!

01.12.2025 14:29 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

This is dead right. Elites in China, India, the US and elsewhere took Huntington’s naive essentialism and turned it into an instruction manual for mobilization. academic.oup.com/edited-volum...

01.12.2025 13:26 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

Indeed: Huntington was an early warning sign of how, amidst skyrocketing inequality, a small coterie of unpatriotic super elites would seek to tear down state structures while shouting racist narratives of blood and soil into the media that they control

01.12.2025 11:42 πŸ‘ 178 πŸ” 35 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 4
Preview
The Atlantic Alliance: Diverging Interests, Converging Policies Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US President Donald Trump’s re-election have prompted fears about the health and durability of the NATO alliance. Such fears appear excessive. Alliance members are ...

The central challenge is ensuring that growing strategic divergence does not undermine the very complementarities that make this new equilibrium effective. This requires clear, consistent statements of interests and reliably following through on commitments.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

28.11.2025 13:59 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

This is not zero-sum. A stronger European defence-industrial base enhances NATO deterrence and gives the United States the flexibility needed to manage increasing pressures elsewhere.

28.11.2025 13:59 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

A complementary division of labour is emerging:

Europe is becoming the Alliance’s industrial foundation: munitions, ground systems, air defence, and high-volume manufacturing.

The US continues to provide strategic enablers without rival: long-range strike, aerospace, and cutting-edge R&D.

28.11.2025 13:59 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Drawing on alliance theory and extensive data on defense-industrial expansion across Europe, we show that today’s strategic divergence is creating a healthier equilibriumβ€”one that increases Europe’s autonomy, strengthens NATO’s collective capacity, and supports U.S. global interests.

28.11.2025 13:59 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
The Atlantic Alliance: Diverging Interests, Converging Policies Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US President Donald Trump’s re-election have prompted fears about the health and durability of the NATO alliance. Such fears appear excessive. Alliance members are ...

In our new (open access!) Survival article, Ethan Kapstein and I argue Europe’s rapid rearmament and US focus elsewhere are enabling a more effective and sustainable transatlantic partnership...if its members are willing to acknowledge and maintain it.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

28.11.2025 13:59 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

would be bonkers if a bunch of rocket scientists had to leave the US for Europe because of fascism.

06.11.2025 10:44 πŸ‘ 56 πŸ” 20 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

β€œNo more foreign wars,” as the monkey’s paw curls shut.

06.09.2025 18:11 πŸ‘ 2390 πŸ” 336 πŸ’¬ 22 πŸ“Œ 9

The black box of academic publishing is dark inside indeed - and I've not even mentioned Manucript Central yet - but it also contains other academics doing their best as editors to steward your work with care and respect.

06.09.2025 23:35 πŸ‘ 318 πŸ” 19 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
Upgraded Mogami Set To Win SEA 3000 Japanese media has broken the story that the Upgraded Mogami is set to be the preferred design for a major Australian frigate purchase.

My short overview for @navalnews.com on the major news broken overnight in Japanese media that Australia now wants to acquire Upgraded Mogami aka 06FFM for the RAN under SEA 3000. As noted, no official statement by Canberra yet.
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

04.08.2025 20:24 πŸ‘ 28 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 5

This. The political economy of American higher education is deeply misunderstood even by most of the people within it. This is shocking considering the stakes involved as well as US elites' obsession with it.

29.07.2025 14:24 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
FIFA opens office at Trump Tower, New York - Inside World Football July 8 – FIFA has opened an office at Trump Tower in New York City, deepening its already close ties with the much-criticised US administration.Β  US President Donald Trump and FIFA supremo Gianni Infa...

People: World Cup can't happen now FIFA will pull out

football fans: FIFA will just do corruption

People: who even understands how to be corrupt well enough to navigate this situation?

FIFA:

www.insideworldfootball.com/2025/07/08/f...

08.07.2025 11:48 πŸ‘ 2433 πŸ” 679 πŸ’¬ 79 πŸ“Œ 92

Great footage, highly recommended watch for naval infrastructure enthusiasts. Note also the completely stripped down and cut open Type 209 boat. Something you don't see often in such footage.

20.06.2025 13:42 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Sirens: A Bombshell production: Bond markets, AI and DOGE2025 This is Sirens, a new series, brought to you by the Ladies of Bombshell - Loren DeJonge Schulman, Radha Iyengar Plumb, and Erin Simpson. In this episode, our hosts talk about why they are launching a ...

This is Sirens, brought to you by the Ladies of Bombshell. In Ep 1, our hosts talk about why they are launching a new podcast, reveal what horrible things they have discovered at the bottom of their work bags, and talk about issues that may lure men to their death.
sites.libsyn.com/92063/bonds-...

11.06.2025 01:59 πŸ‘ 24 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 3
Post image Post image

Star Trek - TMP: How is it that between Earth and the Klingon Empire -- the Federation's pacing threat -- Starfleet has one starship in drydock and that's it?

Where's the rest of the fleet? Who are they assigned to?

Oh, wait...

09.06.2025 16:20 πŸ‘ 19 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Automatic follow given the endorser.

09.06.2025 15:10 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

No one in the world more qualified than my colleague @lindsaypcohn.bsky.social to discuss the ramifications of the military in LA.

09.06.2025 09:19 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
AUKUS: When naval procurement sets grand strategy - Jonathan D. Caverley, 2023 Traditionally, a grand strategy lays out the trade-offs a state must make in pursuit of security, thereby setting all aspects of foreign policy, from trade deal...

Finally I argue here that because fleets take so long to develop, cost so much to build and operate, and last a very long time; they can shape a state's grand strategy as much as vice versa: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

03.06.2025 08:59 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
The Influence of Strategic Procurement on the Performance of the European Naval Defense Industry The naval defense industry plays a crucial role in national security, particularly in the context of global rearmament and shared threats. However, the industry’s performance in Europe has been hin...

Clever research design on an important subject from
Josselin Droff, Jade Guiberteau-Ricard, and Julien Malizard: www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...

03.06.2025 08:59 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0