Florian Gawehns

Der SPD helfen im Osten und Süden bald auch keine Rentner mehr. Isch over.

Despite the extensive discourse about the supposed end of manufacturing in Germany’s industrial heartland, the shift toward the AfD among workers remains rather moderate. The vote share in this occupational segment is roughly at the level of 2016.

I coded House Democrats' public statements on 2/28. Few referenced affordability explicitly (things like "health care" "groceries" etc.) or implicitly ("cost us billions" - but not counting "costly war"). Almost everyone referenced congressional authorization. Might change over time.

CQ finds that 2025 was the most partisan year for Congress in the history their roll-call analysis. 85.3% of roll call votes were party unity votes - 70% in the House and 93% in the Senate. Previous record (2-chamber average) was 74.6 percent in 2023. plus.cq.com/doc/news-841...

You seem to know Maine voters really well

What is this assessment based on?

As expected, personalisierung goes bbrrr. The Ländle says "Yes we Cem!"

I'm a bit surprised about the high number of "don't know" among independents

Wondering where the Trump administration might go next after the SCOTUS ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs?

We have a chart for you @bipartisanpolicy.org! Web version here: www.datawrapper.de/_/kvams/?v=5

And thanks to @bbkogan.bsky.social for reminding me to post here more often :)

President's Day reading recommendation: C.W. Goodyear's President Garfield. What a wunderkind Garfield was. A man born to very modest means in Ohio who got an education and rose and rose through hard work and decency. amzn.to/3MsPanC

Why House Democrats May Be More United Than They Seem Two factions of the Democratic Party in Congress are currently playing tug-of-war over the centerpieces of President Biden’s legislative agenda. Moderate Democr…

Virtually all of it. fivethirtyeight.com/features/why...

This is a common pattern over time. Minority party unity is usually lower than the majority party's, because a) they do not control the agenda, and b) their votes often do not determine the outcome, so they have more latitude to vote with their electoral interests.

No.

Great work, thanks for sharing!

🚨 NEW from VoteHub: the Trump Score 🚨

Trump's influence over Congress in 2025 was massive.
@tsyang27
shows who followed and who defied.

In the tradition of FiveThirtyEight’s presidential agreement projects. 🧵

Anatomy of a vote Watching House Republicans seize victory from the jaws of defeat.

Offering some play-by-play on yesterday‘s unusually long rule vote in the house. My latest on @misofact.bsky.social. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

Also, why do they pick Golden as an example? The guy won reelection three times in the toughest district.

You seem very invested in this. The disagreements are really not that substantive.

Individual policy moderation (in competitive districts?) and a strong national anti-corruption pro-democracy platform seem to be perfectly compatible. Or is the disagreement about national party vs. individual candidates?

It seems to me part of the disagreement stems from arguments about individual candidates (possibly in swing districts) vs. the national party. Building a personal brand with moderation on 2 or 3 issues can be an important part.

Fusion of legislative and executive powers through partisanship, like a parliamentary system. Except:
1. The legislative leadership is an extension of the executive, the reverse of parl. systems.
2. Less party unity on policy.

Strong correlation between state partisan lean and how often Democratic senators vote with Trump. Still, considerable variation between (e.g., GA vs. NV) and within (MN, DE, MD) Senate delegations.

1. My point was that GER does not allow for motions against *single ministers.*
2. Bundestag is a collective actor. The important variable is party support. A no-confidence vote requires intraparty conflict and/or conflict between coalition parties. In the US, Rs could "force" accountability too.

How many systems have such a direct legislative accountability? E.g. Germany doesn’t. And the justice system was pretty thoroughly rigged in parliamentary Hungary and Poland. It seems to me it’s more important to not make the office accountable to a single political party.

Thanks for sharing this, Lily. I’m more of an institutions scholar but noticed that the posting alludes to institutions too. I do wonder how survey-focused the ideal candidate should be?

The Struggles of Speaker Johnson Mike Johnson's narrow majority isn't his only problem.

Mike Johnson's historically narrow majority isn't the only, or even the biggest, problem he's faced as Speaker. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...

Julius again with the good stuff

All European media are reporting it as "he says he's not using force."

"Unleash American energy dominance" only topped by being "laser-focused"

The U.S. Senate infamously operates with a 3/5 threshold to cut off debate. 31 states have no supermajority threshold whatsoever. Seven states have one in both chambers. Data: Curry/Oldham 2025.