Jonathan Cristol

IMHO, that is not the Occam’s Razor here, which is just the fog of war. Plus actual technical reasons discussed in very good Gulf Int’l Forum panel yesterday that is probably up on YouTube.

We have accidentally shot down our own planes, too. These things are unfortunate but they happen.

Barak Ravid on @cnn.com just now reporting that IDF hit Assembly of Experts, while they were voting on new SL.

Not sure how I feel about this strike from many perspectives, including strategic.

But that ‘not sure’ is genuine, not a no-courage-of-convictions ‘no.’

It seems like many commentators are assuming the goal is regime change and thus it will be a long war; but Trump keeps implying it’s leadership decapitation, even referring to ‘new leaders’ when they’re not new at all.

"The Supreme Leader of the Revolution was martyred." - Fars News Agency confirming the death of Ayatollah Khamenei

Among many things driving me crazy in the reporting on Iran is referring to the SL as “the Ayatollah” as if there is but one and as if that is a purely political title.

It’s a religious title, there are many Ayatollahs, and the SL’s elevation to that title was not actually earned.

(I grew up in the 1980s when Khomeini was the big bad bad guy; and little did I know that *his* successor would actually be worse. Everything can always get worse.)

I’m not unhappy the SL is dead; but I’m an anxious person and I don’t assume things will be better under whoever comes next; nor do I assume the regime will fall.

But it is at least *possible* the situation will improve inside Iran in the medium-long term.

As of now I have no assumptions.

There is an actual process to replace the SL; though it is unlikely to happen while under fire.

Moreover, Mojtaba (his son) was never going to be the successor; and I am deeply deeply skeptical that there would be an IRGC takeover (although absent the ability of AoE to meet, that is possible).

I will say that Trump’s authoritarian-style and aversion to the truth is an actual off-ramp here; because while I share concerns about ‘how does this end,’ Trump will declare victory no matter what, and his people will go along with his assessment.

So it ends when Trump gets bored. Or something.

And “total immunity” for everyone?

Is that ours to give? If it is, does that not also imply a US takeover of justice system? What would we do if a future govt didn’t honor that ‘agreement’? 4/x

And to whom are they supposed to surrender?

Is that Trump just talking nonsense? or is it meant to imply a future land invasion? 3/x

Are we really going to kill every single IRGC member who does not “lie down their arms and surrender”?

How are we counting “IRGC” members? Does Basij count? Do editors at IRGC-linked papers count? Do foremen at Khatam-an-Nabia construction sites count? 2/x

I have (mostly rhetorical) questions.

Is ‘regime change’ being used as a synonym for ‘leadership decapitation’?

They are not the same. 1/x

Here he goes with his overtly racist section of the speech, referring to Somalis as pirates; and not acknowledging that the Somali community in the US is here because they needed to *leave* the dangers in Somali.

Is this a good speech? No.

But has he gone full Praetor Shinzon, also no. So that’s something.

For now.

Trump says he hopes tariffs replace income taxes—- makes sense; because tariffs are regressive.

Tempted though I am to live sky this thing; I have to save my energy for the fourth or fifth hour of it.

The only thing good about this headline is that the plural implies that they’re at least not preparing for an invasion.

I totally agree.

FWIW, I think we played the end of the Cold War skillfully and also got lucky with weak opponents; now we have strong opponents (some skilled some less skilled) and we are eating the game pieces while demanding (at gunpoint) another helping of paste.

I’m no fan of the IRI, but things can always get worse. And if he tries a Venezuela style maneuver to take out the SL and then just let the Assembly of Experts choose a new SL, then they will almost definitely get worse.

OTOH, if he prevented officers from attending schools that actively discouraged military officers from attending, he’d be even more of a laughingstock.

I’d ask if he understands the irony of that position; but despite Hegseth attending Princeton and Harvard, I think the answer is clear.

#notallrealists

And I don’t see how anyone in that agency can sleep at night…

… unless of course they’re totally psyched to be a Trump shock troop.

Do we need border security?

Yes.

Do we need (and have) honorable and decent law enforcement officers in a wide range of federal and local agencies/departments?

Also yes.

Do we need ICE in its current form?

Heck no.

I don’t see how anyone with any sense of decency — or patriotism — can work for ICE (before or) after this latest atrocity.

And is he trying to say a few US National Guard will maintain the peace in Venezuela? Is that why he’s going on with his zero murder delusion.

I don’t even understand this at all.

Do we even have people on the ground there at all, let alone the hundreds of thousands of troops that eventually had to withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan.

I find removing Maduro far more defensible than summarily executing people on boats.

But — “we’re running Venezuela” and maybe taking the oil— is ludicrous in the first instance, and criminal in the second instance.

Happy New Year, friends!!