Time is but a window, they'll be back
17.02.2026 02:37
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Time is but a window, they'll be back
BRING BACK CHANNEL ONE
The Employment Cost Index shows continued deceleration in compensation growth in Q4. All metrics of wage growth are slowing even as inflation has gotten stuck confirming that labor demand < greatly reduced labor supply
Yikes, consumer confidence plunged in January to even lower than the depths of the covid shutdown. Political turmoil and job market fears obviously contributing to the drop.
Congrats to whoever wished on the monkey's paw for something to divert the public's attention away from affordability...
Send reskeet <GO>
had a really interesting conversation last night with an investor and died-in-the-wool capitalist where the conclusion was something like, most Americans don't realize that functioning capital markets and the rule of law are America's actual superpowers and those things could absolutely end
lotta people seem to forget Jay Powell is a lawyer (complimentary)
“.. Theme over the past few months: market says bye bye bye to rate cuts.”
- Schwab
2025 job market weakness by theme:
--Tariffs: Manufacturing -68k, warehousing/transportation/wholesale/retail -74k
--DOGE: Fed govt jobs -274k, scientific R&D -20k
--AI: IT industry jobs -54k
--Housing: Construction up just 14k, weakest yr since 2020, 2nd weakest since 2010
chart: the unemployment rate for black workers is up 1.5 percentage points in the last few months through September, per BLS data charted by Fred
Somebody ask Powell about the Black Unemployment Rate pls
After a dearth of economic data, the latest #JOLTS report is out this morning for both Sept and Oct 2025.
Main findings:
- hires rate continues to be depressed, at rates we haven't seen since 2013
- quits rate lowest since 2014
- layoffs ticked up slightly
Note: these ignore low points in 2020
Chart of real median weekly earnings per the Bureau of Labor Statistics via St Louis Fred. Annualized and updated to year 2024 prices, they rose from $55k/year in 2015 to $61k/year this year.
Hanging out on the BLS website ahead of the JOLTS release as one does and noticed this astonishing good news about inflation adjusted median earnings, which are up 11% over the last ten years. Annualized it in 2024 dollars to make it a little more intuitive.
Last call for our Shadow Survey! We close it up tonight. Provide your views & you will get a complete set of results to ponder ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. Looking at
@peark.es @conorsen.bsky.social @skandaamarnath.bsky.social @claudia-sahm.bsky.social...
survey.alchemer.com/s3/8483999/M...
I think this is an important next step in our discussions of inflation: It makes a difference *which* prices are rising.
Community college enrollment has been declining since 2009/10. The optimal policy response to this depends on the root of this decline.
I'm thrilled @nber.org today released my working paper with Harvard PhD Joe Winkelmann titled:
"Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment"
You can still find property level climate risk scores on Redfin
Zillow Removes Climate Risk Scores From Home Listings
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/c...
Went down a Fred rabbit hole, and it looks like, as a % of population, we have more people employed in "Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services" now (sept 2025) than we did in 1990 (link: fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1OjRj)
(spreadsheets didn't "kill" accounting)
The debate over is-it-10%-or-20%-of-households-propping-up-consumer-spending is (very!) interesting to me as a macro insider. But either way, the main point for the public is that spending by a minority of affluent/ wealthy households is increasing, while the majority of people are treading water.
September jobs report coming out on Nov 20 per BLS, which still exists
I need Joyce Carol Oates to be mean to me online so I can get my life together
Amazon Kindle currently has my new book availalbe for FREE as an e-book online right now! Buy it now for $0.00 before they change it back!
Link: shorturl.at/uPZC3
This is great, thank you, look forward to reading!
A chart with the University of Michigan's consumer survey question about the expected change in the unemployment rate on the inverted right axis and the actual change in unemployment rate on the left. They tend to move together. The unemployment rate time series ends in August 2025 and the expected change in unemployment continues through October, where it is in the ballpark of the recessions of the early 80s, early 90s, and 2007-09. There's no character limit on alt text, is there?
hi, chart expert here! this is not funny, charts only do this when they're in extreme stress.
Data as of 4 November shows a break in the upward move of the money market MCI, which coincided with the announcement of the end of QT. In other words, money market conditions are not as tight post announcement
Cool index, is it global or just US? Looking at US sofr/repo vs iorb/fed funds spreads, it looks to me like month-end tightness in money markets exacerbated by the US Treasury running up a big cash balance during the government shutdown (payments delayed, taxes still coming in).
Look at the distribution of z-values from medical research!
Yes, and core goods were the slice of prices where consumers used to benefit most directly from competition and innovation--the category was flat from 2000 to 2019. So any increase is higher than normal.
Shock in Au
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