Central projection figures here (note there is a lot of uncertainty, especially for 2027, when it comes to EU national emigration, asylum numbers and the effects of the Earned Settlement policy):
YE Dec 25: 182,000
YE Jun 26: 69,000
YE Dec 26: -41,000
YE Jun 27: -123,000
YE Dec 27: -140,000
Yeah it's on the counter next to the tills and it's called "the little book of calm"
Not being bombed a big incentive
Imagine going five years of your adult life with a normal economy. Couldn’t be me.
Great Charlemagne column on how great Europe is
economist.com/europe/2026/...
Chicken Out
Trump would certainly CO at $150 a barrel
Good thread to get a grounding in respect to gas setting the price, but below shows exactly why anyone who says "just break the link to gas" is at best uniformed, at worst completely silly.
It is really not hard to guesstimate the SMRC of gas. So what does this mean?
Well...
China is building reactors at an unprecedented pace — but the rest of the world is lagging far behind
India's economy is smaller than thought. But it is growing faster. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
During Brexit the stereotype was of a sunburnt Brit in Spain who didn't speak Spanish.
In some ways India's economy is more embedded with the Gulf than it is with the rest of south Asia. Most of India's trade with Pakistan, for instance, passes through Dubai.
Extracts from this week's Essential India newsletter. www.economist.com/newsletters/...
Dubai is very south Asian and multiethnic. Think Reform is more British-emigrant coded.
Jansen Ganesh is on fire in this column on the UK’s role in the Iran conflict
www.ft.com/content/eaee...
New Interview: www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...
India's economy is smaller than thought. But it is growing faster. www.economist.com/finance-and-...
The majority of “Dubai expats” come from South Asia and emerging Asia, not just labourers/cleaners but middle class professionals. One of the most important flows of people/remittances across EMs.
Fascinating how absent this is from the image war around Dubai. www.ft.com/content/a7bf...
Aramco made a profit of $160bn in 2022 up from $110bn the year before but the total non-US share is just $60bn
I find this result puzzling. There was no increased tax take from the oil companies? And why is the US so dominant? Is it that national oil companies aren’t typically listed?
Don’t like to leave them alive?
Moral hazard for train drivers
Yeh and I think many people think of anti-climate change policy as a form of charity. It’s something you do when you’re rich not when you’re struggling.
Also depends what perspective. Downstream O&G is pretty capital intensive too.
Should be reflected in the cost of capital.Return on equity for fossil fuels is higher than for renewables.
Popping out for a bag of Shah Rukh Khan endorsed cement
Would it be possible to live a full and complete life in India only using products endorsed by Shah Rukh Khan? I think so
That’s another way of saying people make saving decisions.
Yes income, savings and consumption jointly determined. But it is a possible macro chain to work from an increase in (desired) saving to a reduction in (actual) income which leaves actual saving below desired saving. This is the basis of the Keynesian cross and paradox of thrift.
Since the cost of a net zero energy system ought to be evaluated relative to a counterfactual of using more natural gas. Higher natural gas prices make net zero cheaper despite nothing changing about the out-of-pocket costs.
This is why people hate economists.
In standard Keynesianism those consumption and savings decisions don’t always go to plan.
